Poor rainfall during SW monsoon in July and August in Maharashtra and Karnataka to hit sugar output
On the basis of the second set of satellite images of sugarcane crop acreage across the country, obtained by Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) during the beginning of September 2015, ISMA has calculated its first advance estimates of sugar production during 2015-16 (October-September) sugar season (SS) based on estimates of sugarcane acreage, yields, recovery and cane drawal.In its first advance estimates of sugar production for 2015-16 SS, the ISMA has revised its estimated sugar production in 2015-16 SS to around 270 lakh tonnes down 4.6% over 283.1 lakh tonnes in 2014-15 SS, considering further poor rainfall during SW monsoon in July and also during August in Maharashtra and Karnataka. In the preliminary estimates released by ISMA in July 2015 for 2015-16 SS, the sugar production was estimated at 280 lakh tonnes.
On the basis of the September 2015 satellite images, ISMA has estimated the total cane acreage at 52.84 lakh hectares, which is just 0.4% less than 2014-15 SS.
In 2014-15 (till 15 September), sugar mills have produced 282.6 lakh tonnes of sugar and it is expected that mills may produce another 0.50 lakh tonnes in the remaining 15 days. It is estimated that about 251 lakh tonnes of sugar would be despatched by the mills for domestic consumption and it is expected that 11 lakh tonnes sugar will get exported during the season, till 30 September, 2015. It is, therefore, expected that closing stock of sugar at the end of 2014-15 SS would be around 96 lakh tonnes.
Statewise estimates
The total estimated cane acreage in Maharashtra is about 10.50 lakh hectares, which is almost at the same level as that of last year. Due to less rainfall in July and August, which are said to be important months in the growth of the cane crop, it is estimated that the yield per hectare may go down.
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However, it is also important to note that with better rainfall in September, there may be some revival in the situation. Therefore, ISMA has revised its earlier estimate of sugar production in Maharashtra for 2015-16 SS from 97 lakh tonnes to 90 lakh tonnes. This will be 14.3% less than actual sugar production in Maharashtra of 105.05 lakh tonnes in 2014-15 SS.
As per estimates made by ISMA, area under sugarcane in U.P. is estimated to be about 23.02 lakh tonnes, about similar to that in 2014-15 SS when it was 23.07 lakh hectares. During the current year, there was no heavy rainfall or flooding in the State like previous years and as such, there was no adverse impact on the crop in the State. Moreover, with improvement of cane variety in the State and large areas under better varieties, the cane yields and sugar recoveries are better. Considering these factors, it is expected that yield per hectare as well as sugar recovery % will improve in 2015-16 SS. Therefore, even with same cane acreage, estimated sugar production in U.P. is being revised by ISMA from 73.51 lakh tonnes to 75 lakh tonnes in 2015-16 SS. This was 71.01 lakh tonnes during 2014-15 SS.
During 2015-16, sugarcane acreage in Karnataka is seemed to have increased marginally. However, keeping in view the erratic monsoon in some parts of North Karnataka, yield is expected to be lower in 2015-16 SS. Therefore, it is estimated that about 46 lakh tonnes of sugar will be produced by the mills in Karnataka, i.e. 4 lakh tonnes lower than the sugar production in 2014-15 SS.
The rainfall in the entire State of Tamil Nadu during pre-monsoon and South West Monsoon period has been very good. Around 2.5 lakh hectares are expected to be under sugarcane cultivation, which is similar to 2014-15 SS. Sufficient rainfall in the monsoon period is expected to help increase sugarcane yields and sugar recovery. Therefore, it is estimated that the State will produce around 13.5 lakh tonnes of sugar in 2015-16, which will be about 1 lakh tonnes higher than 2014-15 SS.
The sugar production from Gujarat is expected to be around 11.5 lakh tonnes whereas from Andhra Pradesh & Telangana, it is expected to be around 8.5 lakh tonnes, almost similar to that of last year. Sugar production in Punjab and Haryana may go down slightly due to poor monsoon and drop in sugar yields/recovery etc. The sugar production in the case of other States viz. Bihar, Uttarakhand etc. is estimated to be almost at the same level as that of last year mainly because cane acreage is almost similar.
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