The swearing in of Pallewatte Gamaralalage Maithripala Yapa Sirisena or Maithripala Sirisena for short, as Sri Lanka's new President on January 09, 2015 provides the country an opportunity to reboot its foreign policy.
Under former President Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka's foreign policy had become controversial for two key reasons: One, Sri Lanka had abandoned its balanced foreign policy to make it not only China-centric but the perception was that it was China-centric with a view to thumbing India. Two, it had become confrontational with the West over non-cooperation on issues pertaining to human rights abuses during the concluding phases of the civil war.
Will Sirisena's elevation to the Presidency lead to Sri Lanka reversing track? The portents are encouraging.
Ranil Wickremasinghe as 3rd time PM brings to the table familiarity and goodwill vis-a-viz India and the West. On the flip side, he has been seen as giving in too much to the LTTE by the Sinhala hardliners. With the LTTE out of the way, Wickremasinghe will find more space in dealing with India and the West. His business-friendly approach would dove-tail in well with the similar approach of Indian PM Modi.
Additionally, President Sirisena is expected to visit New Delhi next month on his first State visit abroad. This augurs well for bilateral relations with India in the immediate future. However, in the long term, Sirisena would have to confront the contentious Tamil question that has marred bilateral relations with India for decades.
Issues like demilitarization of the North, implementation of the 13th amendment, devolution of power and power-sharing in the North and East, return of land taken over by the military etc. would have to be tackled.
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India would be hoping that the overwhelming support given to him by the Tamils that helped de-throne Rajapaksa would come in handy in tackling such issues. His promise in Kandy on Jan 11 after being sworn in that he would build peace and understanding between all communities so that they can move forward as a united nation, augur well. Yet, fact remains that Sirisena's Sinhala hardliner coalition partners would be averse to any major concessions to the Tamils.
For India, it would be crucial not to keep seeing bilateral relations through the tunnel vision of the Tamils and Tamil Nadu alone. It would have to seize the opportunity to forge stronger economic and defense ties, something that had floundered on Rajapaksa's watch. India must see Sri Lanka as a strategic partner for its own security interests. Recent reports about Pakistan using Sri Lanka as a base to infiltrate agents- both intelligence and terror- needs no emphasis.
China is another area that Sirisena would have to tackle. Rajapaksa's 'tilt' is expected to be corrected though how much space Sirisena actually has is debatable.
Sirisena's problem will be trying to halt the across-the-board Chinese infrastructure projects mid-way without harming the economy. Additionally, almost 70 per cent of Sri Lankan military hardware today is 'Made in China'. China is also eyeing a much greater role in the Indian Ocean with Sri Lanka a crucial peg in President Xi's pet project - the maritime Silk Road connecting China with Europe. It will not easily cede the space it has so assiduously cultivated.
Yet, for China, the results are certainly awkward. China had invested heavily in the Rajapaksa family and would now have to seek broad-base support in a democratic polity. It would have to consider the hostile comments made by Sirisena about foreign investment - "The land that the White Man took over by means of military strength is now being obtained by foreigners by paying ransom to a handful of persons" and his opposition to a developmental model of getting loans from China at high interest rates. He has promised to repeal this in his manifesto, calling foreign debt a "trap" for Sri Lanka.
Such words would be music to Indian ears that off late has also been worried about the strategic implications of the docking of Chinese submarines in Colombo.
Sirisena will have to deal with the UN-mandated investigation into human rights violations during the final phase of the civil war that will place its findings at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva in March 2015. British PM Cameron has already asked President Sirisena to facilitate the UN investigation. It was Rajapaksa's blocking of such investigations and the resultant US criticism that brought Rajapaksa close to China.
This will be a tough call for Sirisena. He would not like to start off on a wrong foot with the international community realizing that he would need foreign investment from the West if he is to correct the 'tilt' towards China. His remarks, after being sworn in as President that he was keen to extend an olive branch to the international community, are encouraging. Yet he will find it difficult to deal with his Sinhala constituency if he is too flexible to allow an international investigation, blocked for so long by Rajapaksa.
Thus, Sirisena's plate would be full of difficult foreign policy challenges-both short and long term. His mettle will be put to the test in steering Sri Lanka through these choppy waters.
Salim Haq is an independent international affairs and security observer specialising in South Asia. He tweets at @salimhaq6.