The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has pegged India's sugar production at 23.6 million tonnes in the ensuing 2010-11 sugar year, marking an increase of over 26 per cent from last year.
India, the world's second biggest producer but largest consumer of sugar, had produced 19 million tonnes of sweetener in 2009-10, it said in its latest report.
Interestingly, the USDA's projection is close to the government's estimate of 24 million tonnes. But Food and Agriculture Minister had said recently that he would not be surprised if the production goes up to 25 million tonnes this year.
Even the sugar industry is estimating total output of sweetener at 25-25.5 million tonnes in the 2010-11 sugar year. The sugar year runs from October to September.
The USDA and the government's estimate of sugar output in 2010-11 crop year is, however, higher than the domestic demand of 23 million tonnes.
According to USDA projection, India's leading sugar producing state Maharashtra is expected to produce a record 9.5 million tonnes of sugar this year, against 7 million tonnes last year.
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Sugar production in Uttar Pradesh, the country's second biggest sugar producing state, may rise to 6.2 million tonnes from 5.18 million tonnes in the review period.
Barring Karnataka, sugar output is seen to rise in almost all sugar producing states like Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana, Punjab, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and others.
The sugar output in Karnataka is likely to decline marginally to 2.3 million tonnes this year from 2.53 million tonnes last year.
The US body said that sugar output in Tamil Nadu may jump sharply to 2.1 million tonnes in the 2010-11 crop year from 1.25 million tonnes last year. The output in Gujarat is pegged at 1.3 million tonnes against 1.19 million tonnes last year.
It further said that India's sugar import may lower at one million tonnes on expected improved domestic supplies and lower domestic prices.