Global food commodity markets are likely to remain stable in the coming year, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday, even as prices rose for the fourth straight month.
Solid output prospects and abundant stocks should keep prices and supplies stable, while lower prices than those seen last year are set to reduce the world's food import bill, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.
FAO's world food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, rose 2.1 per cent in May to average 155.8 points.
The biggest rises were in sugar, which rose because production prospects fell in India, and meat which rose because of high demand from Asia for pig meat from the European Union.
FAO forecast world cereals output in 2016-17 would be 2.543 billion tonnes, which would be 0.6 per cent higher than last year's level and only 0.7 per cent below 2014's record high.
January's seven-year low followed four consecutive annual declines, and food prices on international markets in May were still seven per cent lower than a year ago.
FAO said this would mean the world's food import bill is due to fall to $986 billion this year, below $1 trillion for the first time since 2009.
Receding palm oil prices after three months of sharp gains helped bring the vegetable oils index down 1.8 per cent.
Global trade in cereals is predicted to decline by 1.9 per cent to 369 million tonnes this year, which is likely to intensify competition for market share between major exporters, keeping prices in check.
Dairy prices rose 0.4 per cent in May partly due to continued demand for milk powder and butter, but are still down 24 per cent on last year and expected to stay weak.
BURGEONING RESERVES
FAO's June 2016 food outlook
WHEAT
Global wheat supplies are forecast to remain ample in the 2016-17 marketing season. Although below the 2015 record, global production in 2016 is set to outstrip utilisation for the fourth consecutive season, boosting world stocks to a 15-year high
RICE
After two seasons of stagnation or decline, global production is set to recover in 2016. In May, international prices rallied, on concerns about tightening supplies in major exporting countries.
OIL CROP
Global production prospects for 2015-16 have deteriorated due to El Niño-related losses. With early projections for 2016-17 barely suggesting a recovery in output, there is scope for international prices of oilseed, oils and meals to strengthen
MEAT
Overall world meat production is predicted to stagnate at about 321 million tonnes in 2016. Poultry is forecast to register some growth, followed by bovine and ovine meat
DAIRY
International dairy product prices remained depressed during the first five months of 2016. Milk production continues to increase steadily in many countries, although lower prices are expected to dampen growth in world output in 2016
FOOD IMPORT BILL
At $986 billion, the value of food imports in 2016 is forecast to decline by 9% from last year, marking the first time it will dip below the $1-trillion mark since 2009. At the product level, almost all commodity import bills are set to fall this year.
Solid output prospects and abundant stocks should keep prices and supplies stable, while lower prices than those seen last year are set to reduce the world's food import bill, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.
FAO's world food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, rose 2.1 per cent in May to average 155.8 points.
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Rising prices for most main food commodities apart from vegetable oils resulted in the index's fourth consecutive monthly rise after it hit a near seven-year low in January.
The biggest rises were in sugar, which rose because production prospects fell in India, and meat which rose because of high demand from Asia for pig meat from the European Union.
FAO forecast world cereals output in 2016-17 would be 2.543 billion tonnes, which would be 0.6 per cent higher than last year's level and only 0.7 per cent below 2014's record high.
January's seven-year low followed four consecutive annual declines, and food prices on international markets in May were still seven per cent lower than a year ago.
FAO said this would mean the world's food import bill is due to fall to $986 billion this year, below $1 trillion for the first time since 2009.
Receding palm oil prices after three months of sharp gains helped bring the vegetable oils index down 1.8 per cent.
Global trade in cereals is predicted to decline by 1.9 per cent to 369 million tonnes this year, which is likely to intensify competition for market share between major exporters, keeping prices in check.
Dairy prices rose 0.4 per cent in May partly due to continued demand for milk powder and butter, but are still down 24 per cent on last year and expected to stay weak.
BURGEONING RESERVES
FAO's June 2016 food outlook
WHEAT
Global wheat supplies are forecast to remain ample in the 2016-17 marketing season. Although below the 2015 record, global production in 2016 is set to outstrip utilisation for the fourth consecutive season, boosting world stocks to a 15-year high
RICE
After two seasons of stagnation or decline, global production is set to recover in 2016. In May, international prices rallied, on concerns about tightening supplies in major exporting countries.
OIL CROP
Global production prospects for 2015-16 have deteriorated due to El Niño-related losses. With early projections for 2016-17 barely suggesting a recovery in output, there is scope for international prices of oilseed, oils and meals to strengthen
MEAT
Overall world meat production is predicted to stagnate at about 321 million tonnes in 2016. Poultry is forecast to register some growth, followed by bovine and ovine meat
DAIRY
International dairy product prices remained depressed during the first five months of 2016. Milk production continues to increase steadily in many countries, although lower prices are expected to dampen growth in world output in 2016
FOOD IMPORT BILL
At $986 billion, the value of food imports in 2016 is forecast to decline by 9% from last year, marking the first time it will dip below the $1-trillion mark since 2009. At the product level, almost all commodity import bills are set to fall this year.