Stock market outlook: Bull run to continue in 2021; Nifty may hit 15,000

If the current bull sentiment remains intact, the Sensex may scale 51,000 while the Nifty50 may hit 15,000 in 2021

Despite the carnage that the Covid-19 pandemic brought upon the markets early this year, bulls had the last laugh in calendar year 2020. From their 3-year lows hit on March 24, 2020, the S&P BSE Sensex and the NSE's Nifty50 have recouped over 80 per cent till December 30. On December 31, Nifty50 scaled Mount 14,000 in intra-day deals and hit a fresh record high of 14,010.15. The Sensex, meanwhile, hit new peak of 47,865.56.

Going forward, experts say the market's trajectory in the calendar year 2021 (CY21) will be guided more by developments surrounding Covid-19 and its vaccine, oil prices, global central bank policies, and the US dollar's movement at the global level, corporate earnings and the government's policies to revive economic growth (within and outside the scope of the Budget) amid rising inflation. 

ICICI Securities, for instance, expects the Nifty50 to hit 14,900 levels in 2021 in a bull-case scenario. "However, if market bullishness reverts to average sentiment, the base case fundamental value is around 13,500, which indicates flat returns for CY21," wrote Vinod Karki and Siddharth Gupta of ICICI Securities in a December 22 note. READ ABOUT IT HERE

In this backdrop, what do technical charts suggest for benchmarks and sectoral indices:

S&P BSE SENSEX: The index has seen a tremendous rally after conquering the previous record high of 42,273 levels. This sharp up-move indicates a strong momentum with strength staying highly optimistic as per the weekly chart. Now, the bullishness may get firmer if the index manages to sustain above the support of 45,000 levels. The trend is heading towards 51,000 mark. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTY50: The monthly chart indicates a breakout above the high of 12,430 levels, hit in January 2020. The current momentum shows the index has a strong buying momentum, and may move towards the 14,600 to 15,000-mark if it holds the support of 13,000. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also showing a firm buying momentum, despite being in the overbought territory, signifying that the selling pressure is getting absorbed comfortably. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTYBANK: The index is heading towards lifetime high of 32,613 levels. This move has a strong support of 29,000 levels. The current momentum suggests a firm upside till the index manages to hold ground above 30,700 levels on a closing basis as per the daily chart. The "Golden cross" has indeed confirmed a strength and positive sentiment is likely to push the index towards higher levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTY IT: The star performer of 2020 is gradually rising upward with the support of 50-days moving average (DMA), currently placed at 22,129 levels. Also, the successful crossings of relevant resistances have led to fresh buying momentum from earlier levels of 22,500 and 20,200 levels. The overall underneath trend indicates that buying momentum will emerge on any healthy correction. On the upside, the index may scale 25,000 to 25,800 levels with the support seen at 23,600 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTY AUTO: The overall trend suggests a positive sentiment in the sector. A move above 9,500-mark may spark a strong upside towards 11,000 levels as per the weekly chart. The index is managing to sustain above the 200-weekly moving average (WMA), exhibiting a bullish trend. A breakout abov this level may form an "Inverse Head and Shoulder" pattern on the weekly chart. That said, the trend may reverse only if the index slips below the support of 8,250 levels. The daily chart indicates a support of 50-DMA currently placed at 8,623 for the immediate trend. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTY FMCG: After crossing the resistance of 33,000-mark, the index is attempting to cross 34,500 levels. As the trend looks promising, a move above 34,500 may see a rally toward 35,500 mark. While the current momentum has a support of 33,000 on a closing basis, it will shift base to 33,700 once the index manages to conquer 34,500 mark. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART

NIFTY PHARM: With a "Golden Cross" pattern bring formed on the weekly chart, the index is set to climb higher levels of 13,200 to 13,500 levels. The medium-term support comes at 10,800 and every up move above 12,500 may see the index heading toward 14,000 levels. The overall trend is highly bullish with underneath strength staying firm. The index is gradually rising with the support of 100-DMA, currently placed at 11,800 levels.  CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART