Just a few months ago, when the agitation over the Amarnath land issue had boiled over and Srinagar was alternately paralysed and full of chanting crowds shouting “azaadi”, who would have thought that an election in Jammu & Kashmir was likely on schedule, and that it would succeed so spectacularly? Yet, the voter turnout has been a statement in itself; at 61 per cent, it is a qualitative improvement on the 44 per cent in the last Assembly elections, in 2002. The fear of Pakistan-sponsored terrorists in the state seems to be waning; and the separatist Hurriyat also realised that, even as it stayed away from the polls, it could not enforce a general boycott. To some degree, the successful conduct of the elections is a fall-out of the cease-fire accord between the former prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and General Musharraf still holding—a development that is independently reflected in the steady drop in Valley violence from year to year.
Another welcome outcome is that while the PDP’s ‘azaadi’ line helped it increase its vote share, and its seats from 16 to 21 in a House of 87, the party is not in a position to form the government. For one, the local Congress is not in favour of its erstwhile partner’s pro-Pakistan line; for another, the BJP’s dramatic turn in fortunes makes such an alliance shaky as the number of independents has shrunk from 22 to 10. The BJP is up from just one seat to 11, thanks mainly to its role in the Amarnath land agitation.
It might be a mistake to read into these developments a rejection of sentiment in the Kashmir valley for “azaadi”; but it should be obvious that they reflect greater acceptance of current reality and the need to deal with it on its own terms. The participation in the elections therefore marks a shift from outright rebellion (or fear of the rebels) to a more realistic willingness to participate in self-governance. Still, the state has had enough ups and downs in the past to preclude facile assumptions and conclusions; just as the outbreak of open rebellion in 1990 was the result of mishandling by New Delhi, any spark can light a new fire—as the Amarnath episode demonstrated.
It is vital now that those who run the administration ensure good governance and rapid economic development. The Kashmiri sense of exceptionalism is such that no one should hope for any kind of economism to replace even the most unrealistic political day-dreaming. Still, local demonstration of the Indian success in marrying democracy and development can and will make a difference. So it is doubly welcome news that Farooq Abdullah (who pretty much wasted the opportunities given to him when he was chief minister, not once but twice) has agreed to step aside and allow his son Omar to take charge of the reins of administration. The father cannot have been very energetic at 72; the son is young, at 38. But the latter has freshness and abundant goodwill on his side. Finally, quite a lot depends upon how the Congress party conducts itself. As a mature party with a national standing, it would be a good idea for it to let the National Conference rule the state — especially since it has by far the greater number of seats.