- Bank mergers will happen along with capitalization; bailout of shadow lenders unlikely unless the problem is systemic. Private banks have long growth runway. Top picks: HDFC Bank, State Bank of India
- Government focus expected to shift to large infrastructure projects; push to fix power supply chain problems. Buy: L&T, NTPC, ONGC, Oil India
- Defense budgets unlikely to go up; disinvestment likely to keep pressure on state-run stocks. Buy: Bharat Electronic, L&T
- RBI likely to cut rates and inject liquidity over next few months, which should be good for rate-sensitive stocks. Banks, autos, real estate, mortgages to benefit
- BAML Economist expects RBI to transfer $14 billion to $42 billion of surplus reserves, which could provide the government room to recapitalize state-run banks and spend more on infrastructure
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