Short-term outlook for the market remains negative: Devang Shah

10000 & 10500 levels is strong support & resistance levels respectively based on option open interest data, says Shah

NIFTY     
CLOSE- 10195.15 (17.03.2018)
 
Market failed to sustain at higher levels & extended fall further as expected last week & closed 3rd consecutive week in negative territory. One can expect market to trend towards short term targets levels as mentioned below. As market is also near short term support levels, one should also watch out market behaviour near first lower support zone of 10100-10000 levels on nifty for any kind of short term possible bottom. But Trader should strictly follow trend till it reverses.
 
Short term wave count & Structures are varying. It looks like ending diagonal or wave-c of (Y) possibility as per chart attached. One should watch out market behaviour at lower end support levels to conclude from any one of possible structure in short term.10000 levels on nifty is very important support to watch out in short term, Close below it will lead to sharp fall till 9700 levels on nifty in short term.

 

Short-term outlook for the market remains negative till Nifty trades below 10479 levels and expecting targets in the range of 10100-9980 levels in short term. Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,968 levels and expecting targets in the range of 12000-12200 levels in medium term.
 
Global Market particularly US Market behaviour is also to watch out apart from Domestic development for short term trend of market. Broader Market ( Midcap/small cap Indices) is still outperforming in short term. It closed weekly in positive territory. One should also watch out broader market behaviour as well to get further clue for short term trend of market.

 
It looks like TIME wise wave-IV correction & will last it at least till March end before final wave-V UP begins as per my expectation. Any kind of such short term correction or consolidation is buying opportunity for medium to long term Investment perspectives till medium term reverses.
 
BANK NIFTY also closed weekly in positive territory. It’s also trading in range in short term. It has completed wave-X pull back rally near recent high of 25,780 levels in short term. One can expect lower levels target1-23900, target2-23600 & in extreme case target3-23300 levels in this wave-IV correction till it reverses in short term.25,780 is now short term reversal levels on bank nifty.

 
10000 & 10500 levels is strong support & resistance levels respectively based on option open interest data so far for this month series. Market will remain very volatile in this corrective phase.
 
Momentum indicators Daily KST & daily MACD came to BUY indicating voltality to persist in short term. One should be stock specific & follow the trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses. Close above short term reversal levels will finally confirm end of short term correction & further rally towards medium term higher levels targets.
 
 
Stock Picks:
 
IOC- SELL
CLOSE – Rs 183.80

TARGET – Rs 175
 
IOC closed weekly in negative territory. Its looks like triangular consolidation pattern as per daily chart. Its daily momentum indicators are in SELL. One can SELL with stop loss of 194 for the target of 175 levels in short term.
 
DHFL- BUY
CLOSE – Rs- 513
TARGET – Rs 560
 
DHFL closed weekly in positive territory. It looks like possibility of end of short term correction. Its daily momentum indicators came in to BUY. Risk reward is favorable to BUY at current levels. One can BUY with a stop loss of Rs 480 for the target of Rs 560 in short-term.

 
BATA- BUY
CLOSE – Rs- 702
TARGET – Rs 740
 
BATA closed the weekly in negative territory. It’s consolidating in range as per daily chart. Risk reward is favourable to buy at current levels. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 680 for the target of Rs 740 in short-term.
 
HEROMOTO- SELL
CLOSE – Rs- 3545
TARGET – Rs 3460
 
HEROMOTO closed the weekly in negative territory. Its looks like triangular consolidation pattern as per daily chart. Its daily momentum indicators went in to SELL. One can SELL with stop loss of 3652 for the target of 3460 levels in short term.

 
Disclaimer: The analyst may / may not have a position in the scrips mentioned above