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The volume imperative

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Vijay L Bhambwani Mumbai
Last Updated : Feb 25 2013 | 11:10 PM IST
The markets opened on a positive note and ended the day with gains as the indices gained back all that they lost yesterday.
 
Traded volumes were stagnant compared with the previous session and the 10-day average.
 
The market breadth was positive as the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) combined figures were 1565 : 1056 and the capitalisation of the breadth was also positive as the figures on a BSE-NSE combined basis were Rs 3901 crore: Rs 701 crore.
 
Derivatives data available for Monday's session show a marginal rise in open interest as outstanding futures positions have over risen ahead of the expiry.
 
The indices have closed higher but are still to surpass the critical threshold levels that I have advocated at 1607 and 5076 on the Nifty and the Sensex, respectively.
 
Unless these levels are overcome with high volumes, positive market breadth and increase in open interest, the upmove is likely to be difficult to achieve.
 
On the lower side, expect the indices to get support at the 1582 and the 5034 levels on an intra-day basis. Banking and oil stocks are likely to be under performers in the near term.
 
Traded volumes must pick up if the markets are to see a sustainable upmove.
 
The outlook for the markets on Wednesday is that consolidation as the impeding expiry of August series will be the trend determinator in the near term.
 
There is unlikely to be any major movement in either direction as the squaring up of positions is likely to cushion directional mobility.
 
I continued to advocate bearishness on select PSU stocks such as Bank of Baroda in the near term as advocated yesterday.
 
Trades should be initiated on low volumes as the markets are still unstable.

Vijay L Bhambwani
(CEO - BSPLindia.com)

The author is a Mumbai based investment consultant and invites feedback at vijay@BSPLindia.com or (022) 23400345 / 23438482.
 
SEBI disclosure: the analyst has no exposure to the scrips mentioned above.

 
 

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First Published: Aug 25 2004 | 12:00 AM IST

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