Volatility continued as key benchmark indices regained positive once again after reversing intraday gains in morning trade. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was up 11.95 points or 0.05%, up close to 40 points from the day's low and off close to 35 points from the day's high. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was positive.
Shares of public sector oil marketing companies fell as the price of petrol was on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, cut by Rs 0.70 a litre, excluding local levies. Infosys declined after the company's American depositary receipt (ADR) dropped on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, after the company announced its Q4 March 2014 results and issued guidance for the year ending 31 March 2015 (FY 2015). Shares of fast moving electrical goods maker Havells India scaled record high.
A bout of initial volatility was witnessed as key benchmark indices regained positive terrain after slipping into the red for a brief period after opening slightly higher. Volatility continued as key benchmark indices regained positive once again after reversing intraday gains in morning trade.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 21.63 crore on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges.
At 10:20 IST, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 11.95 points or 0.05% to 22,496.92. The index rose 48.69 points at the day's high of 22,533.61 in early trade. The index declined 26.41 points at the day's low of 22,458.52 in early trade.
The CNX Nifty was up 5.85 points or 0.09% to 6,738.95. The index hit a high of 6,748.65 in intraday trade. The index hit a low of 6,724.65 in intraday trade.
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The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 23.90 points or 0.33% at 7,335.89. The BSE Small-Cap index was up 36.02 points or 0.48% at 7,537.52. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was positive. On BSE, 1,020 shares gained and 739 shares fell. A total of 84 shares were unchanged.
Hindalco Industries (up 2.2%), Tata Steel (up 1.63%) and Sesa Sterlite (up 1.48%) edged higher from the Sensex pack.
Shares of public sector oil marketing companies fell as the price of petrol was on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, cut by Rs 0.70 a litre, excluding local levies. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) (down 0.55%), BPCL (down 1.17%) and HPCL (down 1.36%), edged lower.
The price of petrol was cut by Rs 0.70 a litre, excluding local levies, the second reduction in rates this month as appreciation of the rupee against the US dollar made oil imports cheaper. With the late price revision, retail selling price at Delhi had declined by Rs 0.85 a litre, IOC said. There was no change in diesel prices.
Public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) suffer under-recovery on domestic sales of diesel, kerosene and LPG at government controlled prices. In January 2013, the government allowed PSU OMCs to raise diesel prices in small measures at regular intervals. The government has already freed pricing of petrol.
PSU OMCs are currently suffering under-recovery of Rs 5.49 a litre on high speed diesel (HSD) (retail), Rs 34.43 a litre on superior kerosene oil (SKO) (public distribution system) and Rs 505.50 cylinder on LPG (domestic), IOC said in a statement.
The movement of prices in the international oil market and INR-USD exchange rate are continuously under watch and developing trends reflected in future price changes, IOC added.
Infosys declined after the company's American depositary receipt (ADR) dropped on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, after the company announced its Q4 March 2014 results and issued guidance for the year ending 31 March 2015 (FY 2015). The stock was off 2.59%. The company's ADR fell 4.68% to settle at $52.98 on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday, 15 April 2014.
Infosys before trading hours in India on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, said its consolidated net profit rose 4.1% to Rs 2992 crore on 1.2% decline in revenue to Rs 12875 crore in Q4 March 2014 over Q3 December 2013. Infosys' non-operational income jumped 16.4% to Rs 851 crore in Q4 March 2014 over Q3 December 2013. The results are as per International Financial Reporting Standards.
Infosys has forecast revenue growth of 7% to 9% in dollar terms for the year ending 31 March 2015 (FY 2015). The company has forecast revenue growth of 5.6% to 7.6% in rupee terms for FY 2015. The guidance in rupee terms is based on rupee dollar conversion rate of 60.
Havells India rose 1.69% to Rs 945.80 after hitting record high of Rs 952.90 in intraday trade.
In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar on concern accelerating inflation will erode returns on the nation's assets. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 60.255, compared with its close of 60.23/24 on Tuesday, 15 April 2014.
Private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, said it expects the June-September monsoon to be below normal this year. It has forecast the monsoon at 94% (error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 896 mm for the four-month period from June to September 2014. In terms of geographical risk, Skymet suggests that peninsular India will be at less risk through June, July, August and September (JJAS). There seems to be weakness in majority subdivisions in Northwest India viz. Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana and in West-Central India viz. East MP, West MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharshtra, Konkan & Goa, North Interior Karnataka and Telangana during the whole season, Skymet said in a statement. August is expected to be the best month among the four, although negative. It appears that onset of the monsoon may be staggered this time, Skymet said.
Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet said: "This weakness in monsoon could possibly be attributed to an evolving ENSO". The ENSO is a phenomenon wherein the Central and East Pacific ocean warms (El Ni) or cools (La Ni), in turn affecting the monsoon. El Ni is evolving as of now, but is expected to get arrested, Skymet said. There is only a 30% chance of this phenomenon getting stronger, it said. If this El Ni was amplifying, then there would be a stronger chance of drought, like in 2009, Skymet said. This does not seem to be the case at this point in time, it said. There is no clear signal about the emergence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year during monsoon, Skymet said.
According to Skymet, rains in June are expected at 90% of LPA (LPA = 174 mm). In July, the monsoon is expected at 94% of LPA (LPA = 285 mm). Rains in August are expected at 98% of LPA (LPA = 253 mm). Rains in September are expected at 90% of LPA (LPA = 184 mm).
The rate on inflation based all India general consumer price index (CPI) combined for urban and rural India accelerated to 8.31% (provisional) in March 2014, from 8.03% (final) in February 2014, led by increase in food prices, data released by the government after trading hours on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, showed. Core CPI inflation which excludes food and fuel prices eased to 7.82% in March 2014, from 7.84% in February 2014.
CPI inflation eased to 9.5% for the year ended 31 March 2014 (FY 2014), from 10.2% for the year ended 31 March 2013 (FY 2013).
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) next undertakes monetary policy review on 3 June 2014. The RBI left its main lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 8% after a monetary policy review on 1 April 2014, as consumer-price inflation eased to a two-year low and as the rupee firmed up against the dollar.
A major near term trigger for the stock market is the outcome of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The 36 days long voting process began on 7 April 2014 and will conclude on 12 May 2014. The results will be declared on 16 May 2014 after which India will get a new government. The term of the current Lok Sabha expires on 1 June and the new House has to be constituted by 31 May.
Asian stocks edged higher on Wednesday, 16 April 2014, as China reported data on economic growth for the January-to-March period which was better than estimated. Key benchmark indices in South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Indonesia and Taiwan were up 0.06% to 2.5%.
In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.26% in choppy trade. China's expansion slowed to the weakest pace in six quarters, testing leaders' commitment to keep reining in a credit boom and pollution as risks mount of missing a 7.5% annual growth target. However, the growth was slightly higher than market expectations. Gross domestic product rose 7.4% in the January-to-March period from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing.
Fixed-asset investment in non-rural areas of China rose 17.6% in the January-March period compared with the same period a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The rise in the closely watched indicator of construction activity was slower than the 17.9% increase recorded in the January-February period.
Retail sales in China rose 12.2% in March from a year earlier, accelerating from a 11.8% on-year rise for January and February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Retail sales also increased 1.23% in March from February. In February, they rose 0.71%.
Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could advance 60 points at the opening bell on Wednesday, 16 April 2014. US stocks rose in choppy trade on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, as earnings from Coca-Cola Co. and Johnson & Johnson overshadowed concerns that tensions in Ukraine are worsening.
The latest US economic data showed manufacturing in the New York region grew at a slower pace in April while the cost of living in the US rose more than projected in March as food and rents became more expensive. Confidence among US homebuilders rose less than forecast in April, as sales and prospective buyer traffic stagnated, showing the residential real estate market struggled to improve after a harsh winter.
The US Federal Reserve is considering further steps to force big banks to hold more capital, and sees a case for other stability-enhancing measures for more shadowy areas of Wall Street as well, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday. The Fed has been pushing banks to strengthen their balance sheets since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, and last week joined other regulators in requiring the eight largest US banks to increase their capital levels by some $68 billion in total.
She cited a 2010 study by the Basel Committee, an international standard-setting body, that suggested tighter standards would provide economic benefits.
The United States is in the process of implementing new international capital and liquidity standards known as Basel III, which will be phased in between 2015 and early 2019. The rules are meant to help banks weather short-term funding crises.
Yellen said the US central bank's staff was "actively considering" whether even more needed to be done to address risks in the so-called short-term wholesale funding market, which is a significant source of funding for firms.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next undertakes monetary policy review at a two-day meeting on 29-30 April 2014. The Federal Reserve on 19 March 2014 decided after the conclusion of a monetary policy review to trim its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion.
Meanwhile, Ukraine unleashed an offensive to dislodge militants from towns in its eastern Donetsk region as the authorities in Kiev said elements of Russian special forces were identified among the anti-government forces. Russia's prime minister said the country risks civil war.
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