The market may extend recent gains on firm Asian stocks. Trading of S&P CNX Nifty futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicates a gain of 29 points at the opening bell. Asian stocks rose for a third day on Wednesday as speculation that central banks will take steps to spur growth and better-than-forecast U.S. corporate earnings boosted the outlook for the economy.
Among corporate news, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Power and Bharti Airtel unveil Q1 results today, 8 August 2012.
PSU OMCs, oil exploration firms and airline stocks will be in focus as crude oil prices for September delivery jumped to a 12-week peak on Tuesday as falling North Sea output, support for more bond buying by the US Federal Reserve and Middle East tensions lifted crude futures to a third straight higher settlement.
Higher crude oil prices could increase under-recoveries of state-run oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) on domestic sale of diesel, LPG and kerosene at controlled prices. The government has already freed pricing of petrol. Higher crude oil prices will result in higher realizations from crude sales for oil exploration firms. Aviation turbine fuel, or jet fuel constitutes more than 50% of operating cost for airliners. Prices of jet fuel are directly linked to crude oil prices. State-run oil marketing companies--Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation revise jet fuel prices on the 1st and 16th of every month based on the average international crude price in the preceding fortnight.
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories announced that it has launched Montelukast Sodium Tablets (10 mg) and Montelukast Sodium Chewable Tablets (4 mg & 5 mg), bioequivalent generic versions of SINGULAIR tablets and Chewable tablets, in the US market on August 06, 2012 following the approval by the United States Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) of Dr. Reddy's ANDA.
Power Grid Corporation of India said that the board of directors of the company at its meeting held on August 06, 2012 have approved investment proposal of expansion and replacement of existing SCADA/EMS system at SLDCs of Northern Region (NR ULDC Phase-ll)' at an estimated cost of Rs 70.90 crore with commissioning schedule of 27 months from the date of investment approval. It also approved proposal of installation of reactors in Western Region at an estimated cost of Rs 83.17 crore with commissioning schedule of 24 months from the date of investment approval.
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Key benchmark indices edged higher for the second straight day on Tuesday, 7 August 2012 after Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday, 6 August 2012, said he intends to shortly unveil a path of fiscal consolidation. The BSE Sensex jumped 188.82 points or 1.08% to settle at 17,601.78 on that day, its highest closing level since 10 July 2012.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 815.94 crore on Tuesday, 7 August 2012, as per provisional figures on the stock exchanges. FIIs bought shares worth Rs 564.70 crore from secondary equity markets on Monday, 6 August 2012, as per data from Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi). FIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 1364.50 crore from the secondary equity markets in four trading sessions from 1 to 6 August 2012. The inflow this month comes on the top of substantial purchases last month. FIIs bought shares worth net Rs 9691 crore from the secondary equity markets in July 2012.
Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Monday, 6 August 2012, said that a path of financial consolidation will be unveiled shortly. He made it clear that the burden of fiscal correction must be shared fairly and equitably by different classes of stakeholders. The Finance Minister said that the poor must be protected and others must bear their fair share of the burden. Obviously, adjustments must be made both on the revenue side and on the expenditure side, he said. The Finance Minister said the government has asked Dr. Vijay Kelkar, Dr. Indira Rajaraman and Dr. Sanjiv Misra to assist the government in formulating the path of fiscal consolidation and said he expects the work will be completed in a few weeks.
Government finances are under pressure as expenses exceed revenue, mainly because of subsidies doled out for cheaper supplies of food, fuel and fertilizer. The subsidy expense was 2.4% of GDP in the last fiscal year. The government aims to bring it down to 2% of GDP this year, and reduce fiscal deficit to 5.1% from 5.75%. The oil ministry has already sought Rs 32800 crore in cash subsidy from the finance ministry to compensate retailers who sell diesel and cooking fuel at government-set discounted rates.
Mr. Chidambaram said that price stability is an important objective and that the government will work with the Reserve Bank of India to ensure that inflation is moderated in the medium term. Sometimes it is necessary to take carefully calibrated risks in order to stimulate investment and to ease the burden on consumers, Mr. Chidambaram said adding that the government will take appropriate steps in this regard.
The key to restart the growth engine is to attract more investment, both from domestic investors and foreign investors, Mr. Chidambaram said. "Since investment is an act of faith, we must remove any apprehension or distrust in the minds of investors. We will improve communication of our policies to potential investors", Mr. Chidambaram said. The aim will be to remove the perceived difficulties in doing business in India, including fears about undue regulatory burden or regulatory over-reach. Public sector enterprises which have large cash balances will be encouraged to restart investment. Proposals pending with the Foreign Investment Promotion Board will be processed and decisions taken expeditiously, Mr. Chidambaram said.
The government intends to work with manufacturers and exporters and implement appropriate short term and medium term measures to reverse the trend of sluggish growth in manufacturing and exports which are two key drivers of the economy, Mr. Chidambaram said. The government intends to find practical solutions to the problems that impede higher production or output in the coal, mining, petroleum, power, road transport, railway and port sectors. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs will examine the issues affecting each sector and take decisions that will lead to quantitative growth in these sectors, Mr. Chidambaram said.
The government aims to raise the level of investment to 38% of the GDP that was achieved in 2007-08, Mr. Chidambaram said. The Finance Minister said that Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and other schemes will be converged to meet the challenge of drought.
The government intends to fine tune policies and procedures that will facilitate capital flows into India, Mr. Chidambaram said. Clarity in tax laws, a stable tax regime, a non-adversarial tax administration, a fair mechanism for dispute resolution, and an independent judiciary will provide great assurance to investors, Mr. Chidambaram said. The government has recently appointed two committees -- one to examine anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) legal provisions and guidelines and the other to review taxation of the IT sector and Development Centres. Mr. Chidambaram said he has also directed a review of tax provisions that have a retrospective effect in order to find fair and reasonable solutions to pending as well as likely disputes between the Tax Departments and the Assessees concerned.
In the next few weeks, the government will announce a number of decisions to attract more people to invest in mutual funds, insurance policies and other well-designed instruments, Mr. Chidambaram said.
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh last month decided to refer the issue of implications on FIIs and portfolio investors of the amendment made to the Income Tax Act relating to the taxation of non-resident transfer of assets where the underlying asset is in India to the Expert Committee on anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR). "It is necessary to have clarity on the tax liability of portfolio investors and foreign institutional investors as a result of this amendment particularly when the investment is made through a registered stock exchange in accordance with SEBI guidelines and purely in the form of portfolio investment", the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) said in a statement issued on 30 July 2012. Any clarification needs to be harmonised with the GAAR guidelines and will have to address any residual concerns outside of GAAR, the PMO said.
Dr. Singh last month constituted an expert committee on anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) to undertake stakeholder consultations and finalise the guidelines for GAAR by 30 September 2012.
The government will unveil industrial production data for June 2012 on Thursday, 9 August 2012. Industrial production grew 2.4% in May 2012. Industrial production declined 0.9% in April 2012.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) last week said the El Nino weather pattern is likely to reduce rains again in the second half of the June to September monsoon season. The IMD said rains over the entire June to September season are now expected to be less than 90% of long-term average. This is lower than IMD's previous forecast of 96%. Monsoon rains are considered deficient -- a drought in layman's terms -- if they fall below 90% of a 50-year average. Between June 1 and August 1, rainfall was about 19% below normal. The IMD expects normal rains in August -- a critical month for summer crops. It expects rainfall to be 5-6% below average in September due to the possibility of El Nino. The weather office said rainfall during August-September is expected to be 91% of the long-term average.
The rainfall distribution has been erratic this year as major crop- growing regions such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana have received scanty showers threatening the prospects of summer crops. A panel of Indian ministers last week approved steps to contain the impact of a near-drought situation. The steps include providing a diesel-price subsidy to farmers, increasing the subsidy on seed supplies and removal of the import tax on oilmeals.
Insufficient rainfall could lead to higher food inflation. There will be an impact on foodgrain output, but it is too early to give any estimate, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar last week. Mr. Pawar said the government will raise subsidies for the supply of various seeds for alternate crops in affected areas.
The monsoon rains--which make up around 70% of India's annual rainfall--are crucial to the nation's agriculture sector and broader economy. More than 60% of the country's farmland is rain-fed. The timing, distribution and quantity of rainfall are all important for crops. The four-month southwest monsoon season that starts from June accounts for almost 70% of total annual moisture that Indian soil receives in a year. A bad monsoon will have a larger impact on inflation than on growth as agriculture output constitutes a relatively small portion of India's economy, Indian central bank officials said on 1 August 2012, in a conference call following the release of its monetary policy review on 31 July 2012. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 8% after first quarter review of Monetary Policy 2012-13 in an effort to keep a lid on inflation and inflation expectations. The RBI, however, lowered banks' statutory liquidity ratio, or the part of deposits that must be invested mainly in government bonds, by a percentage point to 23% to ensure that liquidity pressures do not constrain the flow of credit to productive sectors of the economy.
Principal adviser to the Planning Commission Pronab Sen last month said slowing investment due to weak confidence in the economy is hurting growth. Mr. Sen said Indian companies aren't facing any shortage of funds. Many of them are sitting on piles of cash and aren't even repatriating overseas borrowings, he added.
The government should take steps to meet the fiscal deficit target set out in the budget and that would improve sentiment and revive investments, Mr. Sen said. He said the government should scale back its spending and slash subsidies on fuels, food and fertilizers to help check its budget deficit.
Slowing growth in investment remains a cause for concern for India. Investment makes up 35% of India's economic activity.
A comprehensive Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill is among the 31 Bills the government has lined up for consideration and passing during the monsoon session of Parliament, which begins today, 8 August 2012. Among the other bills include those on Forward Contracts, Banking laws, whistle-blowers and women's reservation as also the Prevention of Bribery of Foreign Public Officials bill. The monsoon session of Parliament will conclude on September 7.
Hamid Ansari has been re-elected as India's vice-president. A nominee of the ruling Congress-led alliance, the 75-year-old Ansari defeated opposition-backed rival Jaswant Singh by 252 votes for the largely ceremonial post. An electoral college of members of parliament elects the vice-president, who also acts as chairperson of the Rajya Sabha. Of the 736 votes cast, Ansari got 490 votes while Jaswant Singh got 238. Eight votes were declared invalid.
An India-Mauritius joint panel will discuss a series of proposals to review the double taxation avoidance treaty between the two nations on 22-24 August in Mauritius. India has been looking to negotiate the double taxation avoidance agreement with Mauritius for the past few years to check so-called round tripping and other potential abuses. Round tripping entails moving money out of one country to another, and getting it back under the garb of foreign capital. Capital gains tax is close to zero in Mauritius and almost 40% of investments into India come through the island nation. Under the bilateral agreement, capital gains from sale of securities can be taxed only in Mauritius. The India-Mauritius joint working group will also discuss the inclusion of a so-called limitation of benefit clause, similar to the Singapore tax treaty with India, to ensure only genuine Mauritius-based companies are benefited. India's tax agreement with Singapore says that only those companies that spend a minimum of $200,000 (about Rs 1 crore) in Singapore can avail the benefits of the treaty.
Sanctity of tax residency certificates issued by a country to companies operating in its jurisdiction to enable the firms to claim tax benefits under various treaties is another issue between India and Mauritius. While India in this year's national budget said the certificates are a necessary but not sufficient condition, Mauritius wants those issued by it honoured. Draft guidelines issued by Indian government for implementing the controversial anti-avoidance tax proposal viz. the GAAR state that GAAR provisions should be invoked on a foreign institutional investor (FII), if it chooses to take a treaty benefit, but would not in any case be invoked in the case of the non-resident investors of the FII. The draft guidelines suggested that the onus of proving wrongdoing should be on the authorities.
Investors' focus is currently on Q1 June 2012 earnings. Tata Motors and Ranbaxy Laboratories unveil quarterly results tomorrow, 9 August 2012. State Bank of India, Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries, Siemens and BPCL announce quarterly results on Friday, 10 August 2012. ONGC announces Q1 results on Saturday, 11 August 2012. Tata Steel and Coal India unveil Q1 results on 13 August 2012. Hindalco Industries, Reliance Infrastructure and IDFC will unveil Q1 results on 14 August 2012.
Asian stock markets rose to a three-month high on Wednesday (August 8, 2012), supported by expectations that policymakers will soon decisively address the euro zone fiscal crisis and declining global growth. Key benchmark indices in China, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea rose by between 0.13% to 1.63%. Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.09%.
China is due to release a slew of July data including inflation, industrial production, retail sales and inflation on Thursday, 9 August 2012, which investors will comb through to gauge the health of the world's second-largest economy.
The Bank of Korea is set to consider cutting rates for a second month tomorrow, while the Bank of Japan starts a two-day policy meeting today.
German factory orders declined much more than consensus forecast in June, as sales to euro area countries slumped amid recession-like conditions across most of the region. German factory orders fell at a seasonally-adjusted rate of 1.7% in June, as domestic orders dropped 2.1% and orders from within the eurozone fell 4.9%, the Economics Ministry reported Tuesday.
Germany's Federal Constitutional Court will announce a decision on lawsuits challenging the country's participation in the permanent euro-zone rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, and the fiscal pact on 12 September 2012. The court held a public hearing earlier this month to examine complaints that participation in the fund and the fiscal pact violated German law by taking some authority over the national budget away from parliament.
Italy's economy contracted for a fourth straight quarter in the three months ended June, as a protracted eurozone debt crisis continued to take its toll on bigger European nations. Italy's economy contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2012, Rome-based national statistics institute Istat said in a preliminary report on Tuesday.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday revised Greece's outlook to negative, saying the debt-ridden euro zone country could need more help from its international creditors. "Following delays in implementing budgetary consolidation measures and a worsening Greek economy, we believe Greece is likely to require additional financing for 2012 under the EU/International Monetary Fund (IMF) program," S&P said in a statement. "We are revising the outlook on the long-term ratings on Greece to negative, reflecting the possibility of a downgrade if Greece fails to secure the next disbursement of the EU/IMF Program," S&P said.
US Stocks extended gains on Tuesday, on expectations that the European Central Bank will soon take action to combat the euro zone's debt crisis.
Election for a new president in the United States, the world's biggest economy, is scheduled on 6 November 2012.
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