India's Second Wave Of COVID-19 Stabilising

According the latest edition of SBI research update Ecowrap on 21st May 2021, India's second wave of COVID-19 has been stabilising for the past few days. The cumulative cases now stand at 257 lakh, with 31.25 active cases and 223 lakh people recovered. The 7D MA of new cases has been declining now for the past 11 days. Moreover, the daily recovered cases are now above the daily new cases for the past 12 days, thereby indicating that the peak of the second wave might be over. The maximum daily cases was 4.14 lakh crore observed on 7 May, with active cases 36.4 lakh (as predicted by us) and with a recovery rate 81.95% which is better than first peak recovery rate of 78.53%. Difference between the daily recovered and daily active cases has significantly improved in May when compared to April. Only 2 states, Chhattisgarh and Delhi are witnessing decline in May as against the previous month. The gap has improved for all other states, especially for Kerala, Rajasthan, UP and Gujarat. Meanwhile, localised restrictions and lockdowns have resulted in decline in mobility in May, particularly in case of Odisha, Kerala, Tamil Nadu.

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