MORGAN STANLEY REPORT ON IMPLICATIONS OF POLLS
Ridham Desai, Sheela Rathi, Utkarsh Khandelwal, Amruta Pabalkar
UP most important among five polling states, given its sheer size. It is hard to tell which party may benefit. Tight fights seem to be the order of the day given how small vote swings seem to be affecting seat count
POSSIBLE SCENARIO
Hung assembly not ruled out: UP may get President's rule if neither of the two regional parties swing a majority (203 seats) or a significant seat count (150 seats). Both the Congress and Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) have announced they would not support another party to form a govt.
Low possibility of mid-term polls: Neither the Samajwadi Party (SP) nor the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is likely to oppose the Congress at the centre of key issues. Indeed, a mid-term poll is more likely if the Congress does exceptionally well by winning more than 100 seats (somewhat unlikely).
Implications for the Centre: If the Congress performs well by winning more than 60 seats, it may pursue some controversial reforms. We remain focused on stock-picking as a strategy.
EDELWEISS SECURITIES REPORT ON IMPACT OF POLLS Nischal Maheshwari, Kapil Gupta, Dipojjal Saha, Toshi Jain
The highlight of the polling, so far, has been the record voter turnout, which history suggests, either favours the incumbent (if the prevailing perception is of good governance e.g., Bihar) or else it is a vote for change
POSSIBLE SCENARIO
Congress improves tally, but lags SP: Being the expected outcome it might lead to a SP–Congress alliance forming the govt. SP, in turn, will support UPA at the Centre, thereby reducing Congress’ dependence on TMC. This may augur well for the reform process.
Congress emerges strong: The Congress benefits the most from anti–incumbency and high turnout and emerges as the single–largest or at least as strong as SP. Both the parties will contend for Chief Minister’s position. This will result into a phase of heightened political uncertainty, quashing all hopes for reforms and markets will not take it favourably.
CLSA REPORT ON IMPLICATIONS OF POLLS
Aniruddha Dutta
The only truth is that it is near impossible to predict the results in four-cornered contests, where the division of the electorate along caste, sub caste and sub-sub-caste lines are very strong
POSSIBLE SCENARIO
Hung assembly is a foregone conclusion: It was the same in 2007. Consensus is SP will be the single largest party and Congress will support it. BSP could once again emerge as the single largest party and BJP could be the third largest, upsetting many calculations and disappointing the markets.
Can 2012 surprise? It is quite possible that BSP emerges as the single largest party and BJP the third.
The chances of a surprise and difficulty in predicting the results come from: high voter turnout (about 15 percentage points higher than in 2007), a younger electorate, and higher percentage of voting by women. There is no major wave or issue in this election unlike in 2007, when poor law and order was the major issue. There is no major anti-incumbency mood. For Congress the most preferred option likely would be President’s Rule.