A demographic dilemma

MY WORD!

It was a Nasscom executive who put the New World Order in perspective. Yes, he said, in the coming decades India will face competition in fields like software services and business process outsourcing (BPO).

But by 2020 we will be the only country in the world left with enough manpower to meet global needs. "We have a sustained competitive advantage to 2020 because of sheer demographics. In terms of working age population India will be the only people-surplus country," he said.

Is there anything unusual about that statement? The truth of what the man from Nasscom said can hardly be contradicted. In fact, it's almost self-evident. But it was the first time I've ever heard anyone saying that our fast-reproducing population would work in our favour.

But that could be the unusual truth of the matter. As the world marches blithely into the 21st century it is, contrary to appearances, running short of people. It may not be immediately evident if you step into any Indian city or, indeed, if you decide to take an evening stroll along Chowringhee in Kolkata.

Of course, as you negotiate through the crowds on Chowringhee, it may be tough to look upon India's population as a plus point for the country's economic development.

Is that overstating the case? Perhaps. But consider the fact that by 2020 the even the world-beating Chinese will be facing the unimaginable "" a tiny population shortage. That will impair their efforts to compete in fields like high technology where India has a competitive advantage currently.

Once upon a time demographers reproduced figures about population shortages that would emerge at distant dates in the 21st century. But suddenly those dates aren't all that far away. By 2010 the United States labour force will be short by 5.6 million people.

The same story will be unfolding in every advanced country from Germany to Canada and even faraway New Zealand. Roman Catholic Italy is, in fact, the worst-hit in Europe.

By 2020 "" even that doesn't seem such a long time "" the Chinese will be confronting the problem of low birthrates. In fact, the Chinese are now being forced to face the fact that their one-child policy has, if anything, been too successful and it has resulted in the destruction of the family system. Now the Communist Government is studying ways to retrace its steps without causing too large a disruption in the existing social system.

Which parts of the world are immune from the working population shortage? Currently, there's only India, parts of South Asia and South-east Asia. A few years ago the Koreans imported labour to Japan. Now the Koreans themselves are running short of able-bodied workers.

As for Japan, it is one of the worst hit countries in the world. Bear in mind that the world's demographics have already altered dramatically. One survey recently pointed out that the number of people aged over 65 has risen from 131 million in 1950 to 420 million in 2000.

What should the world do about this gigantic problem that is staring it in the face? More importantly, what should India do about it? India's population problem has altered dramatically in recent years. Fertility levels in states like Tamil Nadu have dropped far more quickly than experts had predicted.

What's more, the experts were caught off-guard when birth rates began to fall suddenly. In Kerala schools are already reporting that they don't have enough students, which indicates the direction the state is moving.

For as long as anyone can remember the Government's slogan has been: Hum do, hamare do. Is it time to take a re-look at that slogan? Should we still be campaigning to persuade poorer people in this country to have fewer children?

Or, is it time to look at the entire issue once again in the light of what's happening in other parts of the world. Once upon a time these might have seemed like futuristic problems for the next century. But now in 2004 we are well and truly into the next century and its problems are racing to catch up with us.