Overlooking the near-term worries and investing in fundamentally strong companies will bear fruits in the long run.
The stock markets have just made everyone a lot poorer. From its peak in January 2008, an estimated $300 billion has been wiped out. How frightening is that number? Every year all the work done by all the Indians adds up to some $1,000 billion. Now take 120 days of all that work by every Indian and light a match to it. And watch it go up in flames. That is the extent of the loss of wealth from the recent market downturn.
No wonder, then, that every expert and every media channel is trying to figure out whether the recent 20 per cent upswing from the lows of July, 2008 is for real or – as they say in colourful language that the SPCA (animal rights activitsts) may not appreciate – a ‘dead cat bounce’? Expectations that a resurgent Congress-led UPA coalition will push through reforms while on its last legs have given the market steam.
The weakening prices of crude oil and food products in the global markets have added a further ray of hope. But the markets are still nervous about company results. Companies are still making money but the rate of growth of these profits, grumble the worriers, seems to look more like that cat – before it actually died. What if the world grinds to a halt and India stops in its tracks?
What if everything actually dies down into a nothingness?
Invest, don’t gamble
Well, if everything does end up in a nothingness, the last thing you need to worry about is the value of the stocks you own. The first piece of advice is that - if you are investing in shares - you need to be an optimist. If you are not an optimist, don’t invest in shares. Buy a plot of land, grow your own food, keep enough firewood and bunker in.
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The second piece of advice: once you have determined that you are an optimist, don’t be a greedy brat. Memories are short.
In December 2007 – which is some 240 days ago – most people were optimists and, worse, were greedy. They wanted to make a return of 20 per cent every month. Some would settle for 10 per cent a week! If you wish to aim for those kind of returns, head off to Macau or Las Vegas and gamble. It is this rampant greed and gambling that led to the wipe out of $300 billion in wealth.
Stock markets are supposed to be a place to invest your extra money for the long term. People, unfortunately, use the returns from the stock market as a place to make their primary source of income. Even educated doctors and engineers – clearly the brightest people in the world who have studied and worked for decades to establish a steady income – end up rolling the dice on their hard-earned savings.
A steady and patient investor in the Indian stock markets would have made nearly 20 per cent every year for the past 28 years.
The steady investor would have made about 160 times his initial investment over this 28-year time period that has seen Indian politics head from bad to worse; the Indian sub-continent terrorised by assassinations and riots; and a global environment that has seen some of the most severe recessions in history. Since 1980, India has had eight governments – five of these have been coalitions. And, over this 28-year period, India’s GDP has had an average rate of growth of 6.2 per cent per annum. One of the best rates of growth of any country in the world.
The long-term potential for the growth of the Indian economy has not changed.
The long term potential for making your extra money earn more money while you go about your daily work and business has not changed. What has changed is the greed of the gambling crowds. That greed has now turned to a panic-like fear. Last time I checked, India still had that one billion population and smart entrepreneurs that everyone was so vocal about when share prices were on the upswing.
Underlying strength
Sure, the world has changed and there is a need to continue re-visiting the “India investment thesis”. Oil prices have increased.
Food prices have zoomed. And the cost of borrowing money has risen. And we have an election coming up. All of this will cause some “slowdown” and some pain. There is no doubt about that. But a lot of these factors are cyclical – their importance tends to fade or shine over time. We have had elections before - we had 7 elections in the 1980 to 2008 time period. We are still around – and relatively more prosperous as a country.
Why should things be worse after the next election?
The millions of Indian consumers will still demand more services and products. Companies will still find a way to satisfy those needs – and export to the global market place. As an investment manager, the challenge is not figuring out whether India has a future or not but, rather, to identify companies and managements that can build solid long-term businesses.
And this without cheating their minority shareholders, taking any undue risks (trying to hit every ball for a six like some of our prized batsmen), or falling asleep at the helm. You should try to stay away from the herds as they stampede into the stock market when they are greedy (2007) and prepare ourselves for times (the last six months) when they scramble out and head for the exit in panic. Profits are made when you can spot the difference between perception and reality. Today, people perceive stock markets as the worst place to put your money.
The reality is that there are many companies that will do well over the next few years whose share prices have been hammered. These are great stocks to buy because of the underlying strength of their businesses. So, as the short term speculators sell the stocks, we are happily buying the businesses that those underlying stocks represent.
The author is a Director of Quantum AMC that manages the Quantum Mutual Funds