A bout of volatility was witnessed as the two key benchmark indices regained positive zone after reversing intraday gains in mid-afternoon trade. At 14:15 IST, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 20.97 points or 0.08% at 26,864.11. The Nifty 50 index was currently up 10.05 points or 0.12% at 8,229. The Sensex was currently trading below the psychologically important 27,000 level. It had briefly surpassed that level in early trade.
The Sensex fell 26.42 points or 0.09% at the day's low of 26,816.72 in mid-afternoon trade. The barometer index rose 165 points or 0.61% at the day's high of 27,008.14 in early trade, its highest level since 29 October 2015. The Nifty lost 5.30 points or 0.06% at the day's low of 8,213.65 in mid-afternoon trade. The index rose 43.05 points or 0.52% at the day's high of 8,262 in early trade, its highest level since 26 October 2015.
The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market turned negative from positive in mid-afternoon trade. On BSE, 1,121 shares rose and 1,381 shares declined. A total of 160 shares were unchanged. The BSE Mid-Cap index was currently off 0.02%. The BSE Small-Cap index was currently down 0.17%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
In overseas stock markets, Asian and European stocks edged higher after data overnight showed US private-sector employment gains accelerated in May 2016 and another data showed filings for unemployment benefits in the US declined for a third consecutive week. The US economy is the world's biggest economy. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) left key interest rates unchanged after a monetary policy review yesterday, 2 June 2016, in line with investors' expectations. ECB President Mario Draghi said that the central bank remains ready to use all the tools within its mandate to make sure that the low-inflation environment doesn't become entrenched. Draghi said that the central bank could push interest rates further into negative territory if needed.
Chinese stocks shrugged off data showing slowdown in growth in China's services sector last month. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite index settled 0.46% higher. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index closed 0.42% higher. The Caixin China services purchasing managers index (PMI) eased to a three-month low of 51.2 in May from 51.8 in April.
US stocks registered modest gains yesterday, 2 June 2016, on signs of steady job gains in the world's biggest economy. Private-sector employment gains accelerated slightly in May 2016, according to data from Automatic Data Processing Inc. Employers added 173,000 jobs during the month. The private sector employment data comes ahead of the influential US government's nonfarms payroll data. The US government will unveil the monthly job data for May 2016 later in the global day. The nonfarms payroll data could provide cues on the timing and pace of further interest rates increases from the US Federal Reserve. The job data has implications for the US monetary policy. The US central bank's mandate centers on maximizing employment and keeping inflation at a 2% target level. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next undertakes monetary policy review at a two-day meeting on 14-15 June 2016. The Fed has kept the benchmark fed funds rate unchanged after raising it for the first time in nearly a decade in December 2015.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans today, 3 June 2016, said in prepared remarks at the Global Interdependence Center in London that the Federal Reserve should avoid aggressive tightening of US interest rates if it doesn't want to upset the so-far-so-good economic apple cart. Evans said it may be appropriate to have two 25 basis point moves between now and the end of the year.
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Stocks of public sector banks edged lower. Andhra Bank (down 1.12%), Bank of Baroda (down 0.53%), Bank of India (down 2.02%), Canara Bank (down 3.3%), Union Bank of India (down 2.49%), IDBI Bank (down 2.54%) and Punjab National Bank (down 1.29%) declined. Indian Overseas Bank (up 0.58%) and Vijaya Bank (up 0.17%) edged higher.
State Bank of India was off 1.6% as the stock turned ex-dividend today, 3 June 2016, for dividend of Rs 2.60 per share for the year ended 31 March 2016.
Stocks of private sector banks rose. Axis Bank (up 3.15%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 2.74%), ICICI Bank (up 1.06%) and IndusInd Bank (up 0.52%) edged higher. HDFC Bank (down 0.19%) and Yes Bank (down 0.39%) edged lower.
Metal and mining stocks were mostly lower. Jindal Steel & Power (down 2.15%), Steel Authority of India (down 1.9%), JSW Steel (down 0.93%), Vedanta (down 1.17%), Hindalco Industries (down 0.71%) and Tata Steel (down 0.78%) edged lower. Hindustan Copper (up 1.4%), Hindustan Zinc (up 0.65%) and National Aluminium Company (up 0.12%) edged higher.
Copper edged higher in the global commodities markets. High Grade Copper for July 2016 delivery was currently up 1.28% at $2.0965 per pound on the COMEX.
NMDC rose 3.99% at Rs 89.90 after the company scheduled a board meeting on 7 June 2016 to consider a proposal for buyback of equity shares. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 2 June 2016.
MOIL surged 5.75% at Rs 234.30 after the company scheduled a board meeting on 7 June 2016 to consider the proposal for buyback of equity shares. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 2 June 2016.
Meanwhile, the outcome of monthly survey showed that the rate of growth in India's services sector eased last month as new business inflows expanded at the slowest rate since July 2015. The Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51 in May 2016 from 53.7 in April 2016. Output rose in three of the six tracked categories, namely Transport & Storage, Post & Telecommunication and Financial Intermediation. Although some service providers took on additional staff in May 2016, the overall pace of job creation was fractional. Input costs rose again, leading to a further increase in prices charged by service providers. Although service providers remained optimistic that output will expand in the year ahead, the level of confidence was the lowest recorded since February 2016.
Meanwhile, India's weather office India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its second stage forecast stuck to its preliminary forecast of above normal rains for the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June to September). Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus/minus 4%. In its first stage forecast issued on 12 April 2016, the IMD had forecast rainfall to be 106% of the LPA with a model error of plus/minus 5%.
In its region wise forecast, the IMD said that the rainfall is likely to be 108% of LPA in North-West India, 113% of LPA in Central India, 113% of LPA in South Peninsula and 94% of LPA in North-East India, all with a model error of plus/minus 8%. The rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 107% of its LPA during July 2016 and 104% of LPA during August 2016 both with a model error of plus/minus 9%. The quantum of the rainfall and its spatial and temporal distribution are critical for the country's agriculture.
The IMD said that the rapidly declining El Nino conditions became weak in early May 2016 and now have turned to neutral ENSO conditions. Recent changes in the atmospheric conditions over the Pacific also reflect the weakening El Nino conditions. Latest forecast from IMD-IITM coupled model indicates about 50% probability of La Nina conditions to establish during the monsoon season. Most of the other models also suggest development of La Nina conditions during the latter part of the monsoon season. El Nino conditions cause deficient rains in India whereas La Nina conditions trigger abundant rains in the country.
IMD also said on 2 June 2016 that the conditions are becoming favorable for onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during next 4-5 days. The arrival of the rains at the Kerala coast marks the onset of the June-September southwest monsoon season in India. The IMD on 15 May 2016 predicted a delay of 6 days for the onset of the monsoon rains in Kerala this year from the normal onset date which is 1 June.
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