After emerging victorious in Maharashtra and Odisha local elections, it is time for the Bharatiya Janata Party to test waters in Uttar Pradesh.
Fiscal 2016-17 has seen an ocean of initiatives being rolled out by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government. While relentless debates have been held with regards to many of them, the UP election results will show the parties contesting---the truth.
Flagged off with Prime Minister Modi's 'masterstroke' to eradicate corruption and the circulation of black money in the economy, demonetisation will have a major impact on the flow of votes coming in from Uttar Pradesh in support of the BJP.
Post demonetisation, sugarcane farmers and daily-wage labourers have been worst affected due to shortage of cash flow in the economy. According to reports, there was a major delay in farmers' payments due to non-availability of cash.
Furthermore, suicide rates in the state have gone up during this phase.
Citing this situation, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav had offered compensation to the families of the victims, further stressing on the same during the election rallies he addressed.
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Having said this, the phase has seen citizens gradually accepting the existence of a digital economy via promotion of cashless transactions. Additionally, improvement has been distinctly observed in the investment sector, with a rise in foreign investments and reduction in fiscal deficit.
After Prime Minister Modi took charge at the Centre, the economy has seen a significant growth and is now viable to foreign investments and market expansion of Multinational Corporations (MNC) into the Indian market.
A similar growth trend has been assured to locals in several parts of Uttar Pradesh during the BJP election rallies that were addressed by Prime Minister Modi and other BJP frontrunners. The motif in UP has been fixed on enhancing the growth potential of the state, keeping in mind the upliftment of the smaller sectors of the economy. Voters are being persuaded on grounds of remuneration being provided immediately.
Post demonetisation, the grassroots of society has completely come to a standstill. Rural dwellers have been finding it difficult to meet their basic needs without access to money. Most of the time has been spent outside ATMs or government offices protesting against the changes that has brought turmoil in their lives.
Early this year, political parties resumed their respective campaigns in UP after what was observed to be a complete standstill.
The agriculture sector is representing a share of around 14 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and 11 percent of India's total export. This year's Union Budget 2017-18 saw the agricultural sector being the nucleus for growth in the country. With regards to this, a BJP victory can curtail the monetary pressure on farmers that has been caused due to lack of payment for productivity. A hit to agriculture this year will have a direct impact on India's USD 2 trillion economy and companies that depend directly or indirectly on the farm sector and rural consumption.
From the market's perspective, there is nothing else which is going to be more important than the outcome of UP elections. The market is predicted to take shape towards wholesome growth if results are in favour of the BJP, as policies implemented post this will work in sync with policies being implemented at the Centre, as predicted by market analysts.
Commencing in the aura of high-pitched campaigns by competing political parties - BJP, Samajwadi Party-Congress and BSP, the thrust of the campaigns has been on eradication of corruption, communal violence and facilitating sector-wise development in the state.
There are 404 seats in the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly. The results of the polls will be announced on March 11.