Monsoon is yet to retreat even 11 days after the scheduled withdrawal date of September 1. But sowing for most kharif crops has been completed and farmers have shifted their focus to production and price trends of various crops.
From this viewpoint, the emerging scenario of cotton, oilseeds, pulses and maize is fairly clear. For the rest, data on sowing is still awaited. However, weather conditions for the remaining part of the kharif season and the build-up of pests and diseases still need to be watched.
The cumulative rainfall in the country between June 1 and the first week of September has been just 3 per cent below the long-period average, which from an agricultural viewpoint is deemed normal. While the north-western region has received 9 per cent more rainfall, central India has remained deficient by about 11 per cent. The rainfall deficiency in the other regions is just 2 to 3 per cent.
The biggest worry is Marathwada, where rainfall is deficient by a whopping 37 per cent, and western Madhya Pradesh with a deficit of 24 per cent. Though the Vidarbha and Saurashtra regions have also reported about 22 per cent rain deficiency, plantings have not suffered much in these areas.
The water shortage in 81 major reservoirs until September 5 was 11 per cent below last year's level, though it was 7 per cent higher than last 10-year's average water stock. The shortfall was accounted for almost wholly by the reservoirs in the south. However, more rains have been predicted for the entire southern region, including Marathwada.
The sowing of pulses is over and it is almost certain that the production will drop considerably, necessitating higher imports to bridge the gap between demand and supply. The department of consumer affairs expects the imports of pulses to rise to 3 million tonnes from last year's 2.7 million tonnes.
More From This Section
The area under pulses has shrunk by about 17 per cent to 9.95 million hectares against 12 million hectares last year. A significant reduction in the pulses acreage has been reported from Andhra Pradesh (minus 34 per cent), Maharashtra and Karnataka (minus 32 per cent each) largely due to insufficient rains in the main sowing season.
The output is also anticipated to decline because the crop growth in western Maharashtra and Marathwada is reported to be stunted, whereas crops in Karnataka are under attack from pests.
However, groundnut acreage is marginally down by about 2 per cent to 5 million hectares. The shortfall is largely due to the diversion of area under groundnut to soybean in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra.
The prices of oilseeds and edible oils are likely to decline due to higher domestic production and a significant drop in international prices. This may be good news for the government which is grappling with high inflation, but bad news for oilseed growers.
Cotton production is also expected to be normal despite a marginal 2 per cent reduction in the cultivable area. The yields are likely to be higher thanks to favourable weather and higher plantings (over 80 per cent) under the pest-protected transgenic Bt-cotton hybrids.
However, cotton prices are expected to remain rangebound due to firm domestic demand and a bullish trend in the global markets due to forecasts of a drop in output.
Maize prices, too, are likely to remain firm in the wake of a marginally slow growth in domestic output and increased demand from the poultry and starch industries. The acreage under the crop has shrunk but only slightly -– from 7.28 million hectares last year to nearly 7 million hectares this year.
However, the late withdrawal of monsoon bodes well for the rabi maize which can potentially offset any output shortfall in the kharif.
Meanwhile, the weather office on Thursday warned of isolated heavy to very heavy downpour in coastal Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and south coastal Orissa in the next two days. It has also projected fairly widespread rainfall along the west coast and north-eastern parts of peninsular India between September 14 and 16.
A fresh low pressure area is anticipated to develop over the west-central Bay of Bengal, off the Andhra coast, around September 16, which may lead to more rainfall in the region.