Ind-Ra: Impact of Demonetisation Waning on Construction Equipment and Commercial Vehicle Loans, MFI Loans Remain Under Spell

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) analysed the performance of various asset classes under its rated portfolio as of the collection month of February 2017. Commercial vehicle loans registered a stable performance and were able to weather the impact of demonetisation. Construction equipment loans registered an improved performance, driven by an increase in infrastructure spending and a rise in mining activity. Tractor loans continued to show mixed signals, with higher stress in early delinquency buckets but lower forward roll rate indicating fewer loans moving into greater delinquency buckets relative to the historical trend. Microfinance institutions (MFI) loans witnessed a sharp rise in delinquencies after demonetisation and remained under stress. Moreover, MBS transactions continue to show a stable performance, supported by an adequate credit enhancement (CE) cover.

After demonetisation, Ind-Ra's Early Delinquency Index (EDI) for commercial vehicle (CV) loans increased by 153bp to 6.86% in February 2017 from the average for 1HFY17. However, the rise in weighted average (WA) 60+dpd delinquencies is extremely marginal in February 2017 compared with the average for 1HFY17, indicating fewer loans are moving into deeper buckets. 2016 vintage loans experienced slightly higher delinquencies compared with 2015 vintage loans. However, WA 90+dpd delinquencies remained at a low gradient compared with 2012-13 vintages. 2015 vintage outperformed previous vintages, with WA 90+dpd delinquencies falling to a new low of 1.25% in February 2017.

High frequency data on the underlying pools of construction equipment ABS indicates that the stress in the asset class is easing out. This is evident from a continual and significant drop observed in defaults, with WA 90+dpd delinquencies reducing 265bp in February 2017 from a high of 3.88% in November 2015. Also, the Ind-Ra Construction Equipment Gross Loss Index declined to 0.64% in February 2017 from 2.92% in February 2016.

The performance of tractor loans was mixed, considering short-term delinquencies rose and forward roll rate remained low in the last 12 months. 2016 vintage performed better across all vintages; WA 90+ delinquency for 2016 vintage loans stood at 3.26% in February 2017 (vintage with lowest delinquency at similar seasoning levels). However, farm loan waiver and pressure from the farming community may affect the credit discipline of borrowers.

Microfinance loans registered a sharp rise in delinquencies after demonetisation. Ind-Ra's 0+days delinquency index increased to 10.82% in February 2017 from 0.45% in October 2016. The rise in delinquencies is expected to have a limited impact on the ratings of significantly amortised transactions that are cushioned by a high CE cover. However, local issues such as political interventions and loan waivers would continue to remain key imponderables for recent vintage loans.

Ind-Ra-rated MBS transactions registered a stable performance on account of an upright pool performance and adequate CE. WA 90+dpd delinquencies hovered at about 0.5% in FY17.

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