The market may open higher on firm Asian stocks. Trading of S&P CNX Nifty futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicates a gain of 13 points at the opening bell. Asian shares rose on Thursday, 9 August 2012, as cooling Chinese consumer price data kept hopes for more monetary easing intact.
Closer home, the government will release industrial production data for June 2012 at 11:00 IST today, 9 August 2012. Industrial production is seen rising just 1% in June 2012, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. Industrial production grew 2.4% in May 2012. Industrial production had declined 0.9% in April 2012.
Steel Authority of India (Sail) turns ex-dividend today, 9 August 2012, for final dividend of 80 paise per share for the year ended 31 March 2012.
Sun TV Network turns ex-dividend today, 9 August 2012, for interim dividend of Rs 2.50 per share for the year ending 31 March 203 (FY 2013).
Tata Motors and Ranbaxy Laboratories unveil quarterly results today, 9 August 2012.
Cairn India on Thursday, 8 August 2012, announced that Mr. Rahul Dhir has decided to step down as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the company with effect from 31 August, 2012 to pursue his entrepreneurial interests. The search for Mr. Dhir's successor is underway and an announcement is expected soon, Cairn India said in a statement. During this intervening period, the board has appointed Mr. P. Elango, Director - Strategy and Business Services and a member of Cairn India's Executive Committee, as the Interim CEO. Mr. Elango, an experienced oil & gas veteran has been with Cairn for over 15 years and has worked competently alongside Mr. Dhir for the past six years.
On the eve of this announcement, Mr Dhir said, "It's been a privilege to be part of Cairn India's remarkable growth story over the past six years. We have achieved all major milestones set out at the time of the IPO. With the completion of Vedanta's acquisition, Cairn India's exceptional organization and unique asset base are well placed to continue to deliver sustainable growth and value for our Nation and all our stakeholders. This is the right transition point for me to pursue my entrepreneurial interests. I take this opportunity to thank all my colleagues at Cairn India, and our Board for their contribution and support in creating this amazing company".
Mr. Navin Agarwal, Chairman of Cairn India, said: "The success of Cairn India, under Rahul's leadership has been achieved through building a globally competitive team, ensuring a strong focus on disciplined execution, sustaining low cost and safe operations and innovative application of technology. These strategic pillars will continue to remain core to Cairn India's operating philosophy as it enters the next phase of its growth. We thank Rahul for his valuable contribution and wish him success in his future endeavours. Cairn India is well poised to continue its focus on exploration, and on augmenting our current production from Rajasthan and focus on growth in India and beyond".
Tata Power Company's consolidated net profit fell 66.09% to Rs 145.93 crore on 25% growth in revenue to Rs 7253.89 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011. Tata Power said the sharp fall in net profit was mainly due to lower profit in coal business owing to lower price realization and higher cost of production, higher interest and depreciation cost due to commissioning of Mundra and Maithon power generation units and reversal of revenues due to change in effective date of MYT regulations in Mumbai.
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On standalone basis, Tata Power's net profit rose 11% to Rs 312.30 crore on 19% growth in revenue to Rs. 2284.10 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011.
Commenting on the first quarter results, Mr. Anil Sardana, Managing Director, Tata Power said: "During first quarter of FY 2013, the company reported revenue growth of about 20% and profit growth of about 10% which is highly satisfying. All our projects and subsidiaries by and large have performed well. Tata Power's generation capacity crossed 6,000 MW with commissioning of 800 MW unit 2 of the Mundra UMPP, reinforcing our position as the largest integrated power company in India. The company crossed 11,000 MWh of generation units at Mithapur Solar plant which is a significant milestone that demonstrates efficiency and state of art technology used at the plant. Our coal companies posted lower realization due to global economic slowdown and falling coal prices. By signing the coal supply agreement with PT Antang Gunung Meratus, we have taken proactive steps to ensure imported coal supply for our upcoming power projects to be developed for next 5 years."
Power Finance Corporation's net profit rose 41.63% to Rs 971.88 crore on 34.9% growth in total income to Rs 3944.86 crore in Q1 June 2012 over Q1 June 2011.
Key benchmark indices cut almost the entire intraday gains and provisionally settled almost unchanged for the day on Wednesday, 8 August 2012, as weakness in European stocks hurt investor sentiment adversely. The BSE Sensex shed 1.22 points or 0.01% to settle at 17,600.56 on that day, its lowest closing level since 6 August 2012.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 1114.20 crore on Wednesday, 8 August 2012, as per provisional figures on the stock exchanges. Earlier, FIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 2228.70 crore from the secondary equity markets in five trading sessions from 1 to 7 August 2012 as per data from Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi). The inflow this month comes on the top of substantial purchases last month. FIIs bought shares worth net Rs 9691 crore from the secondary equity markets in July 2012.
Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram early this week said that a path of financial consolidation will be unveiled shortly. He made it clear that the burden of fiscal correction must be shared fairly and equitably by different classes of stakeholders. The Finance Minister said that the poor must be protected and others must bear their fair share of the burden. Obviously, adjustments must be made both on the revenue side and on the expenditure side, he said. The Finance Minister said the government has asked Dr. Vijay Kelkar, Dr. Indira Rajaraman and Dr. Sanjiv Misra to assist the government in formulating the path of fiscal consolidation and said he expects the work will be completed in a few weeks.
Government finances are under pressure as expenses exceed revenue, mainly because of subsidies doled out for cheaper supplies of food, fuel and fertilizer. The subsidy expense was 2.4% of GDP in the last fiscal year. The government aims to bring it down to 2% of GDP this year, and reduce fiscal deficit to 5.1% from 5.75%. The oil ministry has already sought Rs 32800 crore in cash subsidy from the finance ministry to compensate retailers who sell diesel and cooking fuel at government-set discounted rates.
Mr. Chidambaram said that price stability is an important objective and that the government will work with the Reserve Bank of India to ensure that inflation is moderated in the medium term. Sometimes it is necessary to take carefully calibrated risks in order to stimulate investment and to ease the burden on consumers, Mr. Chidambaram said adding that the government will take appropriate steps in this regard.
The key to restart the growth engine is to attract more investment, both from domestic investors and foreign investors, Mr. Chidambaram said. "Since investment is an act of faith, we must remove any apprehension or distrust in the minds of investors. We will improve communication of our policies to potential investors", Mr. Chidambaram said. The aim will be to remove the perceived difficulties in doing business in India, including fears about undue regulatory burden or regulatory over-reach. Public sector enterprises which have large cash balances will be encouraged to restart investment. Proposals pending with the Foreign Investment Promotion Board will be processed and decisions taken expeditiously, Mr. Chidambaram said.
The government intends to work with manufacturers and exporters and implement appropriate short term and medium term measures to reverse the trend of sluggish growth in manufacturing and exports which are two key drivers of the economy, Mr. Chidambaram said. The government intends to find practical solutions to the problems that impede higher production or output in the coal, mining, petroleum, power, road transport, railway and port sectors. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs will examine the issues affecting each sector and take decisions that will lead to quantitative growth in these sectors, Mr. Chidambaram said.
The government aims to raise the level of investment to 38% of the GDP that was achieved in 2007-08, Mr. Chidambaram said. The Finance Minister said that Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and other schemes will be converged to meet the challenge of drought.
The government intends to fine tune policies and procedures that will facilitate capital flows into India, Mr. Chidambaram said. Clarity in tax laws, a stable tax regime, a non-adversarial tax administration, a fair mechanism for dispute resolution, and an independent judiciary will provide great assurance to investors, Mr. Chidambaram said. The government has recently appointed two committees -- one to examine anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) legal provisions and guidelines and the other to review taxation of the IT sector and Development Centres. Mr. Chidambaram said he has also directed a review of tax provisions that have a retrospective effect in order to find fair and reasonable solutions to pending as well as likely disputes between the Tax Departments and the Assessees concerned.
In the next few weeks, the government will announce a number of decisions to attract more people to invest in mutual funds, insurance policies and other well-designed instruments, Mr. Chidambaram said.
Mr. Chidambaram on Wednesday, 8 August 2012, said that the government has received requests to put off plans to implement the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) which aim to check tax avoidance. The implementation of GAAR was postponed by one year in order to provide an opportunity of wider consultation before such a legislation is implemented, Mr. Chidambaram said in the lower house of parliament while replying to lawmakers' questions. The provisions of GAAR are directed toward preventing tax avoidance by way of aggressive tax planning, he added.
The implementation of GAAR proposal introduced in the Union Budget 2012-13 in March 2012 by then-finance minister Pranab Mukherjee has been deferred to 1 April 2013. This came after heavy criticism from foreign investors who fear that GAAR would give the authorities arbitrary powers to examine any deal that they feel is designed to avoid tax. Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh last month constituted an expert committee on anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) to undertake stakeholder consultations and finalise the guidelines for GAAR by 30 September 2012.
Dr. Singh last month also decided to refer the issue of implications on FIIs and portfolio investors of the amendment made to the Income Tax Act relating to the taxation of non-resident transfer of assets where the underlying asset is in India to the Expert Committee on anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR). "It is necessary to have clarity on the tax liability of portfolio investors and foreign institutional investors as a result of this amendment particularly when the investment is made through a registered stock exchange in accordance with SEBI guidelines and purely in the form of portfolio investment", the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) said in a statement issued on 30 July 2012. Any clarification needs to be harmonised with the GAAR guidelines and will have to address any residual concerns outside of GAAR, the PMO said.
On the macro front, inflation based on the monthly wholesale price index (WPI) is seen inching up to 7.4% in July 2012 from 7.25% (provisional) for the month of June 2012, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. The data is due for release at 11:30 IST on 14 August 2012.
Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Wednesday, 8 August 2012, said that it will be difficult to achieve a 9% annual growth target set for the five years to March 31, 2017. He added that the Planning Commission would cut the target later this year.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) last week said the El Nino weather pattern is likely to reduce rains again in the second half of the June to September monsoon season. The IMD said rains over the entire June to September season are now expected to be less than 90% of long-term average. This is lower than IMD's previous forecast of 96%. Monsoon rains are considered deficient -- a drought in layman's terms -- if they fall below 90% of a 50-year average. Between June 1 and August 1, rainfall was about 19% below normal. The IMD expects normal rains in August -- a critical month for summer crops. It expects rainfall to be 5-6% below average in September due to the possibility of El Nino. The weather office said rainfall during August-September is expected to be 91% of the long-term average.
The rainfall distribution has been erratic this year as major crop- growing regions such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana have received scanty showers threatening the prospects of summer crops. A panel of Indian ministers last week approved steps to contain the impact of a near-drought situation. The steps include providing a diesel-price subsidy to farmers, increasing the subsidy on seed supplies and removal of the import tax on oilmeals.
Insufficient rainfall could lead to higher food inflation. There will be an impact on foodgrain output, but it is too early to give any estimate, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar last week. Mr. Pawar said the government will raise subsidies for the supply of various seeds for alternate crops in affected areas.
The monsoon rains--which make up around 70% of India's annual rainfall--are crucial to the nation's agriculture sector and broader economy. More than 60% of the country's farmland is rain-fed. The timing, distribution and quantity of rainfall are all important for crops. The four-month southwest monsoon season that starts from June accounts for almost 70% of total annual moisture that Indian soil receives in a year. A bad monsoon will have a larger impact on inflation than on growth as agriculture output constitutes a relatively small portion of India's economy, Indian central bank officials said on 1 August 2012, in a conference call following the release of its monetary policy review on 31 July 2012. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 8% after first quarter review of Monetary Policy 2012-13 in an effort to keep a lid on inflation and inflation expectations. The RBI, however, lowered banks' statutory liquidity ratio, or the part of deposits that must be invested mainly in government bonds, by a percentage point to 23% to ensure that liquidity pressures do not constrain the flow of credit to productive sectors of the economy.
Principal adviser to the Planning Commission Pronab Sen last month said slowing investment due to weak confidence in the economy is hurting growth. Mr. Sen said Indian companies aren't facing any shortage of funds. Many of them are sitting on piles of cash and aren't even repatriating overseas borrowings, he added.
The government should take steps to meet the fiscal deficit target set out in the budget and that would improve sentiment and revive investments, Mr. Sen said. He said the government should scale back its spending and slash subsidies on fuels, food and fertilizers to help check its budget deficit.
Slowing growth in investment remains a cause for concern for India. Investment makes up 35% of India's economic activity.
A comprehensive Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill is among the 31 Bills the government has lined up for consideration and passing during the monsoon session of Parliament, which began Wednesday, 8 August 2012. Among the other bills include those on Forward Contracts, Banking laws, whistle-blowers and women's reservation as also the Prevention of Bribery of Foreign Public Officials bill. The monsoon session of Parliament will conclude on September 7.
An India-Mauritius joint panel will discuss a series of proposals to review the double taxation avoidance treaty between the two nations on 22-24 August in Mauritius. India has been looking to negotiate the double taxation avoidance agreement with Mauritius for the past few years to check so-called round tripping and other potential abuses. Round tripping entails moving money out of one country to another, and getting it back under the garb of foreign capital. Capital gains tax is close to zero in Mauritius and almost 40% of investments into India come through the island nation. Under the bilateral agreement, capital gains from sale of securities can be taxed only in Mauritius. The India-Mauritius joint working group will also discuss the inclusion of a so-called limitation of benefit clause, similar to the Singapore tax treaty with India, to ensure only genuine Mauritius-based companies are benefited. India's tax agreement with Singapore says that only those companies that spend a minimum of $200,000 (about Rs 1 crore) in Singapore can avail the benefits of the treaty.
Sanctity of tax residency certificates issued by a country to companies operating in its jurisdiction to enable the firms to claim tax benefits under various treaties is another issue between India and Mauritius. While India in this year's national budget said the certificates are a necessary but not sufficient condition, Mauritius wants those issued by it honoured. Draft guidelines issued by Indian government for implementing the controversial anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the GAAR state that GAAR provisions should be invoked on a foreign institutional investor (FII), if it chooses to take a treaty benefit, but would not in any case be invoked in the case of the non-resident investors of the FII. The draft guidelines suggested that the onus of proving wrongdoing should be on the authorities.
Some major Indian firms will announcing their first quarter results over the next few days. State Bank of India, Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries, Siemens and BPCL announce quarterly results on tomorrow, 10 August 2012. ONGC announces Q1 results on Saturday, 11 August 2012. Tata Steel and Coal India unveil Q1 results on 13 August 2012. Hindalco Industries, Reliance Infrastructure and IDFC will unveil Q1 results on 14 August 2012.
Asian shares traded mostly higher on Thursday as cooling Chinese consumer price data kept hopes for more monetary easing intact. Key benchmark indices in Indonesia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea rose by between 0.34% to 1.23%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.41%. Singapore's stock market was closed for a holiday today.
Kicking off a busy day for Chinese data, inflation data showed consumer prices increased 1.8% from the year-ago period, just ahead of forecasts for a 1.7% increase, but slowing from the 2.2% increase recorded in June. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics Thursday also showed a drop in producer prices.
The Bank of Japan isn't expected to change interest rates from ultra-low levels Thursday, but there has been some speculation that it may act to defend it's 1% inflation goal.
The Bank of Korea, meanwhile, left its key policy interest rate at 3.0% on Thursday, after a surprise cut last month its first in more than three years.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'AA-' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term unsolicited issuer credit ratings on Taiwan. The outlook is stable. The transfer and convertibility assessment remains 'AA+'. At the same time, it affirmed the 'cnAAA/cnA-1+' Greater China scale ratings on Taiwan. Taiwan's extremely strong external position, sound monetary management, and dynamic information technology (IT) companies in the private sector support the ratings. Tempering these strengths are a moderately high government debt and a small, open economy that is vulnerable to global economic conditions.
Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate totaled 5.2% in July, down from 5.3% in June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. The number of employed increased 14,000 to 11.5 million while the number of unemployed decreased 2,500 to 635,100. The labor force participation rate reached 65.2%, from 65.3% seasonally-adjusted in June.
US stocks dipped on Wednesday following three days of gains on Wall Street as traders awaited more signals about central bank action in support of a stalling global economy.
Election for a new president in the United States, the world's biggest economy, is scheduled on 6 November 2012.
Germany's Federal Constitutional Court will announce a decision on lawsuits challenging the country's participation in the permanent euro-zone rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, and the fiscal pact on 12 September 2012. The court held a public hearing earlier this month to examine complaints that participation in the fund and the fiscal pact violated German law by taking some authority over the national budget away from parliament.
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