Debt Markets at the Cusp of a New Horizon: The bond market is wedged between the improvement in domestic fundamentals and deterioration in the global environment. Ind-Ra believes that low inflation, marked improvement in the demand supply equation, expectations of further monetary easing will all keep the domestic bond market conditions constructive. Global developments, however, are likely to pose headwinds - resulting in an increase in the spread between the long end and the short end of the G-sec curve.
Liquidity Glut in the Market: The gush of bank deposits and restriction on withdrawal has led to a glut in the interbank liquidity market conditions. The situation is likely to continue for a while as the government endeavours to normalise conditions. Ind-Ra believes, volatility in the money market will continue in the near term, until normalcy is restore to banking operations. Ind-Ra also expects RBI to continue to sterilise the excessive liquidity through various modes, and explore other avenues apart from the reverse repos, if the easy liquidity conditions persist.
Headwinds to Rupee Continue: The increase in the probability of the Fed rate hike in the December 2016 policy - pushed up the dollar index to 101.2 from 97.5 through November 2016 and low of 92.6 in May 2016. The sharp strengthening of the dollar has been keeping emerging currencies under pressure. Ind-Ra believes this will keep the rupee trading with a weakening bias in the near term. Moreover, portfolio investment outflows from domestic bond markets and the weak equity market will deepen the pressure on the rupee.
Powered by Capital Market - Live News
Disclaimer: No Business Standard Journalist was involved in creation of this content