Key benchmark indices languished in the negative terrain in mid-morning trade. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was down 140.89 points or 0.55%, up close to 90 points from the day's low and off about 270 points from the day's high. The market sentiment was affected adversely after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday, 9 June 2014, said that rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2014 southwest monsoon season is likely to be below normal as the chances of El Nino occurring during monsoon are very high. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative. The BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices were off almost 1% each.
Metal and mining stocks declined. Among auto shares, Bajaj Auto hit 52-week high.
A bout of volatility was witnessed as key benchmark indices slipped into the red after opening higher. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex and the 50-unit CNX Nifty, both, slipped into the red after scaling record high in opening trade. Volatility continued as key benchmark indices trimmed losses after hitting fresh intraday low in morning trade. The Sensex languished in the negative terrain in mid-morning trade.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 536.68 crore on Monday, 9 June 2014, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges.
At 11:20 IST, the S&P BSE Sensex was down 140.89 points or 0.55% to 25,439.32. The index fell 232.88 points at the day's low of 25,347.33 in morning trade, its lowest level since 6 June 2014. The index rose 130.90 points at the day's high of 25,711.11 in early trade, a lifetime high for the index.
The CNX Nifty was down 52.35 points or 0.68% to 7,602.25. The index hit a low of 7,579.30 in intraday trade, its lowest level since 6 June 2014. The index hit a high of 7,683.20 in intraday trade, a lifetime high for the index.
The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 83.29 points or 0.9% at 9,153.86. The BSE Small-Cap index was down 87.65 points or 0.88% at 9,903.40. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
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The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative. On BSE, 1,435 shares fell and 1,099 shares rose. A total of 62 shares were unchanged.
Tata Power Company (down 2.86%), ONGC (down 2.22%) and NTPC (down 1.78%) edged lower from the Sensex pack.
Metal and mining stocks declined. NMDC (down 1.93% to Rs 187.70), Sesa Sterlite (down 4.45% to Rs 293.95), JSW Steel (down 0.92% to Rs 1,291.40), Jindal Steel & Power (down 2.54% to Rs 331.50), National Aluminium Company (down 2.58% to Rs 54.70), Tata Steel (down 2.27% to Rs 557.80), Steel Authority of India (Sail) (down 4.13% to Rs 105.60), Hindustan Zinc (down 2.21% to Rs 177) and Hindalco Industries (down 2.99% to Rs 164) edged lower. But, Hindustan Copper gained 4.36% to Rs 117.65.
Bajaj Auto rose 1.23% to Rs 2,183 after hitting 52-week high of Rs 2,207.20 in intraday trade.
Oriental Bank of Commerce dropped 3.84% at Rs 351 as the stock turned ex-dividend today, 10 June 2014, for final dividend of Rs 3.60 per share for the year ended 31 March 2014.
VTM lost 2.12% to Rs 18.50 as the stock turned ex-dividend today, 10 June 2014, for final dividend of Rs 0.70 per share for the year ended 31 March 2014.
Sundram Fasteners lost 3.07% at Rs 93 as the stock turned ex-dividend today, 10 June 2014, for second interim dividend of Rs 1 per share for the year ended 31 March 2014.
In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 59.28, compared with its close of 59.20/21 on Monday, 9 June 2014.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday, 9 June 2014, said rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2014 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be below normal (90-96% of long period average). Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of the long period average with a model error of 4%. Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 85% of LPA over North-West India, 94% of LPA over Central India, 93% of LPA over South Peninsula and 99% of LPA over North-East India, all with a model error of 8 %. The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 93% of its LPA during July and 96% of LPA during August both with a model error of 9.
After IMD's forecast of below normal rains this year, Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh on Monday, 9 June 2014, reaffirmed government's seriousness in tackling any situation arising out of poor monsoon. Contingency plans are already in place, state governments have been suitably advised, sufficient foodstocks are in place, and quick action will be taken to tackle any situation arising out of deficient monsoon, he said. Storage position in major reservoirs across the country, except in Southern India, is satisfactory, the Ministry of Agriculture said. Crop contingency plans have been developed for 500 out of about 540 agricultural districts by Central Research Institute of Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA) in collaboration with State Agricultural Universities and concerned state governments to deal with challenges posed by aberrant monsoon.
India's farm sector accounts for 14% of India's nearly $2 trillion economy, with two-thirds of its 1.2 billion population living in rural areas.
Rains are vital to rejuvenate an economy battling its longest economic slowdown since the 1980s and to cool inflation running close to double digits. The new government on Monday made fighting food inflation its top priority.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Monday, 9 June 2014, said at a Pre-Budget Meeting with the finance ministers of all states and union territories that the Centre and the states must complement each other in managing the economy and the fiscal policy. Goods and Services Taxes (GST) is one pending issue on which consensus needs to be built and implementation done at an early date, Jaitley said. Implementation of GST has the potential to significantly improve the growth story, he said.
Jaitley said the government is committed to breaking the vicious cycle of high inflation and high interest rates.
Jaitley is expected to table Union Budget for 2014-15 in Lok Sabha by mid-July 2014. An interim budget was presented by P. Chidambaram in February this year. Essentially, in the nature of a vote on account, the interim budget was intended to get Parliament approval for expenditure to be incurred during the first few months of fiscal year 2014-15 due to Lok Sabha elections.
On the macro front, the government will unveil industrial production data for April 2014 on Thursday, 12 June 2014. Industrial production shrank for a second straight month in March 2014. Industrial production declined 0.5% in March 2014, compared with a contraction of 1.8% in February 2014.
The government is scheduled to announce data on inflation based on the combined consumer price index (CPI) for rural and urban India for May 2014 on Thursday, 12 June 2014. Inflation based on the CPI accelerated to 8.59% (provisional) in April 2014, from 8.31% (final) in March 2014. Core CPI which excludes food and energy prices eased to 7.8% in April 2014, from 7.81% in March 2014.
The government will announce data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for May 2014 on 16 June 2014. The annual rate of inflation based on monthly wholesale price index WPI eased to 5.2% for the month of April 2014 from 5.7% in March 2014, helped by a decline in fuel prices.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) next undertakes monetary policy review on 5 August 2014. The RBI kept its main lending rate -- repo rate -- unchanged at 8% after a monetary policy review on 3 June 2014. The central bank at that time signaled it would ease monetary policy if inflation slows faster than targeted.
Asia stocks edged up on Tuesday, 10 June 2014, after a record close for US stocks on Monday on the back of economic optimism in the US. Key benchmark indices in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea and China were up 0.48% to 0.86%. Key benchmark indices in Japan and Singapore were off 0.36% to 0.68%.
China's central bank said it will cut the level of deposits that banks have to keep with it by 50 basis points for some lenders, a move aimed at freeing up more cash for loans to bolster flagging economic growth. The People's Bank of China said in a statement that the reduction would be effective from June 16, and will apply to banks whose new loans to the farm sector last year exceeded 50% of total new lending for 2014. It is also a requirement that outstanding loans to the farming sector exceeds 30% of total outstanding loans. The central bank said in a short statement that current liquidity in China's banking system was ample, and that the direction of the country's monetary policy had not changed.
China's inflation accelerated in May to the fastest pace in four months on food costs, while a decline in factory-gate prices moderated. Consumer prices rose 2.5% from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Beijing. The producer-price index fell 1.4% after a 2% decline the previous month.
Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could fall 16 points at the opening bell on Tuesday, 10 June 2014. US stocks rose on Monday, with benchmark indexes extending records, as small-cap shares rallied and Family Dollar Stores Inc. advanced with Analog Devices Inc. amid deals activity.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next undertakes monetary policy review at a two-day meeting on 17-18 June 2014. The Fed on 30 April 2014 said after a monetary policy review that it will keep the benchmark interest-rate target at almost zero for a "considerable time" after its bond-buying program ends. The FOMC also reduced monthly debt purchases to $45 billion, its fourth straight $10 billion cut, and said further reductions are likely in "measured steps" if the economy continues to improve.
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