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Nifty trades with marginal gains; India VIX holds above 71 mark

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Capital Market
Last Updated : Mar 27 2020 | 12:50 PM IST
Key indices were trading with marginal gains in early afternoon trade. The Sensex and the Nifty displayed a wide variance. At 12:27 IST, the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was down 25.85 points or 0.09% at 29,920.91. The Nifty 50 index was up 55.9 points or 0.65% at 8,697.35.

The broader market was positive. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index was up 0.37% while the S&P BSE Small-Cap index was up 0.64%.

The market breadth was positive. On the BSE, 1152 shares rose and 918 shares fell. A total of 135 shares were unchanged. In Nifty 50 index, 25 stocks advanced while 25 stocks declined.

Derivatives:

The NSE's India VIX, a gauge of market's expectation of volatility over the near term, fell 0.46% to 71.19. The Nifty April 2020 futures were trading at 8,688.45, a premium of 16.2 points compared with the spot at 8,672.25.

On the options front, the Nifty option chain for 30 April 2020 expiry showed maximum call open interest (OI) of 13.54 lakh contracts at the 10,000 strike price. Maximum put OI of 16.72 lakh contracts was seen at 7,500 strike price.

Buzzing Index:

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Realty stocks advanced after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday slashed the key repo rate by 75 basis points, to help arrest the economic slowdown in the wake of the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak.

Meanwhile, RBI also permitted that banks to allow a three-month moratorium for on payment of EMIs on all term loans that were outstanding on March 1. However, this means that the final decision to provide such a relief is in the hands of the banks.

The Nifty Realty advanced 3.42% to 192.15. Mahindra Lifespace Developers (up 4.71%), Housing Development & Infrastructure (up 4.62%), DLF (up 3.66%), Indiabulls Real Estate (up 3.64%), Sunteck Realty (up 3.61%), Sobha (up 2.54%) and Omaxe (up 0.35%) rose.

Stocks in Spotlight:

Tata Motors fell 0.35% to Rs 70.55 amid profit booking after reporting gains in the past two sessions. Meanwhile, Moody's Investors Service on Thursday placed on review for downgrade Tata Motors' (TML) Ba3 corporate family rating and Ba3 senior unsecured debt rating. The outlook has been revised to ratings under review from negative. Offering the ratings rationale, Moody's said that the rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak, deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit effects of these developments are unprecedented. The automotive sector has been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment.

HDFC Life Insurance Company slumped 5.08% to Rs 453.20 after the media reported that promoter Standard Life will sell up to 5 crore shares or 2.5% equity stake in the company. On BSE, over 5.4 crore shares were traded in the HDFC Life counter so far, a 158.03 times surge over two-week average daily volume of 3.42 lakh shares. As on 31 December 2019, Standard Life (Mauritius Holdings) 2006 held 14.73% stake while Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) held 51.45% stake in HDFC Life Insurance Company.

RBI Action:

On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, the Reserve bank of India (RBI)'s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its meeting today (27 March 2020) decided to reduce the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 75 basis points to 4.40% from 5.15% with immediate effect. Accordingly, the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate stand reduced to 4.65% from 5.40%. Further, consequent upon the widening of the LAF corridor as detailed in the accompanying Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Polices, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands reduced by 90 basis points to 4%. The MPC also decided to continue with the accommodative stance as long as it is necessary to revive growth and mitigate the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the economy, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target.

RBI said the global economic activity has come to a near standstill as COVID-19 related lockdowns and social distancing are imposed across a widening swathe of affected countries. Expectations of a shallow recovery in 2020 from 2019's decade low in global growth have been dashed. The outlook is now heavily contingent upon the intensity, spread and duration of the pandemic. There is a rising probability that large parts of the global economy will slip into recession.

RBI added that GDP growth of 4.7% for Q4:2019-20 within the annual estimate of 5% for the year as a whole, is now at risk from the pandemic's impact on the economy. High frequency indicators suggest that private final consumption expenditure has been hit hardest, even as gross fixed capital formation has been in contraction since Q2:2019-20. On the supply side, the outlook for agriculture and allied activities appears to be the only silver lining, with food grains output at 292 million tonnes being 2.4% higher than a year ago. A pick-up in manufacturing and electricity generation pulled industrial production into positive territory in January 2020 after intermittent contraction and/or lacklustre activity over the past five months; however, more data will need to be watched to assess whether the recent uptick will endure in the face of COVID-19.

As a consequence of COVID-19, aggregate demand may weaken and ease core inflation further. Heightened volatility in financial markets could also have a bearing on inflation, it added. Apart from the continuing resilience of agriculture and allied activities, most other sectors of the economy will be adversely impacted by the pandemic. If COVID-19 is prolonged and supply chain disruptions get accentuated, the global slowdown could deepen, with adverse implications for India. Upside growth impulses are expected to emanate from monetary, fiscal and other policy measures and the early containment of COVID-19.

The MPC is of the view that macroeconomic risks, both on the demand and supply sides, brought on by the pandemic could be severe. The need of the hour is to do whatever is necessary to shield the domestic economy from the pandemic.

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First Published: Mar 27 2020 | 12:30 PM IST

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