Wheat output seen 1 mt less than estimated 74.05 mt

Actual wheat production this year may be around a million tonne lower of the previous official estimate of 74.05 million tonne. This is largely due to the unexpected outbreak of diseases prior to ripening of the crop and reduction in wheat acreage this season.

The present inclement weather in the main north-western wheat belt may adversely affect the grain quality of the harvested produce but the standing crop would escape undamaged.

According to Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) director S Nagarajan, the total wheat output may be only around 73 million tonne this season against the earlier estimate of around 74-75 million tonne.

The previous estimate was based on the excellent shape of the crop during the major part of the growing season.

"However, the outbreak of Black Rust disease on the predominantly grown PBW-343 variety in Punjab when the crop was about to mature dashed the hopes of a bumper harvest.

Nearly 30 to 40 per cent of the crop was affected resulting in around to five per cent lower yield, depending on the extent of infestation", Nagarajan told Business Standard.

Though PBW-343 variety was being grown for nearly 10 years, it was for the first time that this rust disease had struck with such a force.

The Durum wheat (hard wheat suited specifically for making pasta products) also fell prey to a relatively uncommon disease called Head Scab. Though this disease was widely prevalent in North America, it had seldom been a major problem in India.

"But low temperature and high humidity due to rains towards the fag end of the crop created ideal conditions for this disease to affect the durum wheat," Nagarajan said. The damage was reported from Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur and part of Ropar districts of Punjab.

Asked about the effect of the present short spells of rain in the past few days in the north-western region, Nagarajan said its impact would be limited only to the grain quality of the harvested grains and will not affect the crop that hasn't been harvested yet.

The bulk of the crop had already been harvested and marketed. But the harvested grains lying in the fields would suffer in terms of quality.

Their flour recovery could drop below 65 per cent. Besides, the wheat flour made from the rain-damaged grains would be relatively more sticky and poor in quality.

Nagarajan blamed the relatively warmer winter between November and January for the lower yield. Besides, the area under wheat cultivation had shrunk this year, especially in Bihar, due to diversion of land to boro paddy and maize. Though the wheat harvest in Madhya Pradesh had been good but it would not make up for the shortfall elsewhere, he felt.

Yet another factor that had contributed to lower harvest weight was the low moisture level of the grains reaped in the early part of the harvest season, before the current spell of sporadic rains began. Most of those stocks had a grain moisture content of only around nine per cent, against normal 12 to 13 per cent.

He said near stagnation in wheat output in past several years was a matter of concern. "The scientists and policy planners need to look into the causes and devise remedial measures for it, Nagarajan said.