The voters in Jammu and Kashmir came out in unprecedented numbers during the Assembly election and defied the threats held out against them by the separatists and the militants.
The five phase free and fair elections in which over 65 per cent of the eligible voters participated were lauded across India and the world and the verdict was that democracy had won in Jammu and Kashmir.
As the snowflakes settled down after the elections, there is another puzzle as to who would form the next government in the State. The People's Democratic Party led the tally with 28 members in the Assembly, the Bharatiya Janata Party came next with with 25, the National Conference with 15, and the Indian National Congress secured 12, with others claiming the rest to make a total of 87 seats.
The BJP which hoped to accomplish 'Mission 44' managed to get a sizable number of votes in the Kashmir valley, but could not win any seat there. The National Conference and the Congress which together had ruled the State for six years, suffered as they broke their alliance during the elections. Even so, the National Conference, which fought the elections in the absence of their charismatic leader Dr Farooq Abdullah, came third against expectations.
The Congress, which had fared badly in the Lok Sabha elections in the country, managed to secure twelve seats , thanks to the campaigning by Ghulam Nabi Azad, who had led the State for three years in the coalition Government that ruled the State between 2002 and 2008.
The question remains, who would form the Government in the State? The People's Democratic Party has been offered support by the National Conference, which would bring it near to the half way mark and it could form the Government with the support of some independents. In that case the State Government will have hardly any representative from Jammu region.
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There has been much debate about the manifestoes presented before the electorate by the parties during the elections. The National Conference had fought on the demand for withdrawal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act and the grant of autonomy for the State, while the Peoples Democratic Party talked of 'self-rule'. The BJP had been talking for decades that it would like Article 370 to be abolished, though It had soft pedaled it during its campaigning in the Kashmir Valley.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi who led the BJP campaign in the Assembly election promised the people that if BJP came to power it would concentrate on economic development in the state.
The PDP, which is leading the tally has kept open the issue regarding its associate party. It has had contacts with the BJP. Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, who was a Congress Leader till the middle eighties, moved to the Centre, won the Lok Sabha elections during the Lok Sabha elections from Muzaffarnagar, and joined the National Front Government of Vishwanath Pratap Singh and held office as Home Minister.
A coalition government of the PDP and the BJP would give representation to almost all parts of the State. If necessary the Government could have a representative from Ladakh.
Apparently, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed would like an assurance that the BJP will not raise the issue of Article 370. The issue is more of an academic nature as both the Indian Constitution and the Constitution and the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir contain provisions concerning it, and changing it at the present juncture is difficult. As far as the Armed Forces Special Powers Act is concerned, it could be selectively lifted. Even the former Home Minister Chidambaram had supported the demand presented by former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, but the Defence Ministry had turned it down.
Again, a PDP- BJP Government will be able to get the support of a BJP led NDA Government at the Centre. There has been discussions between the PDP and the BJP. Mufti Mohammed Sayeed,had also met Abdul Ghani Bhat, a separatist leader after the elections. One expects that the delay has helped in arriving as a realistic assessment of the post election results, and Jammu and Kashmir will have a new government before the deadline , which is 19th January when the last Assembly completes six years. Keep your fingers crossed.
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