Borrower Overleverage Warrants Course Correction from MFIs

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) says that if money flow does not fully normalise by 4QFY17, Tier 1 capital of few microfinance institutions (MFIs) could near regulatory minimum levels. Ind-Ra's analysis indicates that a section of joint liability group (JLG) borrowers could be overleveraged. Moreover, overcrowding of MFIs in some highly penetrated states may adversely affect MFIs' asset quality, especially with low growth in new-to-microfinance borrowers.

Demonetisation to Inculcate Banking Habits Once Short-Term Liquidity Pressure Eases: The agency expects MFI borrowers to reprioritise their expenses on account of a cash flow mismatch in the next few weeks. This would lead to an increase in one-month overdues of many MFIs. If money flow does not fully normalise by 4QFY17, Tier 1 capital of few MFIs could near regulatory minimum levels. Ind-Ra's analysis indicates that most MFIs have liquidity in the form of unencumbered cash and unavailed bank lines to meet debt obligations for 30-60 days in the event of business disruption. The agency expects banking habits to improve in the long term, as currency flow resumes.

Borrowers' Leverage Approaching Serviceability Limits: In Ind-Ra's opinion, a typical two-income JLG borrower household could service INR50,000-INR60,000 of debt in over two years. The peak leverage of a section of JLG borrowers is approaching these levels. In 1HFY17, the level of the real income growth of rural borrowers was almost the same as the rural consumer price index, indicating that the ticket size growth rate of existing borrowers should moderate to contain the impact of borrowers' rising leverage.

The growth in the gross loan portfolio (GLP) of MFIs in nine of top 10 states was driven more by an increase in ticket size than by a rise in penetration (clients serviced per branch). This indicates an uptrend in leverage in these states. Wage rate-based annual income to annual EMI ratio stands at 1.8x-2.0x for the highest leveraged states such as Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha and at 5x for the lowest leveraged states such as Kerala.

Rising Risk of Unreported Multiple Borrowings in Some States: Ind-Ra believes that the continued focus of MFIs on some of the highest penetrated states such as West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka has increased the risk of unreported multiple borrowings in such states. Hence, the chance of a surge in delinquencies is high in these states. The agency's analysis of penetration indicates that West Bengal is the highest penetrated state, followed by Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

Steady Rise in Delinquency Indicates Stress in Some Regions: Ind-Ra believes that the percentage of one-month overdue loans (portfolio at risk greater than 30 days (PAR >30)), as reported by MFIs, underestimate the actual default rate of borrowers because of the base effect. The currently reported PAR > 30 numbers have become artificially low because of the accelerated growth registered by MFIs last year. Ind-Ra's estimate of PAR > 30 for end-1QFY17, based on the base of the disbursement in 1QFY16 and 2QFY16, indicates that PAR > 30 crossed 1% in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, and is in fact close to 2% for Gujarat.

Nine of Top 12 MFIs Need Higher Capital to Account for Low-Quality Geographical Mix: Five of the top 12 MFIs analysed by Ind-Ra have low geographical diversification and are exposed to regions with high default expectations. These five MFIs had a GLP of INR96bn at end-1QFY17. Four MFIs, with a GLP of INR181bn, have granular geographical distribution and are present in regions with low default expectations. Based on the geographical diversification and riskiness of the covered geographies, the current capital levels of nine MFIs may be inadequate to cover extreme portfolio stress, a requirement for higher rating levels.

Idiosyncratic Risk Keeps Spreads Commanded by MFIs Wider Compared With Similar-Rated NBFCs: The weighted average credit rating of MFIs improved to 'A-' in FY16 from 'BBB-' in FY14; however, the spreads commanded by similarly rated NBFCs over 10-year government securities are tighter than those commanded by MFIs. In Ind-Ra's assessment, the key reason for the non-convergence of spreads is the high idiosyncratic risk faced by MFIs due to the socio-political importance of their borrowers.

Credit Assessment and Operational Practices Need to be Tightened: The agency believes that interpretations of the two MFI lender norms, low correlation between borrower cycle and ticket size, among other practices, could result in adverse borrower selection. The key examples of operational lacunae are non-verification of Aadhaar, involvement of agents due to portfolio build-up pressure and prepayments leading to faster introduction of borrowers to higher ticket size.

JLG Loans to Remain Mainstay; Product Development Key to Growth: The microfinance portfolio of all MFIs stood at INR670bn in FY16 compared with INR227bn in FY11, with penetration (non-unique borrowers) increasing to 32.5m from 17.6m. The sector receives regulatory support and preference for financial inclusion (8 of the 10 SFBs approved were MFIs). Ind-Ra opines that MFIs are likely to play a pivotal role in providing the large informal income segment, with estimated credit demand of INR 10trn, access to formal financing, and this may, in turn, provide MFIs new avenues for future growth by designing new products for this segment.

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