India is set to be the second-fastest growing economy in the G20 in FY 2022-23, despite decelerating global demand and the tightening of monetary policy to manage inflationary pressures, according to OECD 's latest economic outlook. GDP growth will slow to 5.7% in FY 2023-24, as exports and domestic demand growth moderate. Inflation will crimp private consumption but moderate at the end of the projection period, helping, along with improved global conditions, to boost growth to 6.9% in FY 2024-25, in line with the 20-year average (excluding the COVID-19 recession). After a spike in 2022, the current account deficit will narrow as import price pressures abate.
After hitting 6.6% in FY 2022-23, GDP growth is expected to slow in coming quarters, to 5.7% in FY 2023-24, before reverting to around 7% in FY 2024-25, OECD said. CPI inflation will remain above the central bank's upper limit target of 6% at least until early 2023 and then gradually recede as higher interest rates take effect, the report stated. In line with the central bank's commitment to take calibrated action to bring headline inflation back within the 2-6% tolerance band and keep inflation expectations anchored, policy rates are expected to rise by 75bps, to reach 6.65% in February 2023 before the tightening cycle is paused, OECD further noted.
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