Wkly Tech View: More downside likely

The markets went into a tailspin last week mainly on account of heavy selling in heavyweights such as Reliance, Bharti Airtel, ONGC, Infosys, ICICI Bank, NTPC and DLF.

The Sensex, which began the week on a positive note at 20,918, managed to touch a high of 20,986. A downward bias, thereafter, saw the index tumble to a low of 18,930 - an intra-week loss of 2055 points. The Sensex ended the week with a hefty loss of 8.7 per cent (1,814 points) at 19,014.

The intensity of the fall was so severe that the index broke quite a few support levels last week. The index dropped below its monthly S3 (support 3) level of 19,290 and also broke the quarterly S1 level of 19,005 in intra-day deals.

The markets are likely to see more downside in the coming week. The Sensex could move in a broad range of 18,300 (which is the quarterly S3 level) and 20,300 this week. On its way up, the index is likely to encounter some resistance around the 19,700 level.

The Nifty swung in a wide range of 583 points - from a high of 6,260, the index slumped to a low of 5,677, and finally ended with a loss of 8 per cent (495 points) at 5,705.

Some indicators point to a pull back in the short-term. The 9-day RSI (relative strength index) is in slightly oversold zone at 22 per cent (an RSI of less than 30 per cent is said to be oversold).

Meanwhile, the 14-day slow stochastic has also dropped to a low of 21 per cent.

The Nifty is below its short-term (20-days) moving average, which is at 6,096 and the 50-day moving average, which is at 5,927. The index may move in a broad range of 5,500-6,050 this week.