Undeterred by the slow start to wheat sowing this rabi season, the government is confident that total acreage under the staple crop will touch last year’s record 28.5 million hectares, as the pace of plantings will accelerate from this week.
“I’m sure we will be able to cover 28.5 million hectares... There is time till late December to complete wheat sowing,” Singh said.
Farm ministry data shows wheat acreage was lagging about 30 per cent from a year ago at 7.08 million hectares until last week. Sowing has been lacklustre despite good monsoon rain that had made the government confident of India reaping a record 82 million tonnes harvest this year. Singh said while a clearer picture on output would emerge only after sowing was complete, the current weather conditions bode well for the crop.
Wheat plantings so far in the current season that started October are lower in all states, barring Punjab. Singh said in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where total wheat acreage is down 86 per cent and 72 per cent, respectively, the decline could be due to delayed reporting with state officials busy with local and state assembly polls.
Another reason for the lag is the delayed harvest of sugarcane and paddy, he said.
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Sugarcane harvest has been delayed in Uttar Pradesh this year by nearly a month due to a tussle between farmers and sugar mills over cane prices.
Paddy harvest has been delayed in most of north India, as farmers had opted for basmati and other late-sown rice varieties in the kharif season due to erratic rains at the start of the Jun-Sep monsoon season.
Basmati and other late-sown rice types can be harvested only after mid-November, while the early varieties are ready for harvest around mid-October.
Farmers in northern India—the wheat bowl of the country—usually adopt cane-wheat or rice-wheat cropping cycles.
Singh said with harvest of paddy and cane now underway, wheat sowing should pick up from this week.
The delay in wheat sowing, however, can cost the country dear. If sown after end November, wheat gets a smaller gestation period and becomes prone to heat stress during Mar-Apr. In 2004-05 and 2009-10, late-sown wheat had shrivelled due to high temperatures in Mar-Apr, leading to a 3-4 million tonnes fall in output.
Singh did not hazard any guess on wheat output prospects. “We will have a fairer idea on production by the first week of December,” he said.
The commissioner said he expects wheat plantings to increase sharply this week as the temperature has now become favourable.
“Farmers usually start wheat sowing when the maximum temperature drops to around 24-25 degrees Celsius. It was very hot early this month. Temperature has dropped only now. It is good for sowing... I’m sure we will see a sharp rise in wheat acreage from this week,” he said.
Singh said sowing of other rabi crops too should pick up now. The government, which had pegged kharif food grain output at 114.6 million tonnes, expects a good rabi crop and is hoping that total food grain production this year would top the 2008-09 (July-June) record of 234.5 million tonnes.
Singh said rabi crop prospects were bright, as the government has ensured adequate supply of seeds and fertilisers and the weather was conducive.
“The rabi situation should be very good, looking at the water reservoir levels, winter rains and the ongoing weather.”
He said heavy rains that had lashed Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra early this month would raise the reservoir and soil moisture levels, and boost the output of rabi crops.
Rain has, however, inflicted damage to kharif maize, cotton and paddy crops that were ready for harvest in the three states. Singh said the damage to kharif crops in the three states is limited and would not dent the overall production of these crops. He said India’s total cotton output in the current crop year that commenced July, in fact could be higher than the government’s initial estimate of 32.5 million bales, despite the damage to the Andhra Pradesh crop.