Global oil demand could rise through 2100 under a variety of scenarios such as for economic growth, population, efficiency gains and fuel substitution, a new study has predicted.
The new research said that fears of depleting the Earth's supply of oil is unwarranted, concluding that the demand for oil, as opposed to the supply, will reach its own peak and then decline.
'Peak oil' prognosticators have painted pictures of everything from a calm development of alternatives to calamitous shortages, panic and even social collapse as the world reaches its peak of oil production - and then supplies fall.
But according to the study by researchers at Stanford University and the University of California-Santa Cruz, those scenarios assume that an increasingly wealthy world will use all of the oil pumped out of the ground.
Instead, the historical connection between economic growth and oil use is breaking down - and will continue to do so - because of limits on consumption by the wealthy, better fuel efficiency, lower priced alternative fuels and the world's rapidly urbanizing population.
"There is an overabundance of concern about oil depletion and not enough attention focused on the substitutes for conventional oil and other possibilities for reducing our dependence on oil," study co-author Adam Brandt, assistant professor of energy resources engineering at Stanford's School of Earth Sciences, said.
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The study, published in Environmental Science and Technology, describes a variety of mechanisms that could cause society's need for oil to begin declining by 2035.
Price-competitive alternatives to conventional oil are another factor behind the peak in demand.
Competition comes from increasing quantities of fuel from oil sands, liquid fuels from coal, natural gas, biofuels, hydrogen and electricity generated from renewable sources.
The researchers did not try to forecast peak demand's impact on oil prices. But even if oil prices spend much time above the historical upper range of $140 a barrel, the peak in demand will only come sooner than they forecast.
"If prices rise above their current levels for an extended period, we're likely to see even more efforts to improve efficiency and exploit alternatives to conventional oil," said Millard-Ball, adding: "That would hasten the onset of a demand-driven peak."
The new research, though encouraging, does not describe a transportation future free of worry. Instead, the researchers recommend a shift in attention to the various alternatives to conventional oil.
Policymakers should not rely on oil scarcity to constrain damage to the world's climate. The alternatives to conventional oil emit varying amounts of greenhouse gases, while large-scale production of biofuels could have a disruptive impact on food prices and on local ecosystems where the plants are grown.
"If you care about the environment, you should care about where we are getting these fuels, whether we use the oil sands or biofuels," said Brandt.
"Our study is agnostic on what mix of oil substitutes emerges, but we do know that if we don't manage them well, there will be big consequences," he added.