The 'visit' isn't really about H1 B visas or about spouses of workers on H1 B visas who cannot work, it isn't even about the rock star reception that Prime Minister Modi is expected to get from the Indian community waiting to taste "sweet revenge" for the denial of visa to Narendra Modi in 2005.
The visit by India's new Prime Minister is about resetting ties and forging new bonds.
Ashley Tellis, the guru of India-US ties in this millennium has prudent words of advice for the Prime Minister.
He says, "First, Modi must build personal relationships with key interlocutors. Although it is true that states ultimately act in accordance with their national interests, their actions at the practical level are coloured deeply by the quality of the private ties enjoyed by their leaders. There are few countries that have witnessed this reality in recent years more vividly than India."
Ashley Tellis, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace was intimately involved in negotiating the civil nuclear agreement between India and the US. Having served on the U.S. National Security Council staff, and served as Senior Advisor at the US embassy in New Delhi, Tellis has seen first hand how warm personal vibes take relationships forward. The Strobe-Talbot Jaswant Singh meetings, George Bush and Dr. Manmohan Singh and then later President Obama and Dr Singh, all brilliant relationships that furthered bilateral relations.
Tellis advises, "The moral of the story is clear: the quality of the personal relations between leaders makes a difference to the way in which they conduct foreign policy. And, especially among friendly nations, such as the United States and India, relationships make a huge difference to whether the outcomes of summits are prosaic or momentous. Modi's first order of business in the United States, then, consists of building a strong connection with Obama, of the kind the prime minister enjoys with his Japanese counterpart, Shinzo Abe."
There are several reasons why this might not happen right away. The most important reason is that America is horribly preoccupied. The crisis with Islamic terrorism has engulfed President Obama's administration. The pacifist President now seems increasingly pulled into another war. Barely have the troops begun returning from Afghanistan that a new war theatre has emerged with the ISIL and its brutal assault in the Middle East and threat to the western world. There are recruitment videos and beheading videos popping up every other day.
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The U.S. is jittery. Nervous almost. Just today in a meeting with journalists at the United Nations, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said he had just learned of the plot by foreign fighters of the Islamic State group in Iraq to attack subway systems in the U.S. and Paris. He said it had not been thwarted and that the United States had been alerted. "Today, while I'm here I'm receiving accurate reports from Baghdad that there were arrests of a few elements and there were networks from inside Iraq to have attacks ... on metros of Paris and U.S.," al-Abadi said (AP). "They are not Iraqis. Some of them are French, some of them are Americans. But they are in Iraq," the Iraqi PM is reported to have said. But U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies seemed to have been caught off guard by the remark, initially telling reporters they'd investigate the news but later saying that the U.S. intelligence community had no evidence of a current threat.
The Indian Prime Minister comes to the U.S. to attempt to detangle the relationship while the American side is pre-occupied and exhausted.
Tellis advises, "Whatever the current challenges bedeviling the United States and India, they will be greatly mitigated if Modi capitalizes on his intimate meetings to develop strong personal ties with Obama. The president still has over two years in office, which as both leaders know is an eternity in politics."
The President is almost done and the Prime Minister is just about beginning. Propitious time to write legacies for both Modi and Obama.
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