In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF forecasted that global growth to average 3.6% in 2014?up from 3% in 2013?and to rise to 3.9% in 2015.
The IMF stated that major impulse to global growth has come from the United States, where annual growth in 2014-15 is projected to be above trend at about 2%. More moderate fiscal consolidation helps; support also comes from accommodative monetary conditions, a recovering real estate sector, and higher household wealth.
In the euro area, growth has turned positive. Across the euro area, a strong reduction in the pace of fiscal tightening is expected to help lift growth. Outside the core euro area, contributions from net exports have helped the turnaround, as has the stabilization of domestic demand. However, growth in demand is expected to remain sluggish, given continued financial fragmentation, tight credit, and a high corporate debt burden. Growth performance will therefore continue to lag the core euro area.
In Japan economic activity is expected to get a boost from some underlying growth drivers, notably private investment and exports. Nevertheless, economic activity overall is projected to slow moderately in response to a tightening fiscal policy stance in 2014-15, starting with the rise in consumption tax.
Emerging market and developing economies continue to contribute more than two-thirds of global growth, and their growth is projected to increase moderately from 4.7% in 2013 to 4.9% in 2014 and 5.3% in 2015. The weaker momentum compared with advanced economies reflects in part the adjustment to a less favourable external financial environment and, in some cases, continued weak investment and other domestic structural constraints. Going forward, stronger exports to advanced economies are expected to underpin moderate increase in growth.
The forecast for China is that growth will remain broadly unchanged at about 7% in 2014-15 as the authorities seek to put the economy on a more balanced and sustainable growth path. In India, real GDP growth is projected to strengthen, partly due to government efforts to revive investment growth.
Near-term prospects in Russia and many other economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have been downgraded, reflecting the fallout from the Ukraine crisis. In emerging and developing Europe, growth is expected to decelerate in 2014 before recovering moderately in 2015, largely reflecting changing external financial conditions.
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Meanwhile, talk that China could be readying new economic support measures also helped investors largely put aside worries about geopolitics and slowing U.S. stimulus that fuelled a turbulent start to the year for emerging assets. Among Asian bourses, Australian stock market finished the session at highest point since June 2008, spurred by stronger commodity prices, an unexpected rise in consumer confidence, acceleration in home lending, and an unexpected rise in consumer confidence. Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX200 and the broader All Ordinaries both finished 1% up at 5463.80 and 5460.30, respectively.
Australian market opened higher today, on tracking positive cues from offshore markets. The equity markets in the United States rebounded on Tuesday night as concerns about the technology sector abated. Meanwhile buying pressure accelerated after the data on monthly Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of consumer confidence showed a rise of 0.3 per cent to 99.7 points in April. A reading below 100 points indicates there are more pessimists than optimists on the state of the economy. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the flat result was mildly surprising, given consumers had reasons to be optimistic.
Consumer discretionary sector was best performer in the ASX sectoral peer, led by David Jones. The upmarket department store chain surged 22.6 per cent to A$3.91, as the board recommended shareholders accept A$2.148 billion takeover offer from South African retail giant Woolworths( A$4 per share offer, which is 25 per cent more than DJs shares were trading at prior to the announcement). Subsequently, Australia's largest owner of department stores, Myer (MYR) issued a statement announcing the withdrawal of its offer for DJS. MYR surged by 3.9 per cent, partly making up for its 15 per cent takeover offer induced sell-off in March.
Top four lenders in the Sydney were all higher, after report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed housing finance commitments were flat in trend terms for February, but rose 2.3 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. ANZ Banking Group added 0.9% to A$33.86, and National Australia Bank rose 0.6% to A$35.40. Commonwealth Bank of Australia rose 1% to A$77.49 and Westpac Banking Corporation rose 0.7% to A $34.70.
Shares of bullion mining companies continued rising for second day, on the back of stronger gold prices in the international market. The Comex futures quote was up by US$10.80 an ounce to US$1,309.10 per ounce. Newcrest Mining added 3.7% to A$10.89, Perseus Mining 2.4% to A$0.435 and Kingsgate Consolidated 25% to A$1.04.
Material sector was up 1.4%, as base metal prices were generally firmer by up to 1.2% on the London Metal Exchange on Tuesday with zinc leading the way. Resources giant BHP Billiton was up 1.4% to A$38.40. Rio Tinto rose 1% to A$65.14. Fortescue Metals Group fell 0.9% to A$5.54.
In Japan, headline indices of the Japanese share market retreated for third consecutive day, as risk aversion selloff across the board amid yen appreciation against greenback and IMF downward revision of Japan growth forecast. The benchmark Nikkei-225 index and the Topix index of all first-section both stumbled 2.1% to 14299.69 and 1150.44, respectively.
Tokyo market opened sharply down today, as selloff in the currency and inflation sensitive stocks after the yen appreciated against the greenback on disappointment after the Bank of Japan's decision to stand pat on monetary policy.
The Japan central bank's decision on Tuesday to refrain from adding to its already lavish monetary stimulus has helped to push the yen higher. There had been hopes for more stimulus in the wake of an increase in Japan's sales tax to 8% from 5% that could crimp recovery in the world's third-largest economy. The dollar was trading at about 102 yen, down from about 104 yen a month earlier, which if sustained could hurt sales and earnings at export-reliant companies.
Meanwhile selling pressure intensified after the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its 2014 growth forecast for Japan. In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said it expected Japan's economy to grow 1.4% this year, down from an earlier 1.7% forecast, before slowing to 1% in 2015. The Washington-based Fund also warned that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe must follow through on promised reforms to cement a turnaround in the world's number-three economy.
Shares of Japanese exporters and inflation-sensitive companies slid the most in Tokyo due to yen appreciation against the US dollar. The dollar was trading at Y101.95 as of the TSE close, compared with Y102.85 at the close of the Tokyo bourse Tuesday. A stronger yen is worst for Japanese manufacturers, as it makes prices of goods more costly overseas. Sony Corp lost 3.4%, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group fell 3.3%, Daiwa Securities Group slipped 3.3%, and Sumitomo Realty & Development fell 3.8%.
Toyota Motor led auto makers down on news the firm is recalling about 6.39 million vehicles worldwide, spanning 27 models. Toyota closed down 3.1%, while Suzuki Motor fell 4.1%. The sector was hurt by both the yen's rise and the recall news.
Shares of many retailers fell after department store operator Takashimaya reported a 25% sales drop in the first week since the sales tax was went to 8% from 5% on April 1. While Takashimaya found some buying support to close down only 0.7%, others in the sector were less fortunate. Convenience store operator Lawson lost 1.6% while J. Front Retailing tumbled 3.3%.
Mitsui O.S.K shares slipped 5.5% to 376 yen after the cargo transporter said it's selling about $500 million in convertible bonds to raise funds for capital expenditure.
In China, Mainland China share market closed modest higher, as sustained buying in undervalued stocks amid growing hopes that Chinese government would introduce stimulus to ward off a slowdown.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, advanced 0.33% from prior day closure to finish at 2105.24, while the CSI 300 Index, measuring exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, added 0.06% to 2238.62.
The Chinese benchmark indexes has rebounded 5.6% since March 20 as the government eased funding restrictions for financial companies and outlined a package of measures to support growth last week, including railway spending and tax relief.
HSBC said in its latest China investment atlas that Chinese shares have fallen to levels which are well below their five-year average, and are too cheap to ignore. No matter whether it is in terms of price-to-earnings or price-to-book terms, some Chinese stocks are valued even lower than during the global financial crisis, Steven Sun, HSBC's head of China equity strategy, said in the report.
Among SSE sectors, 9/10 sectors of the SSE index advanced, with information technology sector was top winner in the SSE sectoral peers, with a 2% gain. Meanwhile, telecommunication services issue was up 1%, consumer discretionary up 0.9%, energy up 0.7%, healthcare up 0.7%, materials up 0.3%, industrials up 0.2%, utilities up 0.1% and consumer staples up 0.1%.
Shares of technology companies climbed up on bargain hunting. Sanan Optoelectronics advanced 3.4% to 24.84 yuan. DHC Software Co. added 2.9% to 41.60 yuan.
Shares of rail-related companies jumped on reports the government will rise railway spending. The government raised its railway fixed-asset investment target for this year to 720 billion yuan ($116.2 billion), higher than the 700 billion yuan target it set at the beginning of the year, the People's Daily reported, citing Sheng Guangzu, general manager of China Railway Corp. CSR Corp advanced 1.3% to 4.74 yuan, its highest level in three months.
Wasu Media shares closed 10% daily limit to 28.09 yuan as it resumed trading for the first time since Feb. 24. The company said the investment will help it accelerate expansion in new media and big-data services, fund purchases of cable TV networks and cut debts.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers stated that passenger vehicle sales in China rose 9% year on year in March, as consumers made purchases out of concerns that more cities will limit ownership. Retail deliveries of cars, multipurpose and sport utility vehicles climbed to 1.59 million units in March, the Passenger Car Association said yesterday in a statement. Hangzhou, the capital of eastern Zhejiang province, joined Beijing and Shanghai to become the sixth Chinese city to impose quotas on new vehicle purchases, as part of measures to alleviate traffic congestion and air pollution. Consumers are making purchases in anticipation more cities will roll out similar measures as local governments respond to Premier Li Keqiang's call to wage war on smog.
In Hong Kong, city's market advanced for second consecutive day on the back of gain in financial, realty and resources stocks. The benchmark Hang Seng index was up by 1.1% to 22843.17, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.6% to 10380.74.
Among the HK 50 blue chips, 44 rose and 5 fell, with one stocks remaining steady. Want Want China Holdings advanced 3.57% to HK$12.78, contributing 10-points gains to the benchmark Index and becoming the best-performing blue chip. Kunlun Energy Co declined 2.05% to HK$12.42, contributing 3-points losses to the benchmark Index and becoming the worst-performing blue chip.
Mengniu Dairy (02319) put on 1.7% to HK$42, fresh all-time highs. Sinopec (00386) and Hang Seng Bank (00011) also advanced 3.5% and 1.7% to HK$7.31 and HK$128.4. The closing prices were not seen for nearly 6 years.
Tencent, Asia's largest Internet company, rose 2.8% to HK$523.50, on the top of yesterday's 1.6% advance, helped by continued bargain hunting after a 21% tumble from its March 6 record.
Geely Automobile shares dropped 0.9% to HK$3.16 after the automaker said its total sales volume for March was 34,757 units, a decrease of about 27% over the same period last year. The exports volume was 6,480 units in March, down around 29% from the same period last year. The total sales volume in China market was 28,277 units, a decrease of around 27% from the same period last year.
In India, Indian benchmark stock index rose to a record high as lenders and drugmakers climbed. Gains also tracked Asian stocks hitting a near six-month high on Wednesday. Shares remain supported by overseas investors, who bought Indian shares worth 7.03 billion rupees on Monday, provisional exchange data shows, totalling nearly $4.5 billion so far in 2014.
The BSE Sensex rose as much as 1.77% to an all-time high of 22,740.04, surpassing its previous lifetime high hit on April 3. The Nifty rose as much as 1.7% to a record high of 6,808.70. The benchmark BSE Sensex ended 1.61% higher, while the broader Nifty closed 1.51% up, marking their record closing highs as well.
Sun Pharmaceutical rose 7.12%, its biggest single day percentage gain since May 2009, adding to its 2.9% rise on Monday, as brokers upgraded the stock after Sun agreed to buy Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd for $3.2 billion. Ranbaxy shares also rallied 4.9% on expectations of potential synergies after the deal with Sun Pharmaceutical.
Bank shares surged on hopes for easing bond yields and better-than-expected inflation data next week. ICICI Bank rose 4.2%, while HDFC Bank surged 2.3%. Among state-run banks, State Bank of India rose 3.3% and Bank of Baroda ended 5.6% higher.
Elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region, New Zealand's NZX50 added 0.71%. Taiwan's Taiex index added 0.48%. South Korea's KOSPI index was up 0.3%. Malaysia's KLSE Composite rose 0.2%. Singapore's Straits Times index added 0.22%. Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index edged up 0.01%.
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