The number of Ebola cases in West Africa could reach as many as 550,000 to 1.4 million by Jan 20 in the worst-case scenario, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) warned in a report Tuesday.
The report, however, also noted that the higher projections are "very unlikely" since measures to contain the outbreak are "rapidly implemented and sustained", Xinhua reported.
The US agency developed a new modeling tool called EbolaResponse to estimate the potential number of future cases. The report was based on data from August but did not account for the ongoing international Ebola relief efforts.
In the worst-case scenario, the CDC researchers assumed that the Ebola cases are significantly underreported by a factor of 2.5 in Sierra Leone and Liberia, two of the three hardest-hit countries in West Africa.
Using this correction factor, the report estimated that approximately 21,000 total cases will have occurred in Liberia and Sierra Leone by Sep 30.
Reported cases in Liberia are doubling every 15 to 20 days, and those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30 to 40 days, it said.
If trends continued without additional interventions or changes in community behaviour, such as notable reductions in unsafe burial practices, Liberia and Sierra Leone will have a range of between 550,000 and 1.4 million Ebola cases by Jan. 20, it projected.