Agriculture and industrial sector growth seen moderating in 2017-18
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the First Advance estimates of national income at constant (2011-12) and current prices, for the financial year 2017-18, forecasting the GDP growth at 6.5% for 2017-18 compared with the growth of 7.1% in 2016-17.The Real Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase 6.1% in 2017-18 as against 6.6% growth in 2016-17.
The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7.0% are, public administration, defence and other services, Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services and financial, real estate and professional services. The growth in the agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and construction is estimated to be 2.1%, 2.9%, 4.6% and3.6% respectively.
The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is likely to show a growth of 2.1% in its GVA during 2017-18, as against the previous year's growth rate of 4.9%. The production of food grains during the Kharif season of agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17.
The mining and quarrying sector is estimated to grow by 2.9% in 2017-18 as compared to growth of 1.8% in 2016-17. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas registered growth rates of 1.5%, (-) 0.2% and 3.7% respectively during April-November,2017-18. IIP of mining registered a growth rate of 3.4% in April-October 2017-18.
The manufacturing sector is estimated to grow by 4.6% as compared to growth of 7.9% in 2016-17. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over 70% in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies is 7.4% at current prices during 2017-18. The IIP manufacturing registered growth of 2.1%during April-October,2017-18. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), in respect of the manufactured products registered a growth of 2.6% during April-November 2017-18.
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The Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services sector is expected to grow by 7.5% as compared to growth of 7.2% in 2016-17. IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 5.3% during April-October, 2017-18.
The Construction sector is expected to grow by 3.6% as compared to growth of 1.7% in 2016-17. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 0.6% and 4.2% respectively during April-November 2017-18.
The trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting services is expected to grow 8.7% as against growth of 7.8% in the previous year. GVA from Trade sector is estimated using an index of turnover based on Sales tax. With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on sales tax has been estimated. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tone kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of 4.8% and 3.2% respectively during April-November 2017-18. Cargo handled at major sea ports registered growth of 3.5% in April-November 2017-18. Passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation increased by 15.1% and 18.2% respectively during April- November 2017-18. Sales of commercial vehicles registered growth of 10.6% during April-November 2017-18.
The estimated growth in GVA for financial, insurance, real estate and professional services sector during 2017-18 is placed at 7.3% as compared to growth of 5.7% in 2016-17. The key indicators of this sector are the growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which are estimated using latest available information on listed companies for the first half of financial year 2017-18. The combined growth in aggregate bank deposits and credits as on 10 November 2017 was 8.4%.
The GVA from public administration and defence and other services sector is expected to grow by 9.4% as compared to growth of 11.3% in 2016-17. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government expenditure net of interest payments and subsidies grew by 14.6% during April-November 2017-18.
The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of Rs 86660 as compared to Rs 82269 for the year 2016-17. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 5.3% during 2017-18, as against 5.7% in the previous year.
The GDP at current prices is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in the year 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of Rs 166.28 lakh crore, as against Rs 151.84 lakh crore in 2016-17 showing a growth rate of 9.5%.
The per capita net national income at current prices during 2017-18 is estimated to be Rs 111,782 showing a rise of 8.3% as compared to Rs 103,219 during 2016-17 with the growth rate of 9.7%.
The Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), in terms of GDP, at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2017-18 are estimated at 58.8% and 55.7%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.8% and 55.8%, respectively in 2016-17.
The Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE), in terms of GDP, at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2017-18 are estimated at 11.9% and 11.2%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.7% and 11.0%, respectively in 2016-17.
The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), in terms of GDP, are estimated at 26.4% and 29.0%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 27.1% and 29.5%, respectively in 2016-17. The GFCF is expected to register growth rate of 6.5% at current prices and 4.5% at constant prices.
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