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Nifty hits 2-week high on rate cut hopes

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Last Updated : Apr 16 2014 | 8:56 AM IST

Key benchmark indices surged as steep drop this week in gold and oil prices eased concerns of high current account and fiscal deficit and Monday's data showing easing of wholesale price index triggered expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, jumped 387.13 points or 2.11%, up close to 420 points from day's low and off about 25 points from the day's high. The S&P BSE Sensex attained its highest closing level in almost two weeks. The 50-unit CNX Nifty attained two-week closing high. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive.

Indian stocks gained for the second straight day today, 16 April 2013. From a recent low of 18242.56 on 12 April 2013, the Sensex has gained 502.37 points or 2.75% in two trading sessions. The Sensex has fallen 90.84 points or 0.48% in this month so far (till 16 April 2013). The Sensex has declined 681.78 points or 3.5% in calendar 2013 so far (till 16 April 2013). From a 52-week high of 20,203.66 on 29 January 2013, the Sensex has declined 1,458.73 points or 7.22%. From a 52-week low of 15,748.98 on 4 June 2012, the Sensex has surged 2,995.95 points or 19.02%.

Coming back to today's trade, index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) gained ahead of its Q4 results today, 16 April 2013. Another index heavyweight and cigarette major also moved higher. FMCG stocks gained on reports of likely normal monsoon this year. Interest rate sensitive realty, banking and auto stocks edged higher as slowing wholesale price inflation has raised rate cut expectations.

Key benchmark indices reversed initial fall and moved into positive zone. Key benchmark indices surged to strike intraday high in morning trade as Asian stocks reversed initial decline. Key benchmark indices extended gain to strike fresh intraday high in mid-morning trade. The market moved up further to hit fresh intraday high in early afternoon trade. The S&P BSE Sensex and the 50-unit CNX Nifty, both, hit their highest level in over 1-1/2-week. Key benchmark indices held firm after striking fresh intraday high in afternoon trade. The Sensex extended intraday gains to strike fresh intraday high in mid-afternoon trade. The S&P BSE Sensex and the 50-unit CNX Nifty, both, hit their highest level in nearly 2 weeks.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 418.37 crore on Monday, 15 April 2013, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges.

The S&P BSE Sensex jumped 387.13 points or 2.11% to settle at 18,744.93, its highest closing level since 3 April 2013. The index jumped 413.53 points at the day's high of 18,771.33 in late trade. The index declined 32.07 points at the day's low of 18,325.73 in early trade.

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The CNX Nifty jumped 120.55 points or 2.16% to 5,688.95, its highest closing level since 2 April 2013. The index hit a high of 5,699.25 and a low of 5,555.85 in intraday trade.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.86% and the BSE Small-Cap index gained 0.43%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Bankex (up 2.94%), BSE Auto index (up 2.54%), BSE Capital Goods index (up 2.53%), BSE Power index (up 2.42%), and BSE Realty index (up 2.29%) outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE IT index (down 0.5%), BSE Teck index (own 0.09%), BSE Metal index (up 0.72%), BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.21%), BSE HealthCare index (up 1.46%), BSE Oil & Gas index (up 1.86%) and BSE PSU index (up 1.93%), underperformed the Sensex.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 1882 crore, lower than Rs 1931.84 crore on Monday, 15 April 2013.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. On BSE, 1,346 shares advanced and 1,002 shares declined. A total of 143 shares were unchanged.

Among the 30-share Sensex pack, 28 stocks advanced while only 2 of them declined.

ONGC (up 3.87%) and HDFC (3.84%), surged from the Sensex pack.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1.13% at Rs 802.50. The scrip hit high of Rs 809.50 and a low of Rs 786.20. RIL announces Q4 results today, 16 April 2013.

FMCG stocks gained on reports of likely normal monsoon this year. FMCG companies derive a substantial revenue from rural markets. Marico, Nestle India, Tata Global Beverages, Dabur India and Hindustan Unilever rose by 0.56% to 2.48%.

Index heavyweight and cigarette major ITC rose 2.27% to Rs 306.75. The scrip hit high of Rs 310 and a low of Rs 298. The stock had hit record high of Rs 310.75 on 4 February 2013. The government raised the excise duty on cigarettes by about 18% on all cigarettes except cigarettes of length not exceeding 65 mm in Union Budget 2013-14, which was unveiled on 28 February 2013.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) gained 0.64% ahead of its Q4 results tomorrow, 17 April 2013.

Wipro rose 0.43%. The company after market hours on Monday, 15 April 2013 said that the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has accepted the company's request and permitted the promoter and promoter group (including the entities that carried out the inter-se transfer) to divest through the offer for sale (OFS) route during the twelve weeks cool off period. Earlier, Wipro had on 25 March 2013 applied to SEBI seeking a specific relaxation exemption from the twelve week cooling off period for carrying out OFS through the stock exchange mechanism following the inter-se transfer amongst the promoter and promoter group entities on 15 March 2013.

Infosys fell 1.71%. The company before market hours today, 16 April 2013 said it has signed a major new strategic partnership with Queen's University Belfast aimed at combating the global cyber security threat. The collaboration brings together Infosys with Queen's University Belfast's Centre for Secure Information Technologies (CSIT), one of UK's largest and most prestigious university cyber security research labs, and Invest Northern Ireland, the Northern Ireland government's regional business development agency.

The three-year agreement will lead to the establishment of a CSIT-lnfosys Cyber Lab that will become part of a global network of companies and institutions developing security technologies. As part of the CSIT advisory and governing board, Infosys will play a key role in developing the centre's research roadmap and gain access to its research and technologies for commercial usage.

Welcoming the agreement, Senior Vice President, Infosys Labs and Products R&D, Subu Goparaju said: "The rise of cloud and mobility solutions has only increased the need for greater cyber security. This is a top concern we hear from executives around the globe. Our partnership with Queen's University will provide Infosys insights into cyber-crimes and access to the important work being done at CSIT. We believe the outcome of this partnership will not only result in stronger products for our clients, but in a safer digital world."

Aviation stocks were mostly higher on fall in crude oil prices. SpiceJet (up 3.25%) and Jet Airways (India) (up 0.85%) edged higher. But, Kingfisher Airlines was locked at 5% lower circuit.

PSU OMCs revise jet fuel prices on the 1st and 16th of every month based on the average international crude price in the preceding fortnight. Aviation turbine fuel or jet fuel constitutes more than 50% of operating cost for airliners. Prices of jet fuel are directly linked to crude oil prices

Auto stocks edged higher as slowing wholesale price inflation has raised rate cut expectations. Purchases of automobiles, including that of cars, utility vehicles and commercial vehicles are substantially driven by financing.

Tata Motors rose 0.59%. The company on 12 April 2013 said that its global wholesales, including Jaguar Land Rover were 116,521 units in March 2013. Cumulative wholesales for the year ended 31 March 2013 (FY 2013) were 1,196,416 units.

Tata Motors' British luxury car unit Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) on 10 April 2013 said its global sales rose 16% to a record 53,772 units in March 2013 over March 2012. JLR's global sales rose 17% to a record 115,504 units in Q1 March 2013 over Q1 March 2012. JLR said the Jaguar brand demonstrated strong growth with sales of 9,856 in March up 28% and sales for the quarter of 20,210 up 31%. Land Rover, meanwhile, delivered the best single month and quarter in its 65 year history with March sales of 43,916, up 14% and quarter one sales of 95,294, up 15% versus 2012, JLR said.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) gained 3.95%. The company after market hours on 12 April 2013 announced that its new Sub 4 metre Verito will be named the 'Verito Vibe'. The much awaited launch of the 'Verito Vibe' is scheduled next month. The 'Verito Vibe' is indigenously designed and developed by M&M and is smartly packaged in a sub-4 metre length on the proven Verito platform, M&M said.

The 'Verito Vibe' will be packaging the well acclaimed strengths of class-leading space and comfort, robust build and the ever reliable 1.5 Litre dCi Diesel Engine. The Verito Vibe will sport some first in class styling elements in this younger and sportier avatar. M&M has decided on the name 'Vibe' for its newest offering, with the aim of conveying a distinctive youthful and vibrant imagery. 'Vibe' targets the socially aware, young consumer of today, M&M said.

Small-car maker Maruti Suzuki India edged higher after reduction in petrol price. The stock was up 4.23%.

Shares of two-wheeler makers rose after PSU OMCs reduced petrol prices by Rs 1 per litre on Monday. Hero MotoCorp (up 3.55%) and Bajaj Auto (up 2.45%) gained.

PSU OMCs announced cut in petrol price by Re 1 per litre, excluding value added tax (VAT), effective midnight Monday because of fall in international oil prices. The recent cut in petrol price comes on the back of 85 paise a litre reduction in rates on 2 April 2013 and Rs 2 a litre decrease effected on 16 March 2013.

Metal stocks were mixed. Hindalco Industries, Jindal Steel & Power and JSW Steel rose by 1.81% to 4.15%. Bhushan Steel and Hindustan Zinc shed by 0.29% to 4.26%.

Sterlite Industries (India) slipped 1.28% to Rs 85.10 after hitting a 52-week low of Rs 83.15 in intraday trade today, 16 April 2013.

Tata Steel rose 1.24% to Rs 298.20. The stock recovered after hitting a 52-week low of Rs 292.70 in intraday trade today, 16 April 2013.

Sail gained 1.74% to Rs 58.45. The stock recovered after hitting a 52-week low of Rs 56.40 in intraday trade today, 16 April 2013.

Telecom stocks were in demand. MTNL, Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra), Reliance Communications, Idea Cellular and Bharti Airtel rose by 0.25% to 6.53%.

Cairn India lost 0.59% as US crude oil futures slipped to the lowest level in almost four months amid signs global economic growth may slow, curbing fuel demand. US crude oil futures for May 2013 delivery were down 44 cents a barrel at $88.27 a barrel in the electronic trading today, 16 April 2013. The contract had tumbled $2.58 a barrel or 2.82% to settle at $88.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday, 15 April 2013, its lowest closing level since 24 December 2012. Lower crude oil prices will result in lower realizations from crude sales for oil exploration firms like Cairn India.

PSU OMCs rose as US crude oil futures slipped to the lowest level in almost four months amid signs global economic growth may slow, curbing fuel demand. HPCL, BPCL and Indian Oil Corporation rose by 0.43% to 2.72%. Lower crude oil price will reduce under-recovery of PSU OMCs on domestic sales of diesel, LPG and kerosene at government controlled prices. In January 2013, the government allowed PSU OMCs to raise diesel prices in small measures at regular intervals while completely deregulating diesel prices sold to institutional or bulk buyers.

PSU OMCs announced cut in petrol price by Re 1 per litre, excluding value added tax (VAT), effective midnight Monday because of fall in international oil prices. The recent cut in petrol price comes on the back of 85 paise a litre reduction in rates on 2 April 2013 and Rs 2 a litre decrease effected on 16 March 2013. The government deregulated petrol prices in June 2010.

Cement stocks gained. Ambuja Cement, ACC and UltraTech Cement rose by 2.28% to 3.2%.

Pharma stocks edged higher on renewed buying. Lupin, Dr Reddy's Laboratories and Ranbaxy Laboratories rose by 0.08% to 3.53%. Cipla fell 0.1%.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries rose 2.76% to Rs 894.30. The stock hit record high of Rs 894.70 in intraday trade today, 16 April 2013. The company on Monday, 15 April 2013, announced that the USFDA has granted its subsidiary, two tentative approvals for its Abbreviated New Drug Applications (ANDA) for generic version of Januvia, Sitagliptin Tablets and generic version of Glumetza, Metformin HCl Extended-release tablets.

Sitagliptin tablets, 25 mg, 50 mg and 100 mg are therapeutic equivalents of Merck Sharp & Dohme Corporation's Januvia tablets. Sitagliptin tablets have annual sales of approximately $2.7 billion in the US. Sitagliptin tablets are indicated as an adjunct to diet and exercise to improve glycemic control in adults with type-2 diabetes mellitus.

Metformin HCl Extended-release tablets, 500 mg and 1000 mg are therapeutic equivalents of Santarus Inc.'s Glumetza tablets. Metformin HCl Extended-release tablets have annual sales of approximately $140 million in the US. Metformin HCl Extended-release tablets are indicated as an adjunct to diet and exercise to improve glycemic control in adults with type-2 diabetes mellitus.

Tata Power advanced 2.02% after the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission in an order issued on Monday allowed the company to raise electricity tariffs on a temporary basis at its Mundra power plant on account of rising cost of imported coal. The CERC has allowed Coastal Gujarat Power, a unit of Tata Power that operates the plant in Gujarat, to charge "compensatory" tariffs for electricity until the fuel supply situation improves. The regulator will direct the setting up of a panel to finalise details of the compensatory tariff.

The order follows a similar ruling by the regulator earlier this month, which allowed Adani Power to raise tariffs for electricity from its power plant at Mundra.

Tata Power's 4,000-megawatt (MW) plant at Mundra runs on imported coal from Indonesia, but it has been suffering from mounting losses after the South East Asian nation raised levies on coal exports, which Tata Power has not been able to pass on to its customers so far.

Gold financing companies dropped after a recent steep slide in gold prices. Muthoot Finance (down 9.44%) and Manappuram Finance (down 9.77%) declined.

Gold finance companies run the risk of rising defaults on gold loans amid falling gold prices. Bullion metal prices plunged on Monday, 15 April 2013, as the metal extended its dive into a second straight session. Gold for June delivery ended lower by $140.3 (9.3%) at $1,361.1 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday. Prices had shed 4.7% last week.

Capital goods stocks rose on renewed buying. Punj Lloyd, Siemens, Bhel and ABB gained by 0.75% to 2.71%.

L&T advanced 3.23%. The company on 12 April 2013 said that it would acquire 50% stake in L&T-Komatsu (LTK) held by Komatsu Asia & Pacific Pte, a wholly owned subsidiary of Komatsu, Japan. With this buy-out, LTK will become a wholly owned subsidiary of L&T. LTK will continue to manufacture construction equipment and hydraulic components. Komatsu will be responsible for the production of Komatsu equipment including hydraulic excavators, L&T said in a statement.

As a result of this transaction, the companies expect to able to provide premium products and services to customers, and maintain leadership position in construction & mining equipments business, offering state-of-the-art machines with highest level of quality and latest designs from Komatsu, L&T said. L&T will continue to be responsible for marketing, sales and product support in India for the Komatsu range of products, assuring customers of the highest level of Support, L&T said in a statement.

Realty stocks gained for the second straight day as slowing wholesale price inflation has raised rate cut expectations. Purchases of both residential and commercial property are largely driven by finance. DLF, D B Realty, HDIL, Unitech and Sobha Developers rose by 1.24% to 5.28%.

Bank stocks edged higher as slowing wholesale price inflation has raised rate cut expectations.

State-run State Bank of India (SBI) rose 1.84%. SBI on 20 March 2013 said that the Executive Committee of the Central Board of the Bank, in its meeting held on 20 March 2013, approved the issuance and allotment of 1.29 crore equity shares at Rs 2,312.78 per share to the Government of India (GoI) by way of preferential allotment.

Among other PSU bank stocks, Canara Bank, Union Bank of India, Bank of India, Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank gained by 0.3% to 3.81%.

ICICI Bank advanced 2.43%. ICICI Bank announces Q4 results on 26 April 2013.

HDFC Bank rose 3.35%. HDFC Bank announces Q4 results on 23 April 2013.

The near term focus of the market is on Q4 results. Reliance Industries (RIL) announces Q4 results today, 16 April 2013. TCS announces Q4 results tomorrow, 17 April 2013. IndusInd Bank announces Q2 results on 18 April 2013. Wipro announces Q4 results on 19 April 2013. Cairn India announces Q4 results on 22 April 2013. UltraTech Cement announces Q4 results on the same day.

HDFC Bank announces Q4 results on 23 April 2013. Axis Bank will announce its Q4 March 2013 results on 24 April 2013. Hero MotoCorp, ICICI Bank and Maruti Suzuki unveil Q4 results on 26 April 2013. IDFC announces Q4 results on 1 May 2013. Bharti Airtel and Kotak Mahindra Bank unveil Q4 results on 2 May 2013. ACC and Ambuja Cements announce Q1 March 2013 results on 3 May 2013. HDFC announces Q4 results on 8 May 2013. Ranbaxy announces Q1 March 2013 results on the same day. Dr. Reddys Laboratories announces Q4 results on 14 May 2013. Bajaj Auto announces Q4 results on 16 May 2013.

Reduction of promoter stake to meet the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) mandated minimum public shareholding of 25% for private companies and 10% for state-run firms could result in supply of equity in the market over the next few months. As per the Sebi mandated minimum public shareholding rule, private-sector companies must cut founders' stake to adhere to the rules by 30 June 2013, while the deadline for state-run firms is 31 August 2013. PSU divestment will also add to share sale glut in FY 2014. The government has set a target of Rs 40000 crore from divestment of government stake in state-run firms and Rs 14000 crore from divestment of stake in non-government companies for FY 2014.

Inflation based on the monthly wholesale price index (WPI) eased the lowest level in 40 months at 5.96% in March 2013, and sharply lower than 6.84% in February 2013, data released by the government on Monday, 15 April 2013, showed. Non-food manufacturing inflation or core inflation slowed further to 3.41% in March 2013, the latest data showed. The government revised upwards WPI inflation for January 2013 to 7.31% from 6.62% reported earlier. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 5.96% compared to a build up rate of 7.69% in the corresponding period of the previous year, the Ministry of Commerce & Industry said in a statement.

The combined consumer price inflation for rural and urban India stood at 10.39% in March 2013, lower than 10.91% in February 2013, recent data showed. Inflation under the category 'food and beverages' stood at 12.42%, the data showed.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce the Monetary Policy Statement 2013-14 on 3 May 2013. The RBI cut its key policy rate viz. the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.5% after a mid-quarter monetary policy review on 19 March 2013. The key macroeconomic priorities are to raise the growth rate, restrain inflation pressures and mitigate the vulnerability of the external sector, RBI said at that time. Even as the policy stance emphasises addressing the growth risks, the headroom for further monetary easing remains quite limited, the RBI said. The RBI said it will continue to actively manage liquidity through various instruments, including open market operations (OMO), so as to ensure adequate flow of credit to productive sectors of the economy.

The index of industrial production rose 0.6% in February 2013, data released by the government on 12 April 2013 showed. Manufacturing sector recorded a growth of 2.2%. The mining sector registered a decline of 8.1% and electricity sector declined 3.2%. As per use-based classification, production of basic goods declined 1.8% and that of intermediate goods fell 0.7%. Capital goods production rose 9.5%. Production of consumer non-durables rose 2.9% whereas that of consumer durables shrunk 2.7%.

Industrial production rose 0.9% during the period April 2012 to February 2013.

The India Meteorological Department will issue its initial forecast of 2013 southwest monsoon in this month.

The finance ministry in October 2012 announced a five-year plan to cut fiscal deficit. The government hopes to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% by March 2017.

On the political front, the Congress led UPA government has been reduced to a minority government, with DMK removing support to the government in March this year citing differences on the issue of atrocities on Tamils in Sri Lanka. Earlier, the Trinamool Congress withdrew support to the government in September last year as it opposed economic reforms. The Samajwadi Party (SP) along with its regional rival in Uttar Pradesh Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) provide outside support to the UPA government. SP has 22 MPs in Lok Sabha and BSP has 21 MPs.

The second half of the Budget session of the Parliament begins on 22 April 2013. The government has lined up a number of key bills for consideration and passing during the Budget session of the parliament, which include The Forward Contracts (Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2010, The Pension Fund Regulator and Development Authority Bill, 2011, The Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill, 2011, The National Food Security Bill, 2011 and The Insurance Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2008. The Budget Session of the Parliament ends on 10 May 2013.

Assembly elections will be held in Karnataka on 5 May 2013 and the counting of votes and results of the election will be declared on 8 May 2013.

European markets edged lower on Tuesday, as concerns about global growth remained in the spotlight after Germany's ZEW index missed expectations. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were down by 0.47% to 0.72%.

Investors focused on data coming out of Germany, where the ZEW economic sentiment indicator fell to a lower-than-expected 36.3 level in April from 46.5 a month earlier.

Asian stocks reversed intraday losses on Tuesday. Key benchmark indices in South Korea, China, Taiwan, Indonesia and Singapore rose by 0.09% to 1.04%. Key benchmark indices in Japan and Hong Kong fell by 0.41% to 0.46%.

Chinese economic data came in weaker than expected, as the nation reported first quarter gross domestic product, March industrial output and other statistics on Monday, 15 April 2013. GDP for the January-March quarter rose 7.7% from a year earlier, weakening from 7.9% growth in the fourth quarter. Industrial production for March increased 8.9% from the year-earlier period, the weakest in more than a year and slowing from a 9.9% average rise for the January-February period, which China's statistics bureau reports in one figure due to seasonal distortions from the Lunar New Year holiday. March retail sales rose 12.6%, improving from 12.3% year-on-year growth in the January-February 2013 period, but far less than the 15.2% gain in December 2012.

Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday affirmed China's government's bond rating of Aa3 but cut the outlook to stable from positive, the second pessimistic revision by a foreign ratings agency this month. Last week, Fitch Ratings cut China's long-term local currency credit rating to A-plus from AA-minus, citing concerns about the risk that excessive local government borrowing posed to the wider economy. Moody's referred to the same issue in justifying its negative revision.

Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could gain 67 points at the opening bell on Tuesday, 16 April 2013. US stock indices fell the most in five months on Monday, 15 April 2013, after reports from China showed the industrial giant's growth had cooled.

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First Published: Apr 16 2013 | 4:32 PM IST

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