For almost a decade now, Maharaj K Pandit has been spending a lot of time in the eastern and western Himalayas studying the changes to the fragile ecology brought about by large-scale development projects. The current research of Pandit, who is the director of the Centre for Inter-disciplinary Studies of Mountain & Hill Environment (CISMHE) as also the director of the School of Environmental Studies at the University of Delhi, is tracking the biological signatures of climate change in the Himalayas. In a forthright response to the controversial report released last week by the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) which says the glacial retreat is not linked to climate change, Pandit says India oscillates between “a conspiracy of silence and a conspiracy of denial” on critical issues. Although his specialisation is biology, Pandit has been conducting multi-disciplinary research on the changing Himalayan environment and has come up with some startling findings. In an interview to Latha Jishnu, he says India cannot afford to ignore the warning signals of the glacial melt. Excerpts:
The report released last week by the MoEF says there is no evidence to suggest that the Himalayan glaciers have retreated because of climate change, and that they have not in any way exhibited an abnormal retreat.
Can you cite any authoritative study to confirm this?
One of the more interesting studies comes from scientists at the Key Laboratory of Biodiversity and Biogeography in Kunming, China, who collaborated with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. There is also the study by KK Rupa. The Chinese study says the challenges of climate change in the Himalayas can be addressed only through regional collaboration in scientific research and policy-making.
What are the other controversial points in the report?
It talks about a decreasing change in glacial retreat from the Western to Eastern Himalayas — higher in Kashmir and the lowest in Sikkim. It is a bit of a contradiction. On the one hand the report says that glaciers closer to sea levels are depleting faster (disregarding the latitudinal aspect), and on the other, it states that Eastern Himalayan glaciers, which are closer to sea level, are better off. This anomaly needs careful deliberation. Overall, the data is inadequate to draw any conclusions. In such critical cases, it is better to err on the side of caution rather than on misplaced optimism.
What have your own studies shown?
I am not an expert on the geophysics of glaciers. What we are doing at CISMHE is to find out if there are any biological signatures to this climate change, that is, if species are showing any change to changing patterns of climate. And we have found something startling. Some 115-odd plant species in Sikkim’s Lachung Valley have shown a significant northward shift of 500 feet to 1,000 feet in the past 200 years. This is an indication of how sensitive the Himalayas are. In the Alps, the average rate of such a shift is 65-100 feet. What we are witnessing here is colossal change, proof that the Himalayas are more sensitive to climate change.
Why is there so much controversy here about the glaciers?
There is little credible data available. Regrettably, most of the research institutions belong to the government and work under several political and bureaucratic constraints.
In which case, is the government’s plan to set up an institute of glaciology a good one?
The important thing is that it should be a credible institution consisting of independent scientists. If it’s made of the same administrators and the same government scientists, there is no point. It is essential that we involve the international scientific community in this endeavour because science is a global enterprise. It’s also important that we set up the institutional framework for it right away. Otherwise, 20 years hence when the crisis would be closing in, we would still be debating whether the glacial melt is happening and how serious it is.
If an official report says the glaciers are not retreating because of climate change, what is the message?
Although the fact that Himalayan glaciers are shrinking and retreating is widely accepted, the timing of such a report makes it seem part of the politics of the global climate change negotiations. Perhaps, it is to suggest there is no correlation between carbon emissions and climate change, and climate change and glacial retreat? The public response will oscillate between the “conspiracy of denial” and “conspiracy of silence”, depending on what suits you.
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In the ultimate analysis, does it matter whether glacial retreat is because of global warming or other factors?
You are absolutely right. My own finding is that number of other factors such as urban heat island effect, deforestation, expansion of agriculture and human settlements, and a quadrupling of the population density in the Himalayas since Independence would have contributed to changes in the regional climate. As I have said in my paper published in Conservation Biology, all these factors combined with global warming are a double whammy for the Himalayan ecosystems, including glaciers.
What are the other factors that are making the Himalayan ecosystem more vulnerable?
Forests are being cut down, urban expansion and development works are accelerating and so is agriculture. As many as 280-300 small and large dams are likely to be built on rivers across the five Himalayan states. Then there is this neo-religious tourism. What was once a trickle of a few thousand people making the trek to Amarnath, Gangotri and Yamunotri has now turned into a sea of devotees crowding these areas. This upsurge brings in a train of huge problems. Government policies are directly responsible for all of this.
Are there no integrated ecological and hydrological studies of the Himalayas?
In this country, rigid attitudes have prevented us from getting together and making a sense of how the natural ecosystem behaves. Sciences have been compartmentalised and there is little crossing-over of ideas between ecologists and hydrologists. We tried in a small way to bring these disparate issues together in the carrying capacity study of Teesta Basin and were able to conclude that integrated and inter-disciplinary studies were crucial for arriving at informed planning and administrative decisions.