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F&O expiry, GST Bill to dictate D-Street trends

After 3 straight weeks of downfall, domestic markets rose over 1% for the week ended November 20, 2015

F&O expiry, GST Bill to dictate D-Street trends
Purva Chitnis Mumbai
Last Updated : Nov 21 2015 | 11:22 PM IST
Snapping a three-week downtrend, Indian equities rebounded to gain over one per cent tracking global peers, after the minutes of the US Federal Reserve raised prospects of a rate hike in December, but hinted at a modest increase going forward. Further, gains in shares of gas distribution companies and consumer discretionary stocks also added to the momentum, later during the week.

For the week ended November 20, the BSE Sensex gained 257.96 points, or 1.01 per cent, to end at 25,868.49, while the National Stock Exchange's Nifty50 gained 94.30 points, or 1.21 per cent, to settle at 7,856.55.

The broader markets outperformed the benchmark indices. BSE Midcap index rose 204.93 points, or1.92 per cent, to settle at 10,858.41 and BSE Smallcap index increased 242.41 points, or 2.18 per cent, to end at 11,367.31.

“We saw extreme volatility after Bihar elections outcome. However, in the past few days, markets have witnessed a decent bounce. This is a good sign for short-term bottoming out process on the index, said Kunal Bothra, head-advisory, LKP Securities. Speaking about levels, he said, "7,700-spot, more or less, would now be a good support zone for Nifty for the next few weeks. The disappointment in earnings was one of the other major reasons for such underperformance by Indian markets."

Bothra said, "The next bigger event is the Winter Session of Parliament and then the crucial December Fed policy. If both the events don't shock the markets, then we could very well start a steady uptrend. Sectorally, the performance of information technology (IT), pharmaceuticals and private banks would be the key, going forward."

Key events

Around the world, geopolitical tensions in France grabbed the eyeballs. Financial markets reacted to Paris attacks carried out by ISIS militants and the subsequent action by the French government during the first half of the week.

In the latter half of the week, the US Federal Reserve, which released its meeting minutes on Wednesday, depicted confidence in the world's largest economy, as it signalled a possible rate hike in December. Also, if the Fed raises the rate in December, it would proceed slowly with the further tightening of its monetary policy, the minutes said. This sentiment uplifted the world stock markets.

Back on the home turf, the finance ministry on Thursday said the 7th Pay Commission has proposed a 23.55 per cent pay hike to 4.8million employees and 5.5 million pensioners of the central government. If the recommendations are accepted, the impact on the Budget would be of Rs 1.02 lakh crore in FY17.

On economic front, the wholesale price index (WPI) for October showed a contraction for a 12th straight month. The figure was -3.81 per cent, against -4.54 per cent in the previous month.

Stock trends

Sector-wise, BSE Oil&Gas index rose 4.28 per cent, followed by BSE FMCG index, up by 2.8 per cent. The impact of 7th Pay Commission recommendations lifted the BSE consumer durables and auto sectors that gained over two per cent each for the week. Down trend was seen in BSE IT and realty indices, which dropped 1.1 per cent and 1.46 per cent, respectively.

Individually, Gail (India) zoomed 23.8 per cent on the news Petronet LNG is in talks with RasGas, a Qatar-based company to alter the pricing mechanism of natural gas. Gail will be a beneficiary in this, as it would help reduce its cost of production, thus boosting its earnings.

Another state-run company, Coal India, witnessed action during the week. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved a divestment of 10 per cent capital in the company. The stock dropped 1.2 per cent.

Dr Reddy's Lab was also a major talking point during the week. An American law firm Lundin Law filed a lawsuit against the drug manufacturer, alleging the violation of federal securities law. However, the pharma company issued a clarification, saying it has always adhered to the law. The stock dipped one per cent over the week.

Week ahead

Next week will be a truncated one, as markets will remain closed on Wednesday on account of Guru Nanak Jayanti. Since there is no domestic economic data point for the next week, global events will continue to dictate trends. However, the F&O expiry for November will keep players edgy.

Also, investors would closely watch proceedings of Parliament's Winter Session, which begins on November 26, with the hope of seeing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill sail through.

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First Published: Nov 21 2015 | 11:15 PM IST

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