Stock bearing the brunt of Adani Group rout is at risk of more losses

Adani Group stocks have seen more than $132 billion of market value wiped out since the explosive Hindenburg Research report, but none is hit as bad as Adani Total Gas Ltd.
 

Its shares have lost more three quarters of their value since the short seller report was published on Jan. 24. It was the group’s most richly valued stock before that and also has relatively less liquidity. Hindenburg had calculated that, on average, seven of the conglomerate’s shares were overvalued by 85%.

Adani Total was down by its limit in early trading on Monday. It has done so each day since Jan. 27, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Indian exchanges tweaked the daily limit for the stock to 5% from 20% as the selloff worsened.

Adani Total Gas “is under fundamental as well as technical pressure, which has led to the downfall,” said Abhay Agarwal, a fund manager with Piper Serica Advisors Pvt. A fall in European gas prices is adding to company-specific woes and “will put pressure on the profitability,” he added.

 

Concerns about access to overseas financing at the Adani Group remain even as the equity-market shock from allegations of stock manipulation and accounting fraud leveled by Hindenburg is starting to abate. 

Billionaire Gautam Adani and his companies have taken steps from repaying loans to pledging to reduce leverage ratios but debt and cashflow levels continue to worry investors.

Following the Hindenburg report, French energy giant TotalEnergies SE put a multi-billion dollar plan to produce green hydrogen with Adani Group on hold, in a setback to the gas unit. Another concern are Adani Total Gas’ debt levels.

The company faces combined maturing debt payments in the fourth quarter of its 2023 fiscal year and the 2024 fiscal year that amount to more than its cash balance, according to an exchange filing. It also has, however, cash flow from assets of 9.32 billion rupees.

 

The stock’s float, or the amount available to trade in the public market, is about 19%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the lowest among the group after Adani Wilmar Ltd. MSCI Inc. reduced what it considers the firm’s freely tradable shares in its latest quarterly index review but has since delayed the implementation.