The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for global growth this year as expansions in the US and UK accelerates, and urged advanced economies to maintain monetary accommodation to strengthen the recovery. The global economy will grow 3.7% this year, compared with an October estimate of 3.6%, the IMF said in revisions to its World Economic Outlook released in Washington.
US gross domestic product will expand 2.8%, compared with 2.6%; Japan will gain 1.7% versus 1.2%; and the UK will increase 2.4% from 1.9%, the report showed. "In advanced economies, output gaps generally remain large and, given the risks, the monetary policy stance should stay accommodative while fiscal consolidation continues," the Washington-based organization said in the report. "In many emerging market and developing economies, stronger external demand from advanced economies will lift growth, although domestic weaknesses remain a concern." Central banks in the US, Japan and the euro area face inflation levels under their targets while trying to accelerate growth with policies including benchmark interest rates near zero and bond-buying programs. While it raised the outlook for advanced nations, the IMF said "downside risks remain," including financial-market volatility in emerging markets.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) today, 22 January 2014, pledged to maintain economic stimulus after a two-day monetary policy review. The BOJ said it will keep plans to increase the monetary base annually by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen and maintained its inflation target for 2015.
Among Asian bourses, Australian stock market finished in the red, after a stronger than expected inflation reading reduced the chance of another cut in the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the near term. All sectors declined, with exception being financial, shares in materials & resources, bullion, and consumer related stocks led losses. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index declined 11.70 points to 5319.80. The broader All Ordinaries dropped 10.70 points to 5331.30.
The Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation in Australia, rose by 0.8% in the December quarter 2013- which came after a 1.2% rise in the third-quarter - took the annual rate to 2.7% and placed it closer to top end of the RBA's target 2-to-3% range, according to the Bureau of Statistics data released today.
Shares of metal & mining companies continued falling for second day, in part due to a weaker iron ore price and also as BHP Billiton (BHP) production numbers fell short of market expectation. The spot price for iron ore, landed in China, fell 1.3% to $US123.20 a tonne. Fortescue Metals was down 1.1% to A$5.38. Rio Tinto fell 0.8% to A$65.29.
BHP Billiton dropped 0.8% to A$37.63. The mining giant said today that its petroleum production was down 4% in the December quarter, while iron ore output rose 16% and copper output was up 6%.
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Shares of precious metal miners were lower after the spot gold price fell nearly 1% on Tuesday night to $US1241 an ounce. Australia's biggest gold miner Newcrest Mining (NCM) declined 3.1% to A$9.34 on caution ahead of the release of its quarterly production report on Thursday, while Perseus Mining sank 6% to A$0.395 and Kingsgate Consolidated shed 2.9% to A$1.155.
Australia's oil producers were weak despite the price of Brent crude oil rising to $US107.07 a barrel after the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil consumption. Woodside Petroleum fell 0.6% to A$38.15. Oil and gas producer Santos fell 1% to A$14.26, ahead of reporting quarterly production figures on Thursday.
In Japan, headline indices of the Japan's share market closed modest higher after recouping intraday losses as investors encouraged by Bank of Japan statement that its monetary easing program was winning the war against deflation and stood pat on its stimulus program. Tokyo stocks briefly fell after the outcome amid selling from investors who bet on the bank unveiling additional stimulus measures, but shares soon recouped their losses.
The benchmark Nikkei-225 index added 25 points to 15820.96, while the Topix index of all first-section shares rose 3.68 points to 1299.63.
TDK rose 6.3% to Y5250 after Nomura raised its target to Y6300 from Y4900, citing improvements in two of its mainstay products.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said on Wednesday after wrapping-up its two day policy meeting that its board decided by a unanimous vote to maintain the bank's policy target and growth and inflation forecasts for the next two years. The BoJ said its monetary easing program put in place in April 2013 will lead Japan's economy to overcome the deflation that has lasted for nearly 15 years. The Bank of Japan will conduct money market operations so that the monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about Y60 to Y70 trillion," the BOJ said, adding that its financial asset purchases will also proceed as decided in April.
Looking ahead, the BOJ's nine-member board maintained its projections provided three months ago that Japan's GDP will expand at a high pace close to 3% in the current fiscal year before slowing to a more sustainable rate above 1% in the following two years. The policymakers still believe that consumer price gains will move closer to the bank's target of stable 2% inflation in fiscal 2014 and largely reach that level in fiscal 2015. The BOJ wants to hit the target in about two years from April 2013, when it launched aggressive easing.
Japan's leading economic index rose to 111.1 in November from 109.8 in October and 109.1 in September. The preliminary estimates were for a reading of 110.8. The leading economic index increased for the third successive month in November, and exceeded the initial estimates, revised data released by the Cabinet Office revealed Wednesday. At the same time, the coincident economic index, a measure of the current economic situation, moved up to 110.7 in November from 110.4 in the prior month. The flash estimates were for a score of 110.5. The lagging index, which reflects the past performance of the economy, advanced to 114.1 from 112.6 in October. The index has been revised down from 114.7 estimated earlier.
In Thailand, Thai shares fell as a state of emergency began in the capital amid attacks on anti-government protesters. The Thai SET index was down 0.2% to 1290.49.
A pro-government leader was shot and wounded on Wednesday in Thailand's northeast, a stronghold of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, as a 60-day state of emergency began in and around Bangkok where protesters are trying to force her from power.
In China, Mainland China's market surged sharply, on the back of continued bargain buying across the board, with blue chips of consumer goods, materials, industrials and telecom companies leading rally. The Shanghai benchmark ended higher 43.44 higher at 2051.75, while CSI 300 Index inclined 56.39 points to 2243.80.
Bargain buying in the Mainland China market continued for second straight day on calming jitteriness over liquidity crunch in the China market after the People's Bank of China stepped up its provisioning of liquidity to the market on Tuesday, announcing that it has offered short-term funding to smaller lenders via its Standing Lending Facility (SLF).
The PBOC injected a large dose of cash on Tuesday morning, adding 255 billion yuan in the first open market operation since December 24. With the Chinese New Year just over a week away, the authorities appear determined not to repeat the spike in money rates which paralyzed the system back in June. The China's financial markets are closed from Jan. 31 through to Feb. 6 for the Lunar New Year holidays.
Mainland financials and developers shares rallied. Ping An Bank surged 3.8% to 11.79 yuan. Huaxia Bank Co. climbed 2.3% to 8.15 yuan. China Vanke Co., the biggest developer, rallied 5.5% to 7.62 yuan. Poly Real Estate, the second largest, was up 7.3% to 8.09 yuan.
Distilleries were also higher, with Kweichow Moutai leading rally, up 5.7% to 133.17 yuan, extending gains to 12% this week, after the company targets 2014 sales of 45 billion yuan.
Materials and resources shares were higher. Jiangxi Copper, the biggest producer of the metal, rallied 2.5% to 13.55 yuan. Aluminum Corp. of China, known as Chalco, climbed 2.8% to 3.30 yuan.
In Hong Kong, shares in city's market finished the session slight higher, on tracking sharp gains in the Mainland China market and as the International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast. The benchmark Hang Seng Index provisionally finished 49.13 points higher at 23082.25.
Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong were higher on alleviated liquidity conditions as the central bank injected liquidity over the last few days. Bank of Communications Co rose 0.6% to HK$5.52 and Agricultural Bank of China added 0.9% to HK$3.49. CBC (00939), ICBC (012398) and CM Bank (03968) gained 1% to HK$5.62, HK$4.98 and HK$14.68. CCB (00939), ICBC (1398) and BOC (03988) also put on less than 1%.
Energy stocks were weak. China's largest offshore oil-and-gas producer Cnooc extended its falling streak today, down 1.7% to HK$12.86, after the company on Monday set a lower target for output growth in 2014 than the average annual growth goal for the five years through 2015. Another major Chinese oil company, PetroChina Co lost 0.5% to HK$8.03.
Macau gaming stocks were down after JP Morgan released a new report on Macau gaming sector proposing offload before the result season. Galaxy (00027) slid 5.5% to HK$76.95. Sands China (01928) fell 4.1% to HK$61.85. MGM (02282) plunged 6.6% to HK$32.65 on a rating downgrade.
In India, Indian stocks closed higher for the third day in a row, sending the S&P BSE Sensex to a record closing high. The S&P BSE Sensex ended 86 points to record its fresh closing high of 21,337.67. The earlier record high on the Sensex was 21,326.42; made on December 9, 2013.
On the BSE, healthcare, metal, oil & gas and realty indices remained investors' favourite and were up 1.31 per cent, 0.93 per cent, 0.76 per cent and 0.55 per cent, respectively. On the other hand, capital goods and FMCG indices lost investors' support and were down 0.52 per cent and 0.14 per cent, respectively.
Metal and mining stocks edged higher for the second day in a row after China's central bank on Tuesday, 21 January 2014, said it provided emergency funding support for commercial banks as they gear up to meet demands for cash ahead of the Lunar New Year. Pharma stocks edged higher. HDFC eked out small gains after reporting a decent growth in bottom line in Q3 December 2013.
Zee Entertainment Enterprises rose after the company's chairman Subhash Chandra said at the time of announcement of the company's Q3 results that while the overall economic environment stays challenging, Zee continues to growth its business at a healthy pace. Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) fell in volatile trade on massive volume after multiple bulk deals were executed on the counter in early afternoon trade. Index heavyweight and cigarette major ITC edged lower. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) edged higher. Shares of local search engine, Just Dial, surged.
Elsewhere in the Asia Pacific region, New Zealand's NZX50 index rose 0.58%. South Korea's KOSPI added 0.33%. Indonesia's Jakarta Composite index added 0.56%. Taiwan's Taiex index sank 0.3%. Malaysia's KLSE Composite sank 0.07%. Singapore's Straits Times index closed virtually flat at 3133.74.
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