Short-term outlook for the market remains negative: Devang Shah

NIFTY      
CLOSE- 9998.05 (09.03.2018)

Market extended correction further as expected & closed 4 th consecutive week in negative territory. It has achieved first range of short term targets levels near recent lows as expected last week . It made a low of 9951.90 levels on nifty & 32,483.84 levels on Sensex so far in this correction. It has broken psychological support of 10000 levels on nifty One should expect market to trend towards second short term targets levels as mentioned below till it reverses.

It looks like extension in wave-C of (Y) from wave count perspectives as per chart attached as of now. One can expect still some more pain in this wave-IV correction before bottoming out in short term. Trader should strictly follow trend till it reverses.

As mentioned last week, Global market particularly US Market put further pressure in this ongoing correction. One should watchout its behavior & correlation in short term. Broader market ( Midcap & Small cap) Indices which was out performing last week, has shown fresh round of selling this week. It also looks like last climax stage of selling in broader market till it reveres in short term.

Short-term outlook for the market remains negative till Nifty trades below 10228 levels and expecting target of 9870-9700 levels in short term. Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,968 levels and expecting targets in the range of 12000-12200 levels in medium term.

It looks like TIME wise wave-IV correction & will last it at least till March end before final wave-V UP begins as per my expectation. Any kind of such short term correction or consolidation is buying opportunity for medium to long term Investment perspectives till medium term reverses.

Nifty Bank also closed weekly in negative territory. It has also started extension in wave-C of (Y) correction. It has achieved my both short term targets levels near recent lows as expected last week. It made a low of 23631 levels so far in this correction. One can expect further lower levels targets till in the range of 23440-23300 levels as per chart attached. 24528 levels crucial resistance & reversal levels for short term.

10000 & 10500 levels is strong support & resistance levels respectively based on option open interest data so far for expiry perspectives next week. Market will remain very volatile in this corrective phase.

Momentum indicators Daily KST & daily MACD both are in SELL supporting short term trend. One should be stock specific & follow the trend with trail stop loss levels till it reverses. Close above short term reversal levels will finally confirm further rally towards medium term higher levels targets.
 
Stock Picks: 
 
AXIS BANK- SELL
CLOSE – Rs- 498
TARGET – Rs 470

AXIS BANK closed weekly in negative territory. Its extneding in short term correction. Its weekly momentum indicators are in BUY. It closed below 20 DMA. One can SELL with a stop loss of Rs 532 for the target of Rs 470 levels in short-term. 

 
VEDANTA- SELL
CLOSE – Rs- 276
TARGET – Rs 260
 
Vedata closed the weekly in negative territory. It closed below 20 DMA. Its daily momentum indicators are in SELL. It managed to hold crucial support of 20 DMA . One can SELL with a stop loss of Rs 298 for the target of Rs 260 levels in short-term. 
 
BATA- BUY
CLOSE – Rs-706
TARGET – Rs 735/755
 
BATA closed the weekly in positive territory. Its outperforming in short term. Its daily momentum indicators came in to BUY. Risk Reward is favorable to BUY at current levels. One can buy with a stop loss of Rs 673 for the target of Rs 735/755 levels in short-term. 

 
Disclaimer: The analyst may / may not have a position in the scrips mentioned above