IMD forecasts below normal rainfall in India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the monsoon is likely to be below normal this year, . This has raised concerns of policymakers as it will impact crop and may raise inflation.

The IMD siad in a press release, "Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm."

One of the factors dragging monsoon rainfall this year is the development of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific ocean. "As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over Pacific and Indian Oceans particularly ENSO conditions over Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over Pacific and Indian oceans", stated the press release.

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