On the third day of an interactive seminar on Transformations in West Asia
Ahmed Morsy, a research associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the change which can be seen following the Arab Spring. He said the Arab Spring was not about democracy or governance, but basically a fight between societies and rulers, a fight for unemployment and economic development.
"This was basically the grievances which were boiling for too long within the people actually came out in the open on streets seeking good governance and accountability for their respective governments," he said.
P.K. Kumaraswamy, a professor at JNU's School of International Studies, said India's relationship with the Middle East is looked at in terms of trade, as UAE's (United Arab Emirates) largest trading partner was India. Also, he said, India, which relies heavily on the Middle East for oil imports, can ill afford to ignore not only in present terms, but also in the foreseeable future, where it could be in a situation like Japan, which sources 95 per cent of its energy resources from there.
He said that there are several broad issues that define this region currently; He held out Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry as one of the flashpoints. Next to that, it was the emergence of Islamists who have legitimized themselves as significant, but not substantially powerful, giving an example of Syria, which is facing instability much like Afghanistan or Libya where no stability can be witnessed anytime soon. He gave an estimate, saying that the cost of violence has already sucked 31 billion dollars with a hundred twenty thousand people killed in Syria. He said that Syria won't be the same as it used to be.
The third important aspect he spoke about was on GCC (Gulf Co-operation Council) states, where member states, though homogeneous in language, culture and religion, are a fractured lot, which can seen from the fact that new members Jordan and Morocco were not allowed membership in the grouping.
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He also gave the instance of Saudi-Qatar tip off, where off late, the polices laid out by the Saudis are failing in respect to Qatar, who are now having an upper hand in internationally in terms of diplomacy in the region. Fourthly, he suggested that both Israel and Saudi Arabia were not onboard over the proposed Iran-United States nuclear deal talks.
Fifthly, militant outfits like the Hamas and the Hezbollah becoming effective as dominant players in the region were not playing an active part. He warned that these outfits make problems more complicated. Lastly, he outlined U.S hegemony in the region was fading.
Speaking at the same forum, Indrani Bagchi, senior editor for the Times of India, put down that India was more comfortable with the idea of a Middle East, than terming it as West Asia. She said that with the U.S becoming energy sufficient because of its discovery of huge shale gas reserves, was both an opportunity and a challenge for India.
She stressed that on a number of foreign heads of state from that region recently paying a visit to New Delhi, stressing that how much India was on their scheme of things, and this is something India can leverage to its advantage in its energy and trade ties with this region. She said that with the U.S imposing sanctions on Iran, it has benefitted India to enlarge its energy basket and look for other countries to source oil.
Bagchi said that India and Saudi Arabia have recently strengthened their defence ties as India signed a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, the same time as Pakistan signed a similar one with the Saudis. This she said will help root out the funding of jehadi groups in the region that thrive on generous money poured by the Saudis. But she was quick to point out that India must be categorical with the Saudis in telling them that it was not a recognition of the regime which has been criticized for its human rights record.
The pitfall of U.S disengagement can be seen from the fact that Saudi Arabia has been sourcing fighters from the Pakistan to help the Syrian militias which she said was a cause of concern. Also with Iran pursuing a nuclear deal with U.S that could hasten the Saudis to seek similar arrangements easily with Pakistan in a situation if Iran were to be relatively a step away from having a nuclear bomb.
Bagchi did not negate the fact that Shia-Sunni divide which is ingrained with the tussle seen in Saudi-Iran rivalry could spill over to India as well which could have a devastating effect on us and India has to tread carefully.
She also brought the Afghanistan angle where after the drawdown of U.S troops, India and Iran both who share the same stand on not letting the Taliban return at the helm, although she added that each country has developed independent stakes of deterring Taliban in their own way.
Bagchi said what the current External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid had said that India has the capability and intention to ensure free navigation in sea lanes in the Middle East which was not missed by the delegates of the meet attended by Khurshid . She disagreed with Khurshid saying India would never be an interventionist power in the region or it can be as this was against its basic tenets of its foreign policy. What mattered to India was to protect its 6 million Indians who are residing and working there and that is what it mattered most. India she said will do well if it engages the region by a web of political, economic security so that the challenges which India faces could be reduced considerably.