Testing times for rain-deficient areas

MONSOON WATCH

The overall hydrological situation in the country is deemed very good thanks to normal seasonal rainfall.

But with predictions that the monsoon will enter another weak phase from August 21, rainfall is likely to decrease in most parts of the country, barring the North-East which is likely to witness heavy spells over the next few days.

Though the overall agricultural situation is more or less satisfactory, the fate of unirrigated crops would hinge largely on how long the forthcoming lull lasts.

Agricultural experts are particularly concerned about Bihar and Jharkhand, which almost entirely rely on rainfall and have remained rain-deficient since the beginning of the monsoon season.

The other rain-deficient areas are the whole of North-East and Tamil Nadu, but they are not a cause for immidiate concern. As crop sowing in these regions will continue despite deficient rainfall.

According to National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) director Akhilesh Gupta, the monsoon has weakened considerably and its axis has shifted towards foothills of the Himalayas.

Consequently, the South-West monsoon will enter another weak phase beginning August 21, leading to subdued rainfall over most part of the country. However, rainfall will get a boost in the north-eastern states and sub-Himalayan West Bengal.

"There are no signs of monsoon revival at least till August 25," said Gupta. The cumulative monsoon rainfall since the beginning of the season on June 1 has been about 2 per cent above normal up to the week ending August 10. But the reduction in the rainfall in the past week has more or less eroded the surplus.

So far, the overall rainfall is either normal or above normal in all but six of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions of the country.

The rainfall deficiency is estimated at 23 per cent in Bihar, 41 per cent in Jharkhand and 23 per cent in Tamil Nadu. Some of the areas in Bihar and Jharkhand have reported deficiency of over 80 per cent.

The reports received from the states indicate that kharif sowing is almost over in most areas barring areas either starved of rains or ravaged by floods.

Though the final numbers on the acreage sown with different crops is yet to come, the trend so far points to a reduced acreage under paddy, coarse cereals and oilseeds but larger planting of sugarcane, cotton and pulses. The condition of the standing crops is reported to be satisfactory.

However, some pest attack has been noticed in isolated pockets but the incidence is not yet alarming or beyond control.

The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has advised the farmers in the rain-deficient North-Eastern states to go in for early maturing varieties of paddy like Anjali, Kalinga III, Heera, Ashoka 108, Ashoka 109, IR 64 and IR 36.

The seeds of these varieties are available either at the Cuttack-based Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI) or the Ranchi Agricultural University. It has also suggested them to increase the height of bandhs around the fields to 25 to 30 cms to conserve rain water for the paddy crop.

For the higher lands, the ICAR has suggested sowing of pigeonpea (BR 183, BR 165 and UPAS 120 varieties) or direct seeding of finger millet (A 404 or PR 202 varieties).

The farmers can also sow groundnut (AK-12-24 variety) or soyabean. Inter-cropping of finger millet and blackgram or maize and pigeonpea is advised to reduce the risk of total crop failure.

The ICAR has also cautioned farmers about possible outbreak of diseases among the livestock, especially in the areas affected by floods and excessive rains. They have been advised to regularly check the animals for symptoms of diseases like food-and-mouth or presence of parasites.

Most of the dams are more than half-full. Only one reservoir"" Somasila in Andhra Pradesh""has reported nil live storage. The total storage in the 76 major reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission was estimated at 88.40 billion cubic metres (BCM) on August 12.

This represented 66 per cent of their total live storage capacity. The corresponding position last year was 55.7 BCM (42 per cent of storage capacity). The average storage in past 10 years around that date has been 61.56 BCM, representing 46 per cent of the total storage capacity.

As such, this year's water storage is nearly 59 per cent higher than last year's corresponding level and 44 per cent above the past 10-year average.