Goa produces largely low-grade iron ore, targeted for the Chinese market. Domestic steel players predominantly use a higher grade material (above 60 % ferrous content). About 80% of the Goan produce caters to export markets. Domestic sales are limited to steel players whose plants are closer to ports. Therefore, there will be no material impact on these steel players as Goan supplies form a small portion of their overall procurement.
Vedanta: Goa accounted for at least two-thirds of Vedanta's iron ore division's volumes in 9MFY18 and the company's production allocation for FY18 was 5.5mtpa for Goan mines and 2.3mtpa for Karnataka mines. However, the output in Karnataka has been of a higher grade than Goa's, hence the EBITDA impact may not be in proportion to the volume break-up between these two states. The mining limit in Karnataka may increase to 35mt from 30mt in the short term and the volume allocation to Vedanta could also increase. Ind-Ra expects the loss of cash flows from this division to be countered by higher-than-expected operational cash flows in the base metals and oil & gas divisions as against the agency's base case expectation for FY19. Vedanta's iron ore division posted an EBITDA of INR2.7 billion in 9MFY18 (9MFY17: INR9.35 billion) compared to overall consolidated EBITDA of INR175 billion (INR142 billion).
Other Miners: Pure iron ore exporters operating out of Goa may face headwinds even after re-acquiring the licenses, due to the global surplus of low-grade iron ore and China's environment policy favouring metal production through intermediate products or high grade ore. Steady steel margins may also favour medium-to-high grade ore consumption over low grade. Indian miners may have to look for other countries to export low-grade iron ore. The Indian government removed the export duty on iron ore fines Fe<58% and iron ore lumps Fe<58% from 10% and 30%, respectively, in the Union Budget of 2016.
The agency believes the additional capital outlay required for re-acquiring the mines may not be material, which is likely to be 0.5% of the 30% of the assessed value of the mineral and an equal amount of bank guarantee. However, the timelines for resumption of mining is difficult to assess as it depends on the auctioning process and fresh environmental approvals to be obtained. This may impact negatively the cash flows of pure iron ore players operating out of Goa. The incumbents may bid aggressively compared to new players, given the ownership of logistics and surface rights.
The ban has been imposed because of heightened concerns of NGOs on environmental issues. The contention of the court is that the renewals done during 2014 were unlawful as fresh mining permits should have issued in place of the renewals. Unlike most other states, the miners in Goa had to obtain a yearly consent for mining, which was given after assessing air and water pollution levels. MMDR Act, 2015 provides for auctioning of merchant mines upon completion of 50 years from the date of grant of license, expiry of lease, or 31 March 2020, whichever is earlier. However, for the renewals happened prior promulgation of MMDR Act 2015, the miners may not take refuge under its provisions.
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