Monsoon rains over South Asia will probably be near normal this season, the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum said on Thursday, easing concern about the return of drought conditions that parched crops last year.
“Based on the prevailing global climate indicators and forecasts from statistical and dynamic models, rainfall over South Asia is likely to be within the normal range,” A K Srivastava, a coordinator for the forum, told reporters in Pune.
Rains in the June-September season are critical to South Asian nations, where farming is a key contributor to economic growth. India’s driest monsoon in 37 years last year caused drought in half the country and forced record imports of sugar and cereals. Dry weather in Pakistan lead to shortages in wheat and sugar causing food riots, and reduced tea production in Sri Lanka, the world’s fourth-biggest grower.
Presentations made at the three-day meeting by some member countries of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and by Asia’s regional climate forum headed by China predicted that falls over north Indian states, the main grain-growing areas, may be below average. The southern states may get above normal rain.
Weather bureau officials from countries including Japan, South Korea, the UK and France, participated in the forum’s first meeting held to address improvements needed in weather forecasts in South Asia. The event, which concludes on Thursday, is organized by the state-run India Meteorological Department, or IMD, and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
Irrigation Water
The IMD may announce its forecast for the country on April 20, D Sivananda Pai, a director, said April 13. The prediction is among the most widely watched indicator as the monsoon is the main source of irrigation for the nation’s 235 million farmers.
A weakening of the El Nino weather event is a “positive sign” for the country’s monsoon and repeat of last year’s drought in unlikely, Ajit Tyagi, director general of the IMD, said in an interview last month. Weather observations indicate the country may receive normal rainfall, farm secretary PK Basu told reporters on March 19.
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The weather bureau considers rains to be near normal if they are between 96 and 104 per cent of the long-range average.
The monsoon typically sets over the southern Kerala state by the first week of June.