Key benchmark indices edged lower after private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, said it expects the June-September monsoon to be below normal this year. The forecast of below-normal rains triggered worries that food price inflation will edge up. Increase in global crude oil prices also hit sentiment on the domestic bourses adversely as the barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, and the 50-unit CNX Nifty, both, hit their lowest level in more than a week. The Sensex was provisionally down 220.33 points or 0.98%, off close to 270 points from the day's high and up about 20 points from the day's low. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was weak. The BSE Small-Cap and BSE Mid-Cap indices lost more than 1% each.
Indian stocks dropped for the third day in a row today, 16 April 2014.
IndusInd Bank rose after good Q4 results. Interest rate sensitive realty stocks dropped. Capital goods stocks also edged lower.
Increase in crude oil prices triggered concerns about India's current account deficit and fiscal deficit. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced to a six-week high amid concern that the crisis in Ukraine is escalating. WTI for May delivery was up 85 cents or 0.82% at $104.60 a barrel. Brent for June delivery was up 63 cents or 0.58% at $109.99 a barrel. India imports majority of its crude oil requirements.
Ukraine began an offensive against separatists in its restive east, recapturing an airport amid claims that Russian special forces were supporting anti-government groups. Ukraine's offensive yesterday, 15 April 2014, marked its first foray against armed activists holding government buildings in cities near the Russian border. Ukraine's Interior Ministry units ousted pro-Russian activists who had seized the airfield in Kramatorsk. Russia is the world's biggest energy exporter.
A bout of initial volatility was witnessed as key benchmark indices regained positive terrain after slipping into the red for a brief period after opening slightly higher. Volatility continued as key benchmark indices regained positive once again after reversing intraday gains in morning trade. Key benchmark indices were trading marginally higher in mid-morning trade, having moved in a narrow range. The Sensex slipped into the red in early afternoon trade. Key benchmark indices extended losses and hit fresh intraday low in afternoon trade. A bout of volatility was witnessed as key benchmark indices trimmed losses after hitting fresh intraday low in mid-afternoon trade. The Sensex extended losses and hit fresh intraday low in late trade.
As per provisional figures, the S&P BSE Sensex was down 220.33 points or 0.98% to 22,264.60. The index declined 237.54 points at the day's low of 22,247.39 in late trade, its lowest level since 7 April 2014. The index rose 48.69 points at the day's high of 22,533.61 in early trade.
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The CNX Nifty was down 61.60 points or 0.91% to 6,671.50, as per provisional figures. The index hit a low of 6,665.15 in intraday trade, its lowest level since 7 April 2014. The index hit a high of 6,748.65 in intraday trade.
The BSE Mid-Cap index lost 79.23 points or 1.08% at 7,232.76. The BSE Small-Cap index shed 83.28 points or 1.11% at 7,418.22. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 2649 crore, lower than Rs 2875.18 crore on Tuesday, 15 April 2014.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was weak. On BSE, 1,650 shares declined and 1,092 shares gained. A total of 130 shares were unchanged.
Infosys (down 3.08%), Tata Power Company (down 3.55%) and Wipro (down 2.89%) edged lower from the Sensex pack.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 0.58% to Rs 943. The stock hit high of Rs 959 and low of Rs 938.20. RIL unveils Q4 results on Friday, 18 April 2014. The stock market remains closed on that day on account of Good Friday.
Interest rate sensitive realty stocks edged lower. DLF (down 4.79%), D B Realty (down 5.11%), Anant Raj (down 6.35%), Housing Development and Infrastructure (HDIL) (down 6.54%), Sobha Developers (down 0.57%) and Unitech (down 4.76%) declined.
Capital goods stocks edged lower. L&T (down 2.91%), Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) (down 3.2%), BEML (down 0.07%), Siemens (down 3.21%), Punj Lloyd (down 4.18%) and Thermax (down 1.4%) declined.
Crompton Greaves fell 1.15% to Rs 176.20, with the stock reversing gains triggered by reports the company's founding family is holding talks to sell its stake to Hitachi. The stock reversed direction after hitting 52-week high of Rs 188 in intraday trade. The company has clarified that it is not engaged in or informed of any negotiations regarding the rumored stake sale by the promoters of the company.
Tata Communications declined 1.8%. The company today, 16 April 2014, said it has further expanded its global data centre footprint by entering strategic partnerships with NEXTDC in Australia, Interxion in Germany and Austria and Pacific Link Telecom (PLT) in Malaysia. These partnerships will enable Tata Communications to extend its current data centre offerings in these regions and to deliver a uniform customer experience across geographies. As businesses go global, the addition of new geographies means customers can now have a single vendor operation and contract for a secure, robust and scalable data centre network, Tata Communications said.
Tata Communications has one million square feet of colocation space across the globe and these new state-of-the-art partner sites in Malaysia, Australia, Austria and Germany will act as extensions to further expand its global data centre footprint. Tata Communications' data centres are fully integrated into the company's global IP network, offering maximum traffic capacity into and out of its facilities, the company said in a statement.
Tata Communications is the only private subsea cable owner that has 100G deployed across major routes around the world on its own infrastructure. It also has the largest privately-owned submarine cable networks in the world, which accounts for over 20% of the world's internet routes. It includes the world's only wholly-owned sub-sea fibre network ring that circumvents the globe.
IndusInd Bank rose 0.59% after good Q4 results. The bank's net profit rose 28.83% to Rs 396.05 crore on 23.35% rise in total income to Rs 2702.19 crore in Q4 March 2014 over Q4 March 2013. The result was announced during market hours.
IndusInd Bank's ratio of gross non-performing assets (NPAs) to gross advances fell to 1.12% as on 31 March 2014, from 1.18% as on 31 December 2013 and but rose from 1.03% as on 31 March 2013. The ratio of net NPA to net advances rose to 0.33% as on 31 March 2014, from 0.31% each as on 31 December 2013 and 31 March 2013.
The bank's provisions and contingencies rose 47.28% to Rs 120.55 crore in Q4 March 2014 over Q4 March 2013. Provisions and contingencies dropped 4.44% to Rs 120.55 crore in Q4 March 2014 over Q3 December 2013.
During the quarter ended 31 March 2014, the bank decided to align the accounting policy on valuation of investments under Available for Sale (AFS) and Held for Trading (HFT) categories in line with RBI guidelines. Accordingly, the securities have been valued scrip-wise and depreciation/appreciation has been aggregated for each classification. While aggregate depreciation for each classification has been provided, the aggregate net appreciation, if any, for a classification has been ignored, IndusInd Bank said. As a result of the change, the provision for depreciation on AFS/HFT securities is lower by Rs 14.05 crore and consequently net profit for the quarter and year ended 31 March 2014 higher by Rs 9.27 crore, IndusInd Bank said in a footnote to the results.
The RBI permitted banks to distribute the net depreciation on the Available for Sale (AFS) and Held for Trading (HFT) portfolios as on each of the valuation dates in equal installments during the financial year 2013-2014. The bank amortised such depreciation during the quarters ended 30 September and 31 December 2013. In the Profit and Loss Account for the quarter and year ended 31 March 2014, IndusInd Bank has recognised depreciation in respect of the AFS and HFT portfolios in full.
In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar as stocks fell. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 60.385, compared with its close of 60.23/24 on Tuesday, 15 April 2014.
Private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, said it expects the June-September monsoon to be below normal this year. It has forecast the monsoon at 94% (error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 896 mm for the four-month period from June to September 2014. In terms of geographical risk, Skymet suggests that peninsular India will be at less risk through June, July, August and September (JJAS). There seems to be weakness in majority subdivisions in Northwest India viz. Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana and in West-Central India viz. East MP, West MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharshtra, Konkan & Goa, North Interior Karnataka and Telangana during the whole season, Skymet said in a statement. August is expected to be the best month among the four, although negative. It appears that onset of the monsoon may be staggered this time, Skymet said.
Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet said: "This weakness in monsoon could possibly be attributed to an evolving ENSO". The ENSO is a phenomenon wherein the Central and East Pacific ocean warms (El Ni) or cools (La Ni), in turn affecting the monsoon. El Ni is evolving as of now, but is expected to get arrested, Skymet said. There is only a 30% chance of this phenomenon getting stronger, it said. If this El Ni was amplifying, then there would be a stronger chance of drought, like in 2009, Skymet said. This does not seem to be the case at this point in time, it said. There is no clear signal about the emergence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year during monsoon, Skymet said.
According to Skymet, rains in June are expected at 90% of LPA (LPA = 174 mm). In July, the monsoon is expected at 94% of LPA (LPA = 285 mm). Rains in August are expected at 98% of LPA (LPA = 253 mm). Rains in September are expected at 90% of LPA (LPA = 184 mm).
The rate on inflation based all India general consumer price index (CPI) combined for urban and rural India accelerated to 8.31% (provisional) in March 2014, from 8.03% (final) in February 2014, led by increase in food prices, data released by the government after trading hours on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, showed. Core CPI inflation which excludes food and fuel prices eased to 7.82% in March 2014, from 7.84% in February 2014.
CPI inflation eased to 9.5% for the year ended 31 March 2014 (FY 2014), from 10.2% for the year ended 31 March 2013 (FY 2013).
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) next undertakes monetary policy review on 3 June 2014. The RBI left its main lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 8% after a monetary policy review on 1 April 2014, as consumer-price inflation eased to a two-year low and as the rupee firmed up against the dollar.
A major near term trigger for the stock market is the outcome of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The 36 days long voting process began on 7 April 2014 and will conclude on 12 May 2014. The results will be declared on 16 May 2014 after which India will get a new government. The term of the current Lok Sabha expires on 1 June and the new House has to be constituted by 31 May.
European stocks edged higher on Wednesday, 16 April 2014, with resource firms posting some of the biggest gains after better-than-expected growth data from China. Key benchmark indices in UK, France and Germany were up 0.35% to 0.95%.
A shock drop in March euro zone inflation to its lowest level since November 2009 was confirmed on Wednesday, keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to intervene should prices not rebound. The year-on-year inflation rate in the 18 countries sharing the euro was 0.5% in March against 0.7% in February, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat said. The biggest rise in prices was observed for tobacco, restaurants and bars as well as milk, cheese and eggs, while lower prices were recorded for heating oil, telecommunications and fuel.
Britain's unemployment rate fell more than forecast, dropping below the 7% threshold that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney set under the first stage of his forward-guidance policy. The jobless rate measured by International Labour Organization methods dropped to 6.9% in the three months through February from 7.2% in the quarter through January, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The report also showed that wage growth accelerated in the period to 1.7%, matching the inflation rate in February.
Asian stocks edged higher on Wednesday, 16 April 2014, as China reported data on economic growth for the January-to-March period which was better than estimates. Key benchmark indices in Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Taiwan were up 0.06% to 3.01%. In South Korea, Seoul Composite index was off 0.06 points at 1,992.21.
In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.17% in choppy trade. China's expansion slowed to the weakest pace in six quarters, testing leaders' commitment to keep reining in a credit boom and pollution as risks mount of missing a 7.5% annual growth target. However, the growth was slightly higher than market expectations. Gross domestic product rose 7.4% in the January-to-March period from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing.
Fixed-asset investment in non-rural areas of China rose 17.6% in the January-March period compared with the same period a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The rise in the closely watched indicator of construction activity was slower than the 17.9% increase recorded in the January-February period.
Retail sales in China rose 12.2% in March from a year earlier, accelerating from a 11.8% on-year rise for January and February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Retail sales also increased 1.23% in March from February. In February, they rose 0.71%.
China's industrial production grew 8.8% in March, slightly below market expectations of 9% growth.
Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could advance 80 points at the opening bell on Wednesday, 16 April 2014. US stocks rose in choppy trade on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, as earnings from Coca-Cola Co. and Johnson & Johnson overshadowed concerns that tensions in Ukraine are worsening.
The latest US economic data showed manufacturing in the New York region grew at a slower pace in April while the cost of living in the US rose more than projected in March as food and rents became more expensive. Confidence among US homebuilders rose less than forecast in April, as sales and prospective buyer traffic stagnated, showing the residential real estate market struggled to improve after a harsh winter.
The US Federal Reserve is considering further steps to force big banks to hold more capital, and sees a case for other stability-enhancing measures for more shadowy areas of Wall Street as well, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday. The Fed has been pushing banks to strengthen their balance sheets since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, and last week joined other regulators in requiring the eight largest US banks to increase their capital levels by some $68 billion in total.
She cited a 2010 study by the Basel Committee, an international standard-setting body, that suggested tighter standards would provide economic benefits.
The United States is in the process of implementing new international capital and liquidity standards known as Basel III, which will be phased in between 2015 and early 2019. The rules are meant to help banks weather short-term funding crises.
Yellen said the US central bank's staff was "actively considering" whether even more needed to be done to address risks in the so-called short-term wholesale funding market, which is a significant source of funding for firms.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next undertakes monetary policy review at a two-day meeting on 29-30 April 2014. The Federal Reserve on 19 March 2014 decided after the conclusion of a monetary policy review to trim its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion.
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