As expected, the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif has captured power in the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly elections held in the region under Army supervision.
Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly (GBLA) was created through a Presidential order in 2009. It has a total 33 members, 24 members elected directly and six women and three technocrats elected indirectly through party list proportional representation system.
Out of the 24 directly elected seats results have been declared in 23. The result of GBLA-17 will be declared after completion of enquiry as polling in three booths had been suspended following a clash between Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F)-(JUI-F) and PML-N.
The Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) has secured 14 seats out of 23. Pakistan People's Party (PPP) received a big jolt as it won only one seat. While Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and JUI-F won one seat each, Majlis-i-Wahadat-i-Muslimeen (MWM) - a predominantly Shia political party and Islami Tehreek Party (Sunni Party) secured two seats each. Two independents were also elected - one of them joined the PML-N thus raising its tally to 15.
Chief Minister Syed Mehdi Shah and his team of ministers- Ali Madad Shair, Haji Gulbar, Muhammad Naseer, Raja Azam Khan, and Eng. Ismail- as also former deputy speaker, Jamil Ahmed, lost their seats.
In all, 271 candidates from 14 political parties and independents contested the elections. While PML-N had put up candidates in all the 24 constituencies, PPP and PTI contested in 22 and 21 seats respectively. Other Parties who had put up candidates in the fray were- MWM (15), All Pakistan Muslim League (13), JUI-F (10), Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) (7), Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) (6) and Tehreek-i-Islami (12).
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In addition, candidates from Mutttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Sunni Ittehad Council, Aam Admi Party and Gilgit Baltistan Qaumi Movement also contested the polls to elect 24 legislators which include three members from District Gilgit, three from District Hunza Nagar, six from Skardu, two from Astor, four from Diamer, three from Ghizer and three from Ganche.
The voter turn-out was 60 percent. The revised NADRA voters' list reduced the number of registered voters from 750,000 in the 2009 Gilgit Baltistan Assembly Elections to 615,000 this time. Women in Diamer Darel valley cast their ballots but in the adjacent Tangir valley, they abstained "voluntarily". Except for minor clashes over allegations of rigging, the elections were peaceful.
The first election to the GBLA was held in November 2009 in which the PPP bagged 14 seats. In addition, it also got four of the women seats and all the three reserved for technocrats. The PML-N which has won 15 seats this time was able to secure only two seats in 2009 elections. However, it was able to increase its tally to four after winning two seats in the by-elections in 2013.
It has been tradition that whosoever holds power in Islamabad wins the elections in the so called Azad Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan. The analysis of the results shows that the PML-N adopted a well-planned strategy wherein it highlighted in its campaign allegations of corruption and misrule by the local PPP government headed by Syed Mehdi Shah during the last five years. It also promised to make Gilgit more autonomous unit and also bring mega projects from centre.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited Gilgit on April 14 just six days ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to inaugurate the USD 46 billion China Pakistan Economic Order (CPEC). During his stay in Gilgit-Baltistan, Sharif advertised the project and told the local people that this project will change their fate. He also announced Rs 47 billion developmental projects for the region which included construction of two dams, road between Thakot and Raikot on Karakoram Highway, a specialized hospital, a university in Baltistan and establishment of three new districts He also presided over the launch of the construction of Gilgit-Skardu road and distributed laptops amongst university students.
The PPP made PML-N's task easy in many ways. Besides the anti-incumbency factor, internal party feuds and poor performance in the 2013 national elections made the PPP face defeat. For example, the then prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani pledged to develop Gilgit and Skardu airports for landing of Boeing aircrafts and create more jobs but these promises remained on paper.
Islamabad-based expert on PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan Ershad Mahmud has put the blame on PPP local leadership which he says never cared for the party. Elaborating, he says that the former Chief Minister Mehdi Shah spent most of his time in the luxurious Gilgit-Baltistan House in Islamabad on the tax payers' money. It has also been alleged that his government had made huge amounts of illegal money by selling several hundred jobs. The allegations were confirmed by the fact finding mission report of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan.
While the PML (Q) did not put up any candidate, MQM and All Pakistan Muslim League could not win a single seat. The JeI which also could not win any seat is the only party which has complained of rigging.
JUI (F) which won two seats in 2009 elections could win only one this time round. The reason could be that party supremo Maulana Fazlur Rehman did not visit the region to campaign for his party candidates.
PTI chief Imran Khan during his visit to the region twice addressed a number of rallies wherein he slammed the Nawaz Sharif government "accusing it of poll rigging through allocating huge funds for development of the area and appointment of a federal minister as a stop-gap Gilgit-Baltistan Governor (Birjees Tahir)". He also vowed to grant more regional autonomy to Gilgit Baltistan which, he said, had been neglected by the PPP government. But his magic did not work.
It has been observed that people generally do not vote for nationalist parties. However, Nawaz Khan Naji of Balawaristan National Front managed to win a seat from GBLA-19(Ghizer-1) constituency. However, Baba Jan of left oriented Awami Workers Party could not win. Baba Jan is presently in jail for instigating a mob to resort to violence
in the Hunza Valley.
The major task before Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is the selection of legislators for women and technocrats from the reserved seats and choose the chief minister. He is looking for a strong personality who can control the corruption and oversee the various developmental projects, particularly the CPEC and the USD 12.6 million Diamer-Bhasha Dam.
For the post of chief minister, all eyes are on the regional President of PML-N, Hafiz ur Rehman. Another name going round is Mir Ghazanfir Ali Khan who is quite articulate. But he may not be picked up as during Musharraf's government, he had joined the PML(Q) and was made deputy chief executive.
Meanwhile, the chief coordinator of APML, Ahmad Raza Kasuri has filed a petition in the Islamabad High Court, seeking a constitutional amendment for turning Gilgit-Baltistan into the fifth province of Pakistan. The petition claimed that in August 2009, the PPP government instead of amending the Constitution issued a presidential order titled 'The Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance Order, 2009, which granted to self-rule to people of GB. However, the area has not been given the status of the fifth province, though it has been given a legislative assembly, a chief minister and a governor.
Historically, Gilgit-Baltistan was not merged into Pakistan proper due to concern this might undermine the Pakistan's claim on Kashmir. It was also not merged into PoK which could also complicate settlement on the area.
An editorial in the Dawn said that if Gilgit-Baltistan has been made a full-fledged province within the constitutional framework of Pakistan, India could perhaps argue that the state has been carved out of the disputed area adding, "Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, is also a legitimate entity and that it is a settled issue."
Surinder Kumar Sharma is associated with the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis. (ANI)
(The views expressed in this article are of Mr S. K. Sharma)
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