Government's effort to keep the food inflation under check could get a jolt as production of pulses and oilseeds -- the two food supplements significant quantity of which is imported every year -- is projected to drop by 5.2 per cent and 6 per cent respectively this year.
However, there is no such worries from foodgrains as production for 2011-2012 crop marketing year that started in July is estimated to reach an all-time high of 250.42 million tonnes, largely on the back of record wheat and rice output, according to the second advanced estimate of crop production for 2011-2012.
The estimates released today showed that production of wheat this year is expected to be around 88.31 million tonnes, around 1.6 per cent more than last year. Output of rice is expected to be around 103 million tonnes, up a staggering 7 per cent from last year.
Food articles in India continued to witness deflation for the fourth week in a row for the seven-day period ended January 14. The rate of price fall acclerated to 1.03 per cent for the week compared to 0.42 per cent in the previous mainly due to drop in prices of fruits and vegetables.
Meanwhile, the data showed that production of cotton is projected at a record 34.09 million bales (1 bale=170 kg), up 3.3 per cent from last year. Similarly, production of sugarcane this year is expected to be around 1.6 per cent more than last year at 347.87 million tonnes.
The big worry though will come from pulses and oilseeds. Officials said production of both these crops suffered because of uneven rains in kharif season and thereafter low pre-winter rains in northern parts of the country.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) between October to December the country received almost 50 per cent less rainfall.
“The near absence of winter rains badly impacted sowing of rabi pulses and also mustard which is primarily grown in this season,” a senior official said.
He said this year once again the country will have to rely on imports to augment supplies. In 2010-2011, India’s pulses imports had come down to around 1.5 million tonnes from an average of 2.5-3 million tonnes as domestic production reached an all-time high 18 million tonnes.
Almost half of India’s annual pulses import comprises of yellow pea while the other pulses like tur, urad, moong and chana make up for another 50 per cent.
The pulses are imported from Canada, Myanmar, Australia and some African countries.
A similar situation is also expected in oilseeds, where a drop in production largely because of fall in mustard output could further push up imports.
“Mustard is crucial for total edible oil availability in the country as it is one of highest oil-bearing crop,” a senior industry official said.
The overall fall in production of pulses and oilseeds also raises a big question mark over government’s effort to allocate an additional Rs 80 crore to 12 major pulses growing states to raise their rabi output.
The allocation was cleared after kharif pulses production dropped by around 10 per cent also because of uneven rains.