| Four negative sessions were followed by a partial recovery on Friday but week-on-week, the market lost considerable ground. The Nifty ended down 5.05 per cent at 5608 points after hitting an intra-day low of 5394 on Thursday. |
| The Sensex was down 4.29 per cent. The Defty lost 5.75 per cent as the rupee softened somewhat. The FIIs were massive sellers while the Indian mutual funds were almost neutral. Breadth was negative on week-on-week basis but it was positive on Friday. |
| The broad BSE 500 was down 4.06 per cent while the CNX Midcap lost 4.07 per cent. The Nifty Junior was the best performing index with a loss of only 1.55 per cent. Volumes were low through the week and lowest on Friday during the recovery. |
| Outlook: The market is most likely to swing through the range of Nifty 5350-5750 through settlement week. Monday is quite likely to be uptrending but there is powerful resistance starting at 5675. Intra-day volatility is likely to be in the 250-300 Nifty range. |
| Rationale: Friday's upmove was driven by short-covering in both cash and derivatives. This week is likely to see profit-booking by the "shorts" in the F&O segment. That could push prices up but there seems insufficient volume to cause a full-fledged recovery. |
| The market has performed a double (actually multiple) top, which is bearish. On the downside, support at 5400 seems strong. If that breaks, the next reliable support is 5200. |
| Counter-view: If FII attitude changes to positive or volumes jump beyond expected levels with the short-covering, the market could swing beyond 5750 and all the way to 5950. This doesn't seem likely but it could happen. |
| Bulls & bears: Quite a few stocks made strong recoveries on Friday but most of the price gains were obviously due to short covering. The IT sector saw some hope in the rupee correction and Infosys and Tech Mahindra were among the best performers. Among other stocks, Tata Tele and Bajaj Auto looked genuinely promising. |
| MICRO TECHNICALS |
| AUROBINDO PHARMA Current Price: 502 Target Price: 480 |
| The stock broke an important support at 520 and it saw a volume expansion on the downside breakout. It is already at a 20-month low and it has a likely target of 480. Keep a stop at 515 and go short. |
| BAJAJ AUTO Current Price: 2543 Target Price: 2675 |
| One stock that rose steadily through a bearish week. It has a possible target of 2675. Keep a stop at 2530 and go long. Book partial profits at 2575 where there is some resistance. The stock is showing signs of coming out of a long bearish phase, so it may be worth keeping a delivery position for another six weeks. |
| INFOSYS Current Price: 1558 Target Price: 1650 |
| After hitting a 15-month low, Infy developed a promising short-term formation in the last three sessions. It has the potential to bounce till the 1650 level but this is very likely to be a correction inside a long-term bearish trend. Keep a stop at 1535 and go long. Book partial profits at above 1605. |
| NEYVELI LIGNITE Current Price: 214 Target Price: 225, 260 |
| The stock rose strongly on Friday with a big volume expansion. It will hit a resistance between 220-225 and that's a minimum intra-day target. If it closes above 225, the stock has a target of 260. Keep a stop at 205 and go long. Book partial profits above 220. |
| TECH MAHINDRA Current Price: 1028 Target Price: 1100 |
| The stock has made a bottoming formation at current levels after seeing a 50 per cent correction. It could move back up till the level of 1100 before it hits serious resistance again. Keep a stop at 1020 and go long. |
| (The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.) |
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