A good monsoon

But farmers need strategic market intervention

This year's monsoon, which began to retreat from the agriculturally important northwestern region of the country from October 8 even while continuing to be active in several other areas, seems poised to become one of the longest and, in most respects, the best in recent times. Only on a few occasions in the past has the monsoon lingered on till as late as the second week of October. The monsoon's departure from the northwest is tending closer to the end of September or later rather than the normal time of mid-September, thus indicating a need for forecasters to revisit the monsoon's withdrawal schedule. The delayed exit is, however, good for the economy as it bodes well for the ensuing rabi season and restocking of reservoirs to support irrigation and hydel power production.

Performance-wise, though, the total countrywide rainfall in the official monsoon season (June to September) remained three per cent below average, and its dispersal over time and space proved tailor-made for agriculture and other monsoon-dependent economic activities. Statistically, most regions, barring central India, which received excess rainfall, experienced rain deficit of varying degrees. But from the agricultural perspective, the paucity was inconsequential because it mostly occurred either in irrigated tracts or in otherwise high rainfall zones, such as the northeast. Some pockets, notably in Karnataka, are the only exceptions where the rain deficit is worrisome.

The favourable monsoon is reflected in record kharif crop plantings and an anticipated all-time high output of most crops, except sugarcane. Early season projections by the agriculture ministry indicate about nine per cent growth in the overall kharif grain harvest thanks to a spectacular 60 per cent spurt in the output of pulses and 40 per cent in oilseeds, two critically import-dependent commodity groups. This apart, the total water stock in the 91 major reservoirs has surged 25 per cent above last year's level and is just two per cent short of the previous 10 years' average.

That said, the bitter fact that needs serious consideration is the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has once again failed to get its long range monsoon prognosis right despite a distinct improvement in its short range forecasting capability. Its April prediction had put likely rainfall at around 106 per cent of the normal with a model error of plus or minus four per cent. Actual rainfall has turned out to be off the mark by as much as nine per cent. Worse still, the IMD persisted with its original prediction till as late as a few days prior to the official end of the monsoon season. The disparity between the actual rainfall and the IMD's April prediction has consistently overshot the four per cent standard model error mark since 2010.

From the farmer's viewpoint, the monsoon's good run does not imply an unqualified blessing. Bumper production may further depress wholesale prices of most farm commodities. Unless a price crash is stemmed through strategic market interventions, not only will the gains of the benevolent monsoon be frittered away but also, and more disquietingly, they may prove counterproductive in the long run.